Destination-specific forecast reports released by PATA

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

The Pacific Asia Travel Association ( PATA) in response to the current COVID-19 pandemic after the success of Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2020-2024 has announced the second issue of a suite of 39 destination-specific reports for the period of 2020-2024 which is sponsored by Visa.

 There are regional forecasts concerning the changing dynamics of travel and tourism in and across the Asia Pacific region at the single level destination.

 There are additional data and insights from Euromonitor International.

Each of the 39 reports covers a specific destination in Asia Pacific and individual  forecasts have annual visitor arrivals into each destination, by source market, annual arrivals from the destination across other Asia Pacific destinations and aggregate visitor receipts, where data availability allows.

 The report estimates the income and price elasticity’s of tourism demand,highlights some key visitor trends over the forecast period and analyses scheduled inbound flights and seats.

 The demand preferences are shifting across the Asia Pacific region. Scheduled inbound international air seat capacity for example, shifts relatively quickly according to demand, so understanding where these shifts are occurring for the almost 1.2 billion inbound air seats scheduled for Asia Pacific destinations in 2019 (1), is a useful barometer of potential demand that can translate into increased arrivals.

The  capacity figures of many fleets are undergoing dramatic changes. They will most likely rebound slightly ahead of visitor numbers and should be monitored to see when and where such capacity begins to expand. It could be reasonably expected that intra-regional air capacity will be the first to show substantive growth during the early stages of recovery, so here the growth in capacity between regional origins and destinations, for both Legacy and Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs), will be a significant indicator to track.

Similarly, for the elasticities of both income and prices, where for example the sensitivity of a particular inbound market to price changes in a destination may hold strategic value in determining price-based programmes for that inbound market. Income sensitivity also shows how markets may react to changes in their own relative incomes and again provides a metric worth valuing in better understanding a potential source market. Such indicators will be extremely useful in understanding the competitive position of destinations as they pursue recovering source markets in the near future.

PATA CEO Dr. Mario Hardy said that they are a heavily data-driven world and it is a focus on hard data that will offer a significant advantage to those destinations that best identify and cater to those source markets that first begin to travel again once this current pandemic is brought under control.  He said that budgets are likely to be very tight in the near-term, so a strong alignment of activity directed toward those source markets with the strongest potential for conversion to travel, will be essential. Knowing those markets and when they are likely to rebound with travel will be critical in delivering cost-effective results. The income and price elasticities as shown for many source markets will be an important factor in this regard.

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