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Brexit, travel trade discussed at WTM London, ‘basket case Britain’

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

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The major topic of discussion at World Travel Market –London was brexit, politics and travel trade.
David Goodger moderated a session called the ‘Brexit, Trade Wars and Populism’ and mentioned that there is one in three chance of a worldwide recession into 2020.
Although he did not see a recession absolutely on the cards as the Eurozone was soft and Germany is under performing.

 

European economy has seen a downturn and Germany is underperforming in terms of production and might turn out to be a real issue for the region.

 

According to Goodger the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson ‘s newly agreed Brexit deal is looking worse than the deal agreed by the predecessor.

 

May’s deal would have taken two per cent off GDP while the current deal would take off 3.1 per cent.

 

It is likely there will be a deal and travel will be impacted however the timing would be uncertain. The chances of a no deal is less certain and there was  a possibility of no Brexit at all.

If there is no-deal a much recession will be in place and aviation disruption is expected to be minimal with agreements in place.

 

Fellow presenter Natalie Weisz, senior manager, research and analysis at hotel data company STR mentioned that one in three worldwide travellers are delaying travel plans because of uncertainty over Brexit. The supply growth is putting pressure on rates , still the European occupancies are ten per cent ahead of the previous peak in 2007.

 

For up to five years Britain could be seen by European visitors as  a’basket case’ country’ after a potential initial Brexit agreement as per a laeding figure in the travel industry.

 

Tom Jenkins, executive director of the European Tour Operators Association mentioned that  the country is suffering from huge reputational damage thanks to Brexit that could last for years.

The initial withdrawal agreement has still not passed 3.5 years after the referendum and the final agreement could take two to three times longer.

 

An impression of a confused state has been created and they were looking at finally agreeing to leave in perhaps five or six years.

 

 

 

VisitBritain director of strategy and communications, Patricia Yates, revealed that a weaker pound was not resulting in more visitors to Britain but that the country’s reputation was a key driver.

 

 

They have been doing sentiment research every six months since the referendum.One can see logically that the pound has been weaker and that should encourage people to come to London , but people tell them that they are still an expensive destination

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