Published on : Saturday, June 4, 2016
Computer simulations have consistently shown for at least a week the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea or eastern Gulf of Mexico over this weekend. This potential cyclone is likely to cross the Florida peninsula early next week resulting in very heavy rainfall.
If this system reaches tropical storm intensity it is expected to be named Colin, and would be the earliest third tropical storm on record in the Atlantic by about a week.
Global models generally show something coherent forming near the Yucatán Peninsula on Sunday, then moving north and turning to the Florida peninsula on Monday.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 10 percent chance of formation within the next two days, and a 60 percent chance of formation within the next five days.This example, from the GFS model ensemble, shows all 20 simulations forming a cyclone in roughly the same location and tracking over the Florida peninsula.
As with any tropical system, there is the potential for very high rainfall amounts and flooding. The National Weather Service’s morning forecast for the next five days shows almost all of Florida to receive at least two inches of rain, and central Florida more than five inches.
The ocean temperatures are very warm in the western Caribbean, and sufficiently warm in the eastern Gulf to sustain development, so the limiting factors for intensification will be proximity to land masses and vertical wind shear.
According to forecasts, the impact on Florida would most likely begin on Monday and carry on till Tuesday.
Tags: Tropical stor