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Germany: Incoming tourism will recover significantly in 2023

Sunday, January 1, 2023

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The international travel industry confirms that German incoming tourism will recover significantly in 2023. This is the core result of the most recent Travel Industry Expert Panel of the German National Tourist Board (GNTB).

Accordingly, the assessment of the current business situation rose from minus 40 to plus 25 (on a scale from minus 100 to plus 100) from the 1st to the 4th quarter. Business expectations for the next six months, which fell from plus 74 to plus 55 in the first half of the year after the start of the Ukraine war, have stabilized, but are still below the estimate at the beginning of the year due to the crisis.

German incoming tourism already recovered significantly in the 2022 summer season. The volume of overnight stays by foreign guests reached around 85 percent of the pre-crisis level in the third quarter. At the same time, the industry has to adapt to ongoing difficult economic conditions. From the GNTB’s point of view, attractive sustainable offers and further progress in the digital transformation are essential in order to consolidate the position of Germany as a travel destination in an increasingly fierce competition between destinations.

Petra Hedorfer, CEO of the Board of Directors of the GNTB, describes the current incoming situation: “The intention to travel is still high. This is confirmed by the latest study ‘Monitoring Sentiment in Intra European Travel’ by the European Travel Commission (ETC) from October 2022.

The analysts from Tourism Economics also confirm a high willingness to travel and forecast a further increase from 60 to 67 million international overnight stays in Germany in 2023 for incoming tourism 2023 rising prices for the travel offer in Germany due to inflation and higher energy costs. Nevertheless, more than a third of top managers state that moderate price increases would not affect customer demand for travel offers in Germany, 57 percent expect a slight decrease in demand due to price increases.”

Positive development of incomings in summer 2022

According to the Federal Statistical Office, the number of overnight stays by international visitors rose to 50.6 million from January to September 2022, which corresponds to 72 percent of the same period in 2019. In July, the incoming numbers reached 84 percent, in August 83 percent and in September 87 percent of the pre-crisis level. The top markets for incoming were the Netherlands, followed by Switzerland, the USA, Austria and Poland. The recovery developed positively, although the large source market of China is still regulated due to the strict zero-Covid policy; this also applies to the Russian source market due to the war.

Based on the current data, Tourism Economics forecasts a volume of around 60 million overnight stays by foreigners for Germany’s inbound 2022 – around two thirds of the previous record year 2019.

More sustainable travel on the upswing

The GNTB’s extensive marketing activities for more sustainable incoming tourism are having an effect: According to analyzes of mobile phone data by Teralytics on behalf of the GNTB, the proportion of arrivals to Germany by train (January to October 2022) rose from 10.6 percent, compared to the same period last year, to 14.4 percent. The length of stay in the flight segment increased from an average of 8.3 to 9.9 days in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2019, according to research studies of Forward Keys. The CO2 footprint per travel day thus decreased.

According to research by IPK International (IPK), sustainability, climate and environmental protection will be important, or very important, for 80 percent of international travelers in the future. In order to book more sustainable trips, around 40 percent of those surveyed expect a broader, more cost-effective range of offers and more specific information.

According to the IPK, more than half of those surveyed would also travel outside of the high season in the sense of a possible equalization of travel flows. 43 percent can imagine doing without comfort, for example when traveling to the destination, in order to be more sustainable. The interest in combining a city trip with a stay in rural regions if there is a corresponding offer is very pronounced at more than 90 percent among foreign travelers worldwide.

Good chances for travel destination Germany in the European competition

In the ranking of the most popular travel destinations for the next six months, Germany rose from sixth to fourth place after France, Spain and Italy in the ETC autumn survey.

According to the November forecasts, Deutsche Bank Research expects the global inflation rate to climb to 8.4 percent on average in 2022, more than doubling compared to the previous year. For 2023, too, economists expect inflation to remain high at a good six percent.

This also shapes consumer behavior: In its 13th survey wave from October 2022, the ETC study cited above analyzes the most important reasons that could currently prevent potential guests from traveling compared to the last survey in summer. The proportion of those who are prevented from traveling by Russia’s war against Ukraine has fallen by six to 8.9 percent. Nine percent fear being caught en route by the enforcement of quarantine rules (unchanged).

23 percent mention increasing travel costs due to inflation (plus five percent), 17.1 percent prevent the personal economic situation from traveling (plus four percent).

According to the GNTB Industry Expert Panel, three-quarters of the key accounts in the international travel industry assume that their customers still want to travel abroad, despite limited travel budgets.

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