China Positioned to Drive Unprecedented Global Air Traffic Growth, With Passenger Volumes Set to More Than Double by 2040, Fueling Asia’s Aviation Dominance in the Coming Decades

Published on August 13, 2025

By: Rana Pratap

China’s air travel industry is on the cusp of a transformative period, with its passenger volumes expected to more than double by 2040, a dramatic surge that will reshape the global aviation landscape. This explosive growth is driven by China’s rapid post-pandemic recovery, a booming middle class, and increasing demand for both domestic and international flights. As the country continues to expand its infrastructure and modernize airports, it is poised to become the dominant force in global air travel, with its growth propelling broader economic and technological advancements across Asia. This shift will redefine the region’s aviation sector, setting the stage for an era of unprecedented growth and international connectivity.

Global Air Traffic Outlook: Predictions for 2025 and Beyond

Bain & Company has unveiled its updated air traffic forecast, presenting a comprehensive view of the aviation industry as we approach the end of the second quarter of 2025. This outlook highlights trends, key growth drivers, and future expectations for air travel, shedding light on the industry’s potential trajectory in the coming years.

Post-Pandemic Recovery Reaches New Heights in 2025

The aviation sector has made significant strides in recovering from the pandemic, with air travel demand rebounding to pre-COVID levels in 2024. According to Bain’s latest findings, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)—a key metric that measures the total distance traveled by paying passengers—nearly reached 103% of the volume seen in 2019. As we head into 2025, the forecast predicts that global air traffic will surpass 2019 levels, hitting a new peak at 108% of 2019’s figures.

This marks a remarkable recovery for the airline industry, one that was severely impacted by the global health crisis. The surge in travel demand comes as economies reopen, vaccination campaigns continue, and consumer confidence rises, paving the way for an even more robust air travel landscape in the near future.

A Slower Growth Decade Ahead

While air traffic has rebounded with surprising speed, Bain’s report acknowledges that the 2020s will likely be the slowest-growing decade in aviation history. The pandemic has left an indelible mark on the industry, with the overall growth rate for this decade lagging behind previous years. Travel restrictions, economic slowdowns, and shifting consumer preferences have all contributed to a more tempered growth rate.

Looking ahead to the 2030s and 2040s, Bain notes that while the recovery will continue, the pace of growth will likely be slower than the boom years experienced prior to 2020. However, the long-term prospects for the aviation industry remain fundamentally strong, driven by growing demand in both emerging markets and established regions.

A Bright Future for Global Air Traffic by 2040

Despite the slower growth in the short term, the long-term outlook for air travel remains optimistic. Bain forecasts that by 2040, global RPK will soar to 14.8 trillion, which is an impressive 178% of 2019 levels. This substantial increase is expected to be driven by both the expanding middle class in emerging markets and the ongoing demand for air travel in mature markets.

A key takeaway from the forecast is the robust fundamentals supporting air traffic demand. These fundamentals include factors such as rising disposable incomes, technological advancements in aircraft efficiency, and the continued globalization of commerce. Even amid challenges such as geopolitical tensions, the industry is expected to remain resilient and adaptable, with strong growth anticipated in the coming decades.

Regional Dynamics and Asia’s Dominance

One of the most significant trends identified in Bain’s forecast is the continued dominance of Asia in global air traffic growth. Intra-regional passenger volumes within Asia are projected to surge by 131% between 2019 and 2040, solidifying the region’s central role in driving global demand.

China, in particular, stands out as a key player in the future growth of air travel. The nation’s post-pandemic recovery momentum is expected to remain strong, with air traffic volumes in China set to more than double by 2040 compared to 2019 levels. This rapid growth positions China as one of the fastest-growing air travel markets globally, alongside other emerging economies in Asia.

The region’s expanding middle class, increasing urbanization, and growing demand for both domestic and international flights all contribute to the soaring air traffic in Asia. Furthermore, with numerous aviation hubs being developed across the continent, air travel within Asia is becoming more accessible and efficient, further driving demand.

Macroeconomic Factors and Sustainability Considerations

While Bain’s forecast anticipates some economic headwinds in the near term—largely stemming from increasing tariff pressures and global trade uncertainties—these factors are expected to have a minimal impact on overall air traffic growth. The report highlights that sustainability considerations, particularly the easing of carbon cost pressures and delays in certain climate-related taxes, are likely to play a crucial role in supporting demand.

As global efforts to tackle climate change continue to evolve, the aviation industry is also adapting. The shift towards more sustainable air travel options, such as the adoption of fuel-efficient technologies and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), is expected to reduce the financial burden of carbon costs. These developments could ultimately support the growth of price-sensitive segments of the market, enabling air travel to remain accessible to a wider audience.

China’s air travel is set to skyrocket, with passenger volumes more than doubling by 2040, driven by a robust post-pandemic recovery, booming demand, and expanding infrastructure. This growth will solidify China as the global leader in aviation, reshaping Asia’s travel dynamics for decades to come.

Conclusion: Navigating the Future of Air Travel

In conclusion, Bain & Company’s updated air traffic forecast underscores the resilience and potential of the aviation industry, despite the ongoing challenges of the post-pandemic world. While growth may slow in the short term, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by strong fundamentals and a dynamic global market. As we move closer to 2040, Asia’s prominence in global air traffic will continue to grow, with China at the forefront of this transformation. The aviation industry’s adaptability, coupled with advancements in sustainability, will ensure that air travel remains a vital part of the global economy for years to come.