Published on : Monday, May 24, 2021
Full vaccination rate is expected reach 10% in August 2021, and 30% in December.
As per the online publication – Our World in Data, 7.3% of the population of Korea has got their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. 2.5% have been vaccinated completely with two doses as of 19 May 2021. Korean people have received the AstraZeneca vaccine majorly. It’s a two-shot regimen with doses spaced out 11-12 weeks. Many variables will likely impact the pace of vaccinations, but we suppose by August, the people fully vaccinated with both doses (AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, etc.) will reach about 10% of the population and around 30% by December 2021.
Faster supply of vaccines namely Pfizer and Moderna which have a shorter (one month or less) interval times between the two doses, would allow Korea’s full vaccination rate to reach 30% earlier than above-mentioned forecasts. Before, we had projected the full vaccination rate to reach the 30% mark in 1Q22. However, now we hope the process to get accelerated. Revised projections were used to calculate approximately the number of outbound travelers that are fully vaccinated and excused from 14-day self-quarantine restrictions.
Priority was given to the elderly in the initial phase of vaccination, along with outbound business travelers, healthcare workers and other critical sectors. Due to this, we couldn’t see a direct boost in travel demand at the start of vaccinations. However, we suppose outbound traffic to increase from September in a visible manner, once roughly 10% of the population (or 5.5mn people) receive both doses. The number of outbound travelers should continue on a MoM uptrend (73K in March→80K in April →85K in May →89K in June →92K in July →93K in August →132K in September →187K in October→274K in November →357K in December) going forward.