Thailand Struggles with Tourist Arrivals in 2025 as Foreign Numbers Decline – Koh Samui and Bangkok Lead the Way Amidst Recovery Efforts, Here’s What You Need to Know About the Impact on Popular Destinations

Published on December 9, 2025

Thailand’s tourism sector is grappling with ongoing challenges as foreign arrivals continue to fall short of expectations, despite some positive signs of recovery. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported a 13.3% month-on-month increase in foreign arrivals for November 2025, bringing in 2.91 million tourists. However, the year-on-year decline of 7.5% highlights a worrying trend that has persisted for nine consecutive months. This ongoing downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including global economic uncertainties, extreme weather conditions, and fluctuating regional travel patterns.

For Thailand, the peak tourist season typically starts in December, but the impact of these challenges looms large. As international tourism begins to pick up, particularly from India, Germany, and Russia, there are concerns about whether Thailand can meet the forecasts set by industry bodies. These forecasts predicted around 33 million foreign arrivals for 2025. However, given the current trajectory, it’s unlikely that this target will be met, further compounding the challenges the country faces.

Decline in Foreign Arrivals: A Continuing Trend

The most recent data reveals a troubling decline in Thailand’s foreign tourist numbers. From January to November 2025, Thailand recorded a 7.3% drop, with only 29.6 million tourists arriving. Despite an uptick in November, the figure remains below expectations. Key countries contributing to the fall include China, which has traditionally been the largest source of tourists, seeing a 33.8% drop. South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia also posted declines, although there were some positive exceptions with India, where arrivals grew by 16.4%.

While these declines have been somewhat mitigated by events like the Blackpink World Tour and other significant concerts, they have not been enough to offset the overall slump in visitor numbers. Moreover, the lack of international holidays in November, in contrast to major events like China’s Golden Week and various regional festivals, made it more difficult for Thailand to capture substantial tourist traffic during the month.

Challenges to Thailand’s Tourism Forecasts for 2025

Industry bodies such as the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) had projected foreign arrivals to reach about 33 to 33.4 million in 2025. However, several factors are now putting this estimate at risk. Severe flooding in the southern parts of the country, as well as escalating tensions with Cambodia, have further dampened the outlook for the year. If the negative trends continue, the final count of foreign tourists in 2025 is likely to fall short of the previous year’s total of 35.54 million.

Forecasts for 2026 remain slightly more optimistic, with TAT and BoT projecting a recovery toward 35 million foreign arrivals. This potential rebound is expected to be driven by improving relations with China, which might restore tourist flows, and continuing growth from Europe and the US.

Bangkok Airways: Leading the Aviation Sector Amidst Challenges

While the broader tourism and transportation sectors remain under pressure, Bangkok Airways (BA) has emerged as a standout performer. Despite the neutral stance held by Phillip Securities (Thailand) on the sector overall, the airline’s consistent performance has set it apart. The airline has benefitted from its dominance on the Koh Samui route and increasing passenger numbers from Europe. As Bangkok Airways continues to lead in this crucial segment, analysts expect the company to deliver a dividend payout of Bt1.03 for FY2025, with two tranches scheduled for release.

Tourism Outlook: Risks and Opportunities

Thailand’s tourism sector is clearly facing significant challenges in 2025, but there are still opportunities for growth. The Indian market, which saw a rise in tourist arrivals, may continue to be a stronghold, providing a much-needed boost to Thailand’s recovery. Additionally, tourism from Europe and the US has remained resilient, despite the decline from China.

However, the country’s recovery will depend on its ability to address regional competition from other Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam and Japan, which have been gaining traction with international tourists. Thailand’s currency strength, particularly the baht, may also hinder the country’s competitiveness compared to these neighboring nations.

What Should Travelers Do?

For travelers looking to visit Thailand in the coming months, the following tips can enhance their experience:

• Monitor travel advisories: Ensure that your destination is not affected by the severe flooding in southern Thailand.
• Consider alternative destinations: If Bangkok and Chiang Mai are crowded, smaller towns or the coastal regions might provide a more relaxing experience.
• Book accommodations early: With tourist arrivals expected to rise toward the end of the year, securing a spot in popular hotels is advisable.

Despite the ongoing challenges, Thailand remains an iconic destination for travelers seeking culture, adventure, and relaxation. With careful planning and flexibility, travelers can still enjoy the country’s offerings, even as the tourism industry faces uncertainty.

The Road Ahead for Thailand’s Tourism Sector

As we look towards 2026, the future of Thailand’s tourism looks cautiously optimistic, despite the challenges it currently faces. The combined efforts of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, the Bank of Thailand, and the private sector will be crucial in steering the country’s tourism sector toward a recovery. However, it is clear that Thailand’s tourism industry needs to adapt to global economic conditions and respond to the increasing competition from regional destinations.

With a few significant hurdles still ahead, it remains to be seen whether Thailand will regain its footing as the region’s leading travel hub or continue to face slowdowns in the years to come.