Japan’s Tourism Industry Faces A Crisis As Hong Kong Tourists Flee In Droves Amid Intensified Fears Of A Megaquake And Catastrophic Tsunamis Fueled By Misinformation

Published on April 29, 2025

Japan’s tourism faces a severe downturn as Hong Kong travelers flee amid growing fears of catastrophic earthquakes fueled by viral prophecies, triggering widespread panic.

The once-popular cherry blossom season in Japan, traditionally a major attraction for Hong Kong travelers, has lost much of its appeal, signaling a shift in the region’s tourism dynamics. This change is particularly noticeable during Japan’s Golden Week, a period of intense travel from late April to early May, which is quieter than usual this year. JTB Corp., Japan’s largest travel agency, has predicted a 6.9% decrease in both domestic and international travelers for 2024 compared to the previous year. Key factors cited for this decline include inflation and a growing aversion to crowds. However, beneath these practical concerns lies a far more significant shift: Hong Kong tourists, once the most loyal visitors to Japan, are fleeing in large numbers due to fears of a catastrophic summer earthquake, fueled by apocalyptic predictions.

The catalyst for this anxiety is Japan’s heightened focus on the Nankai Trough, a subduction zone stretching across 700 kilometers where the Philippine Sea Plate is slowly grinding beneath the Eurasian Plate. Seismologists predict an 80% chance of a major earthquake—ranging from magnitude 8 to 9—striking this region within the next three decades. This geological inevitability, based on long-term scientific analysis, was brought into the public spotlight in 2023 when the Japanese government revised the probability upward. However, this seemingly mundane update inadvertently triggered widespread panic, amplified by social media algorithms hungry for disaster-related content.

Adding fuel to the fire was Ryo Tatsuki, a manga artist who became infamous for her 2021 comic, The Future I Saw. The manga depicted a fictional scenario where a massive tsunami would strike Tokyo in July 2025. Despite being dismissed by experts as pure fiction, Tatsuki’s predictions garnered significant attention, partly because of her alleged earlier “accurate” foretelling of the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. By April 2025, her “prophecy” of a July 5th, 2025 tsunami had gone viral across platforms like TikTok and YouTube, becoming accepted as an almost “scientific certainty” by millions of people, particularly in Hong Kong.

This digital misinformation has had a profound effect on Hong Kong’s tourism habits. Local travel agencies report that bookings to Japan have dropped by half, with many travelers now opting for destinations like Dubai, Thailand, and Australia. Airlines, including Greater Bay Airlines, have responded by cutting flights to Japanese cities like Sendai and Fukuoka, with some routes, such as the one to Tokushima, operating on skeletal schedules. “Clients are unwilling to risk a holiday just to be buried under rubble for a sushi tour,” lamented Yuen Chun-ning of WWPKG Travel. Even the renowned Golden Week in Japan has been impacted. While domestic spending per traveler increased by 1.4%, overseas arrivals saw only a modest 10% uptick, with budget-conscious tourists instead choosing more affordable destinations like South Korea and Taiwan.

For Japan, the timing of this drop in tourism is particularly unfortunate. In 2024, tourism contributed ¥5.3 trillion to Japan’s GDP, and the country’s fragile post-pandemic recovery has been heavily reliant on international tourism. The weakening yen, which once made Japan a popular shopping destination for foreign tourists, now signals instability to crisis-averse Hongkongers, further exacerbating the situation.

Japan’s focus on disaster preparedness, while well-intentioned, has ironically caused severe damage to its tourism sector. Government projections of up to 298,000 deaths and ¥270 trillion in damages from a potential Nankai Trough earthquake were originally designed to justify infrastructure upgrades. However, they became fodder for clickbait and panic-mongering. Alarmist rhetoric, such as the warnings of 30-meter tsunamis engulfing Shizuoka and Osaka, fueled further panic, with many tourists interpreting these reports as confirmation of Tatsuki’s predictions. Even routine travel advisories, such as the Chinese Embassy’s warnings for citizens to “exercise caution” in Japan, were misinterpreted as a tacit endorsement of the looming disaster.

Adding to the confusion is Japan’s deep cultural entanglement with mysticism. Okinawan “seer” Kinjo Tamotsu, who falsely predicted a Tokyo Bay quake on April 26, has built a following despite a 98% failure rate in his predictions. His YouTube channel blends seismic data with zodiac-based predictions, reflecting a society where Shinto fatalism and scientific rationalism often coexist uneasily. Municipalities like Kuroshio and Kochi, which are earnest in their efforts to promote disaster preparedness, are now struggling to counter perceptions that their efforts are merely validating TikTok prophecies.

For middle-aged professionals in Hong Kong, Japan was once a symbol of stability—a peaceful, familiar escape from the pressures of city life. But the idea of Tokyo crumbling into a tsunami-ravaged city—an existential metaphor for their own loss of control—has proved intolerable. “It’s better to max out my credit cards in Dubai than risk dying in rubble in a foreign country,” one banker explained, echoing a common sentiment. For Gen Z travelers, less tied to Japan’s cultural allure, the shift has been more drastic. Many are now opting for K-pop pilgrimages to Seoul, with Japan losing its grip as a must-visit destination for this younger generation.

The economic impact of this shift is staggering. Hong Kong residents made up 2.68 million of Japan’s inbound tourists in 2023—about a third of Hong Kong’s total population—and spent a total of ¥380 billion. This significant revenue is now at risk, threatening regional economies from Hokkaido’s ski resorts to Okinawan beach hotels. Meanwhile, Dubai’s tourism board is reveling in a 65% surge in Hong Kong visitors, with Emirates adding more flights to accommodate the influx.

Yet Japan’s loss is not only financial. It has exposed a critical flaw in disaster management: risk communication. The government’s focus on worst-case scenarios has backfired, leading to widespread panic. “They wanted citizens to be prepared for evacuation, but instead, they taught tourists to evacuate Japan entirely,” said Professor Fukuwa Nobuo, who contributed to the Nankai Trough damage assessment.

Despite scientific consensus that earthquakes cannot be predicted, the damage has been done. Tatsuki’s manga and other viral content have perpetuated the fear, leading to a situation where logic and reason are overwhelmed by digital panic. NHK reported that over 1,400 YouTube videos on the July 5th myth have collectively garnered over 100 million views, while Chinese-language videos added an additional 52 million views.

While July 5th, 2025, may pass as another non-event like the Y2K scare, the lasting impact on Japan’s tourism reputation is undeniable. Japan’s role as a stable, reliable destination has been shaken, and its efforts to prepare for disaster have inadvertently fueled the very panic they sought to prevent. In today’s age of viral misinformation, governments must not only plan for disasters but also prevent the panic that accompanies them. As Tatsuki’s fans wait for Armageddon, Tokyo is learning the hard way: survival often depends not just on preparation, but on managing the fear that leads to mass flight.