AAA Predicts 119 Million US Holidaymakers to Travel Over Year-End Holidays, with Record Air and Road Travel and Rising Demand for Car Rentals and Cruises in 2025

Published on December 11, 2024

By: Tuhin Sarkar

AAA forecasts a historic year for holiday travel, with an estimated 119.3 million Americans journeying at least 50 miles from home between December 21, 2025, and January 1, 2026. This marks a record-breaking increase of 3 million travelers over the previous year and narrowly surpasses the 2019 record by 64,000. The surge in holiday travel this year is driven by the growing demand for road trips, air travel, and cruise bookings as families and friends come together to create lifelong memories.

According to AAA’s Vice President of Travel, Stacey Barber, the holiday season is a significant time for family bonding, and the anticipation of record travel numbers this year underscores the central role that travel plays in these moments. “This is the time of year when lifelong memories are made with loved ones, and travel plays a big role in that,” Barber noted. With Christmas Day falling on a Wednesday in 2025, AAA expects even greater travel volumes before and after the holiday itself, particularly during the weekends of December 21 and December 28.

Road Travel: Nearly 90% of Holiday Travelers Opt to Drive

By far the most popular mode of transportation this holiday season will be car travel. AAA predicts that nearly 90% of holiday travelers—approximately 107 million people—will hit the road this season, making it the dominant method of travel. This number is up 2.5 million travelers compared to 2024, although it falls just short of the 2019 record of 108 million.

The enduring popularity of road trips can be attributed to their flexibility, affordability, and the convenience they offer, particularly for families with young children. With gas prices lower than last year, the appeal of road trips is heightened. In 2024, the national average gas price hovered around $3.12 per gallon, making long-distance travel more economical.

As gas prices drop, more travelers are choosing to drive instead of flying, particularly since gas demand traditionally decreases in December. Cold weather, remote work schedules, and the shift to online shopping all contribute to less fuel consumption and reduced congestion at gas stations. Families planning road trips will benefit from these favorable economic conditions, making it an ideal time for travel.

For travelers looking to rent a car, AAA’s rental car partner Hertz has identified the cities with the highest demand for rental vehicles. According to Hertz, the busiest pick-up days are expected to be Friday, December 20, and Saturday, December 21. Popular destinations for car rentals this season include Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, Phoenix, and Tampa. These cities are expected to see a significant increase in rental activity as travelers flock to popular holiday destinations. The average rental length for this season is approximately one week.

Air Travel: Record-Breaking Numbers Expected

In addition to a boom in road trips, air travel is also expected to see a significant increase. AAA predicts a new record for air travel with an estimated 7.85 million passengers flying during the year-end holiday period. This surpasses last year’s record of 7.5 million air travelers by 350,000, further demonstrating the strength of consumer demand for air travel during the holiday season.

While more people are expected to fly this year, airfares have risen slightly compared to 2024. AAA’s booking data shows a 4% increase in domestic airfare prices, with the average cost of a domestic flight this year pegged at $830. International flights are also seeing higher costs, with a 13% increase compared to last year, bringing the average ticket price to $1,630.

Despite higher ticket prices, the surge in air travel is a testament to the enduring popularity of flying as a way to reach family gatherings and vacation destinations quickly. The ability to cross long distances in a matter of hours, along with the greater number of direct flight options, continues to make air travel a preferred choice for many holiday travelers.

Other Modes of Travel: A 10% Increase in Bus, Train, and Cruise Travel

While the majority of holiday travelers will rely on cars and planes to reach their destinations, other modes of travel are also seeing notable increases. AAA estimates that 4.47 million Americans will travel by bus, train, or cruise this holiday season, marking a 10% increase compared to last year. This is the highest number in 20 years and underscores the growing popularity of alternative travel options.

Cruise travel, in particular, is gaining traction during the holiday season. Many families are opting for holiday-themed cruises that offer a festive atmosphere and activities for all ages. Domestic cruise bookings are up 37% compared to the previous year, highlighting the increased demand for this type of vacation. With cruises offering everything from themed parties to elaborate holiday meals and entertainment, families are increasingly choosing this immersive travel experience as a way to celebrate the season.

Holiday Travel Safety Tips

With millions of people expected to travel during the year-end holidays, AAA is urging travelers to prioritize safety on the roads. For those driving, AAA offers several important tips to ensure a smooth and safe journey:

1. Follow Posted Speed Limits: It may be tempting to speed in an attempt to save time, but even slight increases in speed can make crashes far more dangerous. Speeding may feel faster, but it significantly increases the risk of accidents.
2. Drive Only When Alert and Refreshed: Driving when tired is as dangerous as driving under the influence of alcohol. Lack of sleep impairs reaction times and decision-making. AAA advises drivers to get sufficient rest and take breaks every two hours or 100 miles.
3. Slow Down, Move Over: To protect roadside workers, including emergency responders and construction crews, drivers are encouraged to slow down when they see flashing lights and, if safe, change lanes to give them extra room to work.

With millions of cars on the road and high traffic volumes expected around major metro areas, travel will likely be slower than usual. For example, INRIX, a transportation data provider, predicts the worst traffic delays will occur on the weekends leading up to Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. During these peak travel times, drivers in cities like Boston, New York City, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., could experience delays twice as long as usual. Nationally, travel times could increase by up to 30%, especially during the late afternoon and evening.

Best and Worst Times to Drive

To avoid congestion, AAA recommends that travelers plan their trips around the busiest travel times. According to INRIX, Sunday, December 22, is expected to be the worst day for travel, so drivers are advised to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours. If possible, travelers should consider leaving early in the morning or after the evening commute to minimize time spent stuck in traffic.

Conclusion

This year’s holiday travel season promises to be one of the busiest on record, with 119 million Americans expected to travel over the year-end period. Whether by car, air, or other modes, travelers are expected to flock to popular destinations to spend time with loved ones and celebrate the season. For those hitting the roads, AAA’s safety tips will help ensure that everyone arrives safely and enjoys their holiday experience.

As families and friends gather together, this year’s holiday travel forecast reflects the enduring significance of travel in creating unforgettable memories. Whether by road, sky, or sea, 2025 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year for the American travel industry.

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