Japan’s 2025 Year-End Travel Forecast Hits One Million As Wealthy Travelers Lead The Charge For Luxury Long-Haul Holidays To Europe And The US With Unchanged China Bookings

Published on December 9, 2025

Japan’s 2025 year-end travel forecast is set to reach an impressive one million travelers, driven by a significant surge in high-end tourism. Over thirty percent more Japanese citizens are expected to travel abroad compared to the previous year, with affluent tourists leading the charge for long-haul, luxury vacations to destinations like Europe and the United States. This growing demand for premium international travel highlights the post-pandemic recovery of Japan’s tourism sector. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, bookings to China remain stable, reflecting resilience in travel habits and a continued interest in key Chinese destinations like Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland.

As the year draws to a close, Japan is witnessing a notable resurgence in international travel. According to forecasts, over 1 million Japanese citizens are expected to travel abroad during the year-end and New Year holidays, marking a significant 32% increase from the previous year. This surge brings the figures closer to pre-pandemic levels, with the numbers reaching approximately 90% of the total seen before the global health crisis.

The uptick in travel demand is largely attributed to a growing number of affluent travelers. With rising asset values fueled by a booming stock market, many high-net-worth individuals are opting for luxurious, long-haul vacations to destinations in Europe and the United States. This trend represents a clear shift in travel habits, with a clear polarization between those seeking expensive, extended trips and others gravitating toward more budget-friendly, short-duration getaways to nearby locations.

Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Japan and China, travel to the mainland appears to remain steady. The Chinese government has issued an advisory urging caution for its citizens traveling to Japan, yet bookings to China routes remain relatively unaffected. Major airlines operating within the region, including Japan’s flagship carriers, have reported no significant drops in bookings for flights to China over the next few months.

Travel agencies offering package tours to popular Chinese destinations such as Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland are seeing a boom in bookings. Families in Japan are increasingly choosing these destinations, with some tour operators reporting a more than threefold increase in bookings to mainland China. This resilience in Japanese demand for travel to China suggests a continued interest in cultural exchanges and leisure travel, despite diplomatic tensions.

On the domestic front, travel within Japan is also seeing positive growth. An estimated 38.86 million trips are expected to be made within the country during the same holiday period, a modest 2% increase from last year. This highlights a steady demand for domestic tourism, especially as Japanese citizens continue to explore their own country during the festive season.

Although the Chinese outbound market, which typically represents about 20% of Japan’s international visitors, has seen a decline, this has yet to put significant downward pressure on hotel prices across the country. While the reduction in Chinese visitors has impacted certain sectors of Japan’s tourism industry, the domestic demand remains robust, keeping hotel occupancy and rates stable in major tourist areas.

Japan’s diverse tourism landscape continues to thrive, with both international and domestic travelers fueling the industry’s recovery. The year-end and New Year period has long been a key travel season, and 2025 promises to be no different. As wealthy travelers look to indulge in luxury holidays abroad and domestic tourism experiences see steady growth, Japan’s tourism sector is on track for a strong finish to the year, setting the stage for continued growth in the coming months.

Japan’s 2025 year-end travel forecast is set to reach one million, with wealthy travelers driving the surge in luxury long-haul trips to Europe and the US. Despite geopolitical tensions, bookings to China remain stable, reflecting resilient demand for both international and domestic travel.

With this shift towards more polarized travel habits, the focus for many in Japan will be balancing luxury and accessibility, catering to both high-end and budget-conscious tourists. As the nation’s travel patterns evolve, Japan remains a key player in the global tourism market, poised for further recovery as both international and domestic travel continue to rebound.