Published on : Wednesday, March 25, 2020
It is estimated by the IATA that the industry passenger revenues could plummet $252 billion due to the severity of travel restrictions and the expected global recession.
The figure stands 44 per cent below that for last year.
Severe travel restrictions will last for up to three months in this scenario and will be followed by a gradual economic recovery in the later part of the year.
IATA director general, Alexandre de Juniac said that on March 5th a previous analysis of up to a $113 billion revenue loss was made before the countries around the world introduced sweeping travel restrictions that largely eliminated the international travel market.
Gravest crisis is faced by the airline industry and within a matter of few the previous worst-case scenario is looking better than their latest estimates.
However, without immediate government relief measures, there will not be an industry left standing.Airlines need $200 billion in liquidity support simply to make it through.
Under the scenario, severe restrictions on travel are lifted after three months and the recovery in travel demand later this year is weakened by the impact of global recession on jobs and confidence.
As compared to 2019, full year passenger demand (revenue passenger kilometres) declines 38 per cent.
During the second quarter ending June 30th the industry capacity in domestic and international markets declines 65 per cent as compared to a year-ago period
In this scenario it will recover to a ten per cent decline in the fourth quarter.