Aircraft numbers to grow more than double in the next 20 years

Published on : Wednesday, July 11, 2018


airbusAccording to the latest Global Market Forecast by Airbus the number of aircraft flying is expected to more than double by 2037.



It was predicted that half of the currently flying 21, 450 aircraft will still be afloat in the coming 20 years. Around 37,390 will take off increasing the world’s total by 123 per cent to 47,990.



The number of expected aircraft has surpassed the big forecast of Airbus in 2017 and is currently 11.3 per cent higher.The new planes will be mostly smaller with narrow-bodied jets and more than there-quarters of the deliveries will be from Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.



Boeing 737 will be the most enduring aircraft in aviation history and it was first flown 70-years earlier.



Among the predicted narrow-bodied planes the A321 NEO, a re-engined version of the aircraft pinning huge hopes. Its latest version has the capacity of holding more than  244 passengers and the long range variant can fly 4,600 miles which is the distance from Manchester to Seattle.



For the long, thin routes the economies of the A321 appears promising to 21st century airlines.



Using the same aircraft Primera Air has launched a network from Stansted to North America although the airline blamed late deliveries from Airbus that resulted in drastic cuts in its intended schedule.



A very similar number of single –aisle aircraft:29, 530 was predicted a year ago by Boeing’s global forecast.






As per Airbus the Wide-bodied aircraft, divided into medium, large and extra-large categories will be contributing to 24 percent of the new planes.



The ‘medium’ planes will have 230-300 seats and  a range of up to 5,750 miles like some versions of the A330 and Boeing 787.



Those with 300 to 350 seats is termed as large aircraft  having a range of 11,500 miles like the shorter version of the A350 and Boeing 777.



There will also be the ‘XL’ category with 350-plus seats and a range of 11,5000 miles. It is assumed that few these like will be the A380 Super Jumbo, the world’s biggest passenger plane that struggled for orders and whose production rate has slowed.




At present the Airbus has one-third of the current order backlog for large jets and the Boeing 777-300 is the leading contender.


Airbus also mentioned in the report that the planes were flying fuller than ever having 81.4 load factor.

A load factor of 70-75 per cent is considered satisfactory and Ryanair and easyJEt achieved a load factor in the mid-90s.



Airbus mentioned that over the past 30 years, the air transport’s ‘centre of gravity’ have shifted south and east. It was in the mid-Atlantic in the 1998 and reflected the domination of North America and western Europe.



Now the eastern Mediterranean  is showing growth of airlines in China, South Asia and the Middle East. This is further expected to shift towards the Arabian Peninsula in the coming three decades.

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