Baht to reverse soon after the market rally of 2017

Published on : Wednesday, March 22, 2017

indexBaht, the currency of Thailand is all prepared to overturn its course after riding an emerging market rally this year. Paul Mackel, HSBC Holdings Plc strategists expressed on a research note on Monday that ‘there is negative seasonality ahead” for the baht. Generally in the first quarter, the currency tends to do well as tourist number score high and then loses its impetus in April and getting weaker in May as Thai companies pay out dividends to overseas investors during this time of the year.

The seasonality is borne out in the baht’s performance over the last few decades. In the first quarter of last eight years through 2016, Baht has risen against the dollar. It has fallen in every May except 2007 and 2009 respectively.

As per the figures shown by the World Travel & Tourism Council, Thailand was highly dependent on travel and tourism sector till 2015 out of 30 biggest economies in the world. Last year, tourism sector contributed 17.7 percent to Thai GDP. Almost two-third of it came from overseas tourists. From November till March, tourist inflow brings maximum revenue as international visitors explore Thailand’s temples, beaches and night clubs majorly during this time of the year.

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