Moderating Demand Trend Continues

Published on : Friday, July 8, 2016

passenger-releaseThe International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for May showing that demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, or RPKs) rose 4.6%, compared to the same month in 2015, which was the same level achieved in April. Capacity climbed 5.5%, which pushed the average load factor down 0.7 percentage points to 78.7%. Demand for domestic traffic rose 5.1%, outpacing international demand growth of 4.3%.
“After a very strong start to the year, demand growth is slipping back toward more historic levels. A combination of factors are likely behind this more moderated pace of demand growth. These include continuing terrorist activity and the fragile state of the global economy. Neither bode well for travel demand. And the shocks of Istanbul and the economic fallout of the Brexit vote make it difficult to see an early uptick,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
MAY 2016 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) WORLD SHARE1 RPK ASK PLF (%-PT)​2 PLF (LEVEL)​3
Total Market 100.0% 4.6% 5.5% ​-0.7% 78.7​%
Africa 2.2% 8.6% 9.4% ​-0.5% ​65.7%
Asia Pacific 31.5% 6.6% 6.9% ​-0.2% ​76.9%
Europe 26.7​% ​2.0% 2.8% ​-0.6% 80.2​%
Latin America 5.4% ​1.7% 1.3% ​0.3% ​79.4%
Middle East ​​9.4% 11.2% 15.4% ​-2.7% ​72.1%
North America 24.7% 3.0% ​3.4% ​-0.3% ​83.8%
(1)% of industry RPKs in 2015 (2)Year-on-year change in load factor (3)Load factor level

International Passenger Markets
Annual growth in international RPKs slowed for the third consecutive month, to 4.3%, from 5% recorded in April year-over-year. Airlines in all regions recorded growth. Total capacity climbed 6.1%, causing load factor to slip 1.3 percentage points to 77.1%
Asia-Pacific airlines’ traffic rose 5.1% in May compared to the year-ago period. Capacity increased 6.4%, which caused load factor to slide 1.0 percentage point to 75.1%. Strong upward momentum has stalled in recent months with growth tracking sideways since the beginning of the year
European carriers’ May demand climbed just 2.1% over May 2015, reflecting continuing fallout from the Brussels terror attack. Capacity rose 3.5% and load factor dipped 1.1 percentage points to 80.6%, which despite the decline still was the highest among regions
Middle East carriers had an 11.8% rise in demand in May compared to a year ago, which was the largest increase among regions. Capacity increased 15.6%, however, and load factor dropped 2.4 percentage points to 71.9%. Growth in capacity has now exceeded traffic growth in 18 of the past 20 months
North American airlines’ traffic climbed 0.5% as carriers continue to focus on the larger and stronger domestic markets. Capacity rose 1.9% and load factor fell 1.1 percentage points to 80.1%.
Latin American airlines experienced a 5.1% increase in traffic in May compared to the same month last year. As with Europe, upward momentum has stalled. Capacity climbed 5.2% and load factor was flat at 80.2%
African airlines’ traffic rose 9.5%, continuing the trend of strong growth that is linked to the expansion of long-haul networks by the region’s carriers, particularly Ethiopian Airlines. Capacity rose 10.4%, and load factor slipped 0.5 percentage points to 64.5%

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