“If policy remains unchanged, there will be a sharp decline in throughput after 2040”

Published on : Friday, November 15, 2013

port of RotterdamThe Port of Rotterdam Authority has had the Club of Rome models applied to the port of Rotterdam: what do the expected increase in the world population, scarcity of raw materials, agricultural land and fossil fuels, etc. mean for the development of the port in the period up to 2100? The study suggests that there will be a turning point around 2040 and that the later society switches to sustainable means of production and consumption patterns, the greater the decline will be after 2040. Throughput will perhaps even halve in the second half of the century.

 

 

The Port of Rotterdam Authority has a tradition when it comes to making long-term plans. They are usually ‘limited’ to a time horizon of 15 to 20 years, because that is a period over which you can make reasonable predictions using the customary macro-economic models. The Port Authority drew up the Port Vision 2030 a few years ago, for example, with 2030 as the time horizon. The Club of Rome is one of the few organisations that works with calculation models which bring together the most important predictable factors for economic and societal developments (such as population size, food production, the environment, availability of raw materials and energy) on a global scale for the very long term.

 

 

The Port Authority therefore asked the Club of Rome Climate Foundation to order IMSA Amsterdam to apply that model to the port of Rotterdam: what do the Club of Rome’s projections mean for the port of Rotterdam in terms of throughput and development in the period up to 2100? IMSA applied three different scenarios; one based on unchanged policy, one that relies on technological breakthroughs and one that combines technological progress with a change in behaviour on the part of the world population. This last scenario is the only one that does not predict a dramatic fall in throughput in Rotterdam.

 

Source:-Port of Rotterdam

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