Global Passenger Growth Slows to Over Two Per Cent in June 2025 Amid Regional Variations in Air Traffic Demand: What IATA Reports You Need To Know

Published on August 1, 2025

By: Paramita Sarkar

Global passenger growth slowed to 2.6% in June 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), marking a notable deceleration compared to previous months.

Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), showed a more modest increase compared to the substantial growth observed earlier in the year.

The global aviation market has faced challenges, with disruptions in regions like the Middle East, affecting demand patterns. As of June, total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), rose by 3.4% year-on-year, but growth in demand was outpaced by this increase in capacity, leading to a slight drop in load factors.

The June 2025 data also revealed that total global load factors decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 84.5% compared to the same month in 2024. This decline came as capacity expansion outstripped demand growth, particularly in key international markets. Despite this, the global load factor remains strong, with airlines operating at historically high levels of efficiency.

In the international passenger market, demand rose by 3.2% in June 2025, though capacity increased by 4.2%, causing load factors to dip to 84.4%. The Middle East was the only region that experienced a contraction in international demand, with a 0.2% decrease compared to June 2024.

This was primarily attributed to military conflicts that disrupted traffic, especially on routes to North America and Europe, where demand dropped by 7.0% and 4.4%, respectively.

Across different regions, the variation in growth rates highlights the diverse performance of global air travel. Airlines in Asia-Pacific showed a significant increase in demand, with a 5.0% rise in RPKs. This was accompanied by a 4.7% increase in capacity, leading to a stable load factor of 83.0%.

European airlines followed closely, seeing a 2.2% rise in demand and a 2.6% increase in capacity, with a load factor of 87.8%, one of the highest globally.

However, North American airlines experienced a slight drop in demand, down by 0.1%, despite a 2.1% rise in capacity. The region’s load factor stood at 86.4%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year.

Latin American carriers, however, demonstrated the strongest growth, with a notable 7.9% increase in passenger demand year-on-year. This growth was driven by an 11.8% capacity expansion, though load factors fell by 1.3 percentage points to 82.9%. This robust growth highlights the recovery and strength of the Latin American aviation market in contrast to other regions.

African airlines, in contrast, saw only a modest 0.8% increase in demand, while capacity expanded by 1.5%. Despite the rise in capacity, the region’s load factor decreased to 74.6%, a fall of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year. Increased competition from European and Middle Eastern carriers could be one factor contributing to the slowdown in African air traffic demand.

The domestic air travel market also experienced varied growth. Domestic demand rose by 1.6% globally, with domestic capacity increasing by 2.1%. This slight increase in demand coupled with a higher growth in capacity led to a modest decline in global domestic load factors, which fell by 0.4 percentage points to 84.7%.

The domestic markets in countries like Brazil, China, and India saw notable performance. Brazil posted the highest increase in demand, rising by 14.7%, driven by a 17% capacity expansion. The US domestic market showed a slight expansion, marking a return to growth after several months of stagnation.

India and China also showed strong domestic demand increases, with 5.4% and 3.8% growth, respectively, although Japan’s domestic market saw a slight dip of 0.3% in demand.

International travel, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and European regions, continued to recover strongly, but Middle Eastern carriers saw the most significant challenges due to regional geopolitical instability. Despite these challenges, the broader global air travel market remains resilient, with strong underlying growth.

The steady capacity expansions, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, reflect the broader trend of increasing international connectivity.

Looking ahead, June 2025’s data suggests that the global aviation market faces a complex mix of regional dynamics. While demand remains strong in regions such as Asia-Pacific and Latin America, disruptions in the Middle East and North America continue to impact overall market performance. As the summer season approaches, global air travel demand is expected to stabilize, with minimal shifts in capacity growth projections.

The latest data from IATA indicates that global air traffic demand continues to reflect the economic and geopolitical factors that influence the aviation industry. While challenges persist in certain regions, overall global growth remains positive.

Airlines are focusing on optimizing their operations to maintain high load factors, making use of capacity in an environment of shifting demand.

As countries recover from economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the global passenger market is expected to continue its steady recovery. With airlines focusing on regional markets and diversifying their services, the global aviation sector is poised to benefit from robust demand in emerging markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

As regions like North America and Europe face slower growth, the broader trend suggests that the global aviation market remains on a path to stability and resilience in the long term.