FCM consulting predicts a 3.5% increase in air travel seats with fewer flights in first half of 2024

Thursday, February 15, 2024

FCM Consulting’s Q4-2023 Quarterly Global Trends Report, referencing Cirium data, forecasts that combined corporate and leisure travel will exceed the annual travel volumes of 2018 and 2019. This report reveals an ongoing trend into 2024 of more available seats on fewer flights. Specifically, the first half of 2024 is expected to see a rise of 97.9 million seats (a 3.5% increase) alongside a decrease in flights by 2.1 million (a 5.6% drop) compared to the first half of 2019.

“This is a result of fleet configuration changes and shifts in schedules to meet the demand. When carefully planned, this will be favourable to airline operating costs, staffing, airport slots and airport costs,” said Sunny Sodhi, Managing Director of FCM Travel India.

Comparison of H1 2024 vs H1 2019:

Seats and Flights Growth by Region

• Africa: Seats increased by 11%, Flights by 6%.
• Middle East: Seats grew by 7%, Flights by 4%.
• North America: 7% rise in Seats, but a 7% decline in Flights.
• LATAM (Latin America and the Caribbean): Seats up by 6%, Flights decreased by 1%.
• Asia: A modest growth of 3% in Seats and 1% in Flights.
• Australasia: No change in Seats, Flights reduced by 2%.
• Europe: Seats decreased by 1%, Flights saw an 8% drop.

“Q4-2023 closed a milestone year, seeing corporate travel the busiest and least interrupted in over four years. Business travellers have become more confident than in previous years and are planning trips in 2024 to both grow their business and connect with clients and colleagues. Across the top global corporate airlines, we forecast that the seats offered in 2024 will be two per cent above 2019 and the number of flights offered will be down six per cent,” Sodhi said.

“American Airlines, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, LATAM Airlines Group, Qatar Airways, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and Virgin Atlantic Airways are all forecast to be back over 100 per cent in terms of seats offered when compared to five years ago,” concluded Sodhi.

Economy class fares from Mumbai to London experienced a 25% surge, with a similar 24% increase observed for Mumbai to Delhi routes. Business class tickets from Mumbai to London saw a 13% hike.

The most frequented domestic routes by business travelers in India include Chennai to Delhi, Delhi to Bangalore, Delhi to Mumbai, Mumbai to Bangalore, and Mumbai to Delhi.

“Delhi commands the highest average room rate of USD$249, followed by Bangalore at USD 192 then Mumbai at USD$157. Chennai’s average room rate is USD$130 but it witnessed the highest increase of 35 per cent versus Q3-2023,” added Sodhi.

Hotel room rates in 2023 rose across all regions compared to 2022, with Asia reporting the highest global increase of USD 39. Occupancy rates also climbed in all regions year-over-year. Mainland China, reopening its borders last, witnessed a 34% jump in occupancy rates to 65%. Occupancy in Asia, excluding China, rose by 17%, and India saw a modest increase of 1.8%, reaching a 70% occupancy rate in 2023.

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