European airlines cutting back on China flights, British Airways, Qantas, Lufthansa in the list: Is this the new normal?

Published on November 9, 2024

By: Paramita Sarkar

European airlines are gradually reducing flight routes to China, signaling a potential “new normal” as they face geopolitical pressures, competitive disadvantages, and shifting market demand. Lufthansa, British Airways, Qantas and other airlines are on the list of airlines cutting back on their routes.

While intercontinental travel between Europe and Asia has rebounded strongly since the pandemic, routes to Greater China tell a different story, with several European carriers scaling back or suspending flights entirely.

This trend, highlighted by aviation analyst Rodrigue in a recent AeroTime article, underscores the competitive imbalance European airlines face compared to Chinese carriers.

While EU-based airlines must reroute to avoid Russian, Belarusian, and much of Ukrainian airspace, Chinese carriers benefit from access to Russian airspace, thanks to a “no limits” partnership between Russia and China.

This routing advantage results in reduced flight times, lower fuel consumption, and cost savings, giving Chinese airlines a substantial edge.

For instance, China Southern’s flight from Guangzhou to London takes nearly three hours less than British Airways’ comparable route, significantly affecting fuel expenses and profit margins.

According to Rodrigue, while these challenges have intensified since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the shift in Europe-China travel patterns is part of a larger trend.

Since the 2016 US-China trade tensions and Europe’s growing awareness of its economic dependence on China, the EU has been pursuing a “de-risking” strategy to diversify its trade partnerships.

This trend was further accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting European airlines to reduce China capacity and shift to other high-demand markets in Asia, including India, Vietnam, and Thailand.

Statistics reflect this transformation. In 2019, approximately 50 million visitors traveled to China globally; by 2024, only 17 million have visited.

With China’s economy facing its slowest growth in over four decades, demand for outbound travel has also fallen.

In contrast, Chinese carriers are pushing forward, opening 18 new routes to Europe, primarily from secondary cities.

Chinese airlines are utilizing heavy government subsidies to maintain competitive pricing, despite weak profitability in their home market.

European airlines are adjusting by reallocating resources to other destinations with stronger yields.

Mature markets like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan are seeing post-COVID demand rebounds, offering European carriers more viable alternatives.

The list of European airlines cutting back on routes to China is growing, with British Airways, Finnair, LOT Polish Airlines, Lufthansa, Qantas, SAS Scandinavian, and Virgin Atlantic reducing or suspending flights altogether.

In a bid to level the playing field, Air France has reportedly lobbied the French government to tax Chinese carriers, though no measures have been implemented.

Some European carriers, like Lufthansa, are leveraging partnerships with Chinese airlines, such as their joint venture with Air China, to serve customers without directly operating flights.

As the conflict in Ukraine and economic pressures continue, this retraction may well become a long-term trend.