New York Aligns with Philadelphia and Others as US and Canada Cross Border Travel Shows Uneven Recovery

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New York and Philadelphia expect more Canadian visitors, but US and Canada cross-border travel recovery remains uneven. Forecasts for Canadian visitation in New York in 2026 are at 3.1%, and in Philadelphia at 4.1%. In the meantime, Statistics Canada says that Canadian movement back to the US increased 10.1% in July 2026, but was still 25.6% lower than in July 2024. They show a bifurcated recovery for travellers looking to take American city breaks, road trips and cross-border holidays, and offer insights into the reasons why they can enjoy improved demand and availability but not better fares or package discounts.

Cross-Border Travel Is Growing From a Lower Base

Statistics Canada’s July report, published on 22 September, shows improving annual demand:

These figures describe July travel, despite their September publication.

The remaining two-year shortfall provides essential perspective. Canadian returns from the US reached only 74.4% of their July 2024 level. A positive annual comparison therefore signals improvement from a weaker base, rather than a completed recovery.

New York and Philadelphia Expect Canadian Visitor Growth

New York City Tourism + Conventions projected 820,000 Canadian visitors for 2026 in its July outlook, representing growth of 3.1%. Canada remained the city’s second-largest international visitor market.

Philadelphia’s April outlook projected Canadian visitation to increase 4.1%. Its separate annual report recorded 411,900 Canadian visitors in 2025, down approximately 23%.

Both destinations expect renewed demand. However, these forecasts were issued at different times and do not establish a ranking of cities achieving the fastest recovery.

New York also offered a Canadian-focused promotion across more than 85 businesses. Its 18 August–7 September discount period has ended; travellers should check individual providers for current offers.

Las Vegas and Orlando Show the Distance Still to Travel

Large Canadian visitor markets entered 2026 following substantial losses. Las Vegas received an estimated 1,196,300 Canadian visitors in 2025, down 17.4% from 2024. Canadians nevertheless accounted for 25.3% of its international visitors.

Orlando recorded 1,119,300 Canadian visitors, a decline of 13.3%, even while overall visitation reached a record 76.7 million.

That difference is commercially important. A destination can perform strongly overall while one major source market struggles. Its hotels, attractions and airlines may experience different outcomes depending on their customers.

These annual figures establish the starting point for recovery. They cannot confirm a Canadian visitor rebound in either city during 2026.

August Border Figures Extend the Summer Improvement

August’s preliminary indicator recorded 2,574,637 Canadian return trips from the US by air and automobile, up 8.8% annually. US-resident arrivals using those modes reached 2,433,730, an increase of 2.4%.

The earlier gap persisted. Canadian automobile returns remained 27.4% below August 2024, while air returns were 22.7% lower.

August’s provisional series has narrower coverage than July’s comprehensive release. It excludes cruise arrivals, and Statistics Canada cautions that additional NEXUS Highway records affect comparisons.

The two monthly totals should therefore be read within their respective series. Comparing them directly would confuse changes in coverage with changes in travel demand.

Canadian Road Trips Outpace the Air Travel Recovery

Canadian automobile returns from the US reached 2.2 million in July, increasing 12.6%. Air returns rose just 0.6% to 567,000.

Trip length adds another distinction: 59.8% of those automobile returns followed same-day visits. This suggests that some recovery may benefit shops, restaurants and attractions without generating hotel stays.

Separate screening data reinforce aviation’s uneven position. US-bound passengers screened at Canada’s eight largest airports totalled approximately 1.5 million in July, down 0.9% annually.

Airport screenings cover a different population and direction of movement from returning Canadian residents, so the measures should remain separate.

Cruise Arrivals Bring a Different Kind of Tourism Growth

US-resident cruise arrivals in Canada increased 28.8% in July to approximately 367,800. This creates a different tourism opportunity from the recovery in Canadian road trips.

The geography helps explain why. British Columbia accounted for 81.1% of Canada’s cruise arrivals in 2025, with Victoria recording 959,100 and Vancouver 533,300.

Statistics Canada counts cruise passengers at their first Canadian port of call. Its figures should not be treated as the combined passenger traffic at every stop.

Cruise passengers can support excursions, dining and attractions around ports. However, arrival growth alone cannot establish hotel demand or spending gains.

Overnight Visits Make a Bigger Spending Difference

First-quarter 2026 surveys reveal contrasting economic outcomes. Canadian residents spent C$5.0 billion during US visits, down 13.6% annually. US residents spent C$3.0 billion in Canada, up 16.5%.

Canadian travellers spent an average C$206 per same-day US visit, compared with C$1,344 per overnight visit. These are survey averages, rather than suggested holiday budgets.

The implication is clear: recovering visitor numbers do not automatically restore visitor revenue. Length of stay and the balance between day trips and overnight holidays influence spending.

These figures cover January–March. They provide context for summer recovery, but do not measure July expenditure.

Hawaii and California Add Useful Regional Perspective

Hawaii welcomed 19,782 Canadian visitors in July 2026, up 2.7% annually. Yet its January–July Canadian total remained 6.7% lower than a year earlier.

California’s May outlook forecast Canadian visitation to rise 2.6% in 2026 after falling 20.1% in 2025.

Both examples show why the measurement period matters. One improving month can sit within a weaker year, while a forecast describes an expected outcome.

Geography matters equally. Hawaii’s statewide increase cannot be assigned to Honolulu, and California’s forecast does not establish separate recovery rates for Los Angeles, San Francisco or San Diego.

Travel Costs Need Their Own Reality Check

Canadian price indices show why stronger demand does not guarantee affordable holidays. August air transportation prices fell 3.3% from July but remained 15.0% above August 2025. Traveller accommodation prices increased 5.1% month on month.

These broad Canadian measures do not quote prices for specific cross-border flights or US hotels. Travellers need to compare the full itinerary, including baggage, transfers, parking and cancellation terms.

Route choice also matters. The Gordie Howe International Bridge opened in July, adding a Windsor–Detroit crossing with a port operating around the clock. Drivers should compare live conditions and approach-road traffic before selecting their route.

Put the Figures to Work When Planning a Trip

A useful cross-border travel plan combines market context with checks that apply to the actual journey:

• Compare complete trip costs for the same dates and booking conditions.
• Check live border waits, allowing separately for approach-road congestion.
• Confirm current entry-document requirements through official border authorities.
• Treat visitor forecasts as planning estimates, not proof of availability or discounts.

New York and Philadelphia illustrate cautious expectations of renewed Canadian demand. Other destinations show how uneven that process remains. For families and independent travellers, the strongest booking decision rests on the chosen route, destination and total cost, supported by a clear understanding of what each statistic measures.

In conclusion, New York aligns with Philadelphia and others in forecasting renewed Canadian visitor growth, as travel between the US and Canada shows an uneven recovery. Road trips and cruise arrivals are increasing, but Canadian returns from the US remain below July 2024 levels. That gap explains why improving demand does not establish a full tourism rebound. Travellers who cross the border should compare routes, accommodation and total costs, because higher visitor numbers alone do not guarantee cheaper flights or better hotel deals.