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Published on : Friday, November 27, 2015
Seven of the ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa. The top ten will be: Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, Serbia, Tanzania, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and Vietnam. Each of these markets is expected to grow by 7-8% each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.
Trends in the 10 largest air passenger markets
China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2029. In 2034 China will account for some 1.19 billion passengers, 758 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%. Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.1% that will see 1.16 billion passengers by 2034 (523 million more than 2014). India will displace the United Kingdom as the third-largest market in 2026, with Indonesia rising to number 5 in the world. Japan, Spain, Germany and France fall relative to their competitors, Italy falls out of the top 10, while Brazil moves from 10th place to 7th.
Regional growth highlights
Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, for an overall market size of 2.9 billion. In relative terms it will increase its size compared to other regions to 42% of global passenger traffic, and its annual average growth rate, 4.9%, will be the joint-highest with the Middle East.
The North American region will grow by 3.3% annually and in 2034 will carry a total of 1.4 billion passengers, an additional 649 million passengers a year.
Europe will have the slowest growth rate, 2.7%, but will still cater for an additional 591 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.4 billion passengers.
Latin American markets will grow by 4.7%, serving a total of 605 million passengers, an additional 363 million passengers annually compared to today.
The Middle East will grow strongly (4.9%) and will see an extra 237 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2034. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 5.6%, 4.8%, and 4.6% respectively. The total market size will be 383 million passengers.
Africa will grow by 4.7%. By 2034 it will see an extra 177 million passengers a year for a total market of 294 million passengers.