Hawaii Facing Summer Tourism Challenges Amid Global Economic Uncertainty: What You Need To Know About Airline Travel Outlook?

Published on May 23, 2025

By: Paramita Sarkar

The outlook for airline travel to Hawaii is weakening. This is happening as the summer tourism season approaches and it is raising concerns among tourism experts about the ability of visitor arrivals to offset declining demand from U.S. markets.

Despite some recovery in international travel, softer demand from major source markets and economic uncertainties have cast a shadow over Hawaii’s vital tourism industry, which otherwise strongly relies on air travel.

Hawaii’s Tourism and Air Travel Landscape Amid Uncertainty

Tourism is the backbone of Hawaii’s economy, with more than 9.5 million visitors arriving by air in 2024, according to the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT). Air travel accounts for approximately 93% of total visitor arrivals, making the airline seat capacity a crucial indicator for the state’s economic health.

Recent data from the Hawai‘i Visitors and Convention Bureau (HVCB) shows a mixed picture for air travel capacity into Hawaii in 2025.

While there was a slight increase in total airline seats from the U.S. mainland during April and May, projections for the peak summer months of June, July, and August show declines of 7% to 8% compared to the same period in 2024.

This downturn is worrying tourism stakeholders, who fear it may reduce visitor arrivals during the most critical travel months.

Shifts in U.S. and International Airline Seats

Jeffrey Eslinger, senior director of market insights for HVCB, explained that although U.S. trans-Pacific airline seats were projected to rise by 1% in April and 4% in May compared to last year, the expected decline starting in June signals a softening of leisure travel demand.

International airline seat capacity initially showed growth, with April seats up 17%, led by Hawaiian Airlines. However, sharp declines of 10% in May and 13% in June indicate an inconsistent recovery from key international markets.

Eslinger anticipates a stabilization of international seat capacity by July and August, with modest gains. Yet, the earlier seat reductions will likely impact international arrivals during the crucial summer travel window, particularly on Oahu and in the Waikiki area, which depend heavily on foreign visitors.

Impact on Local Tourism and Community Perspectives

The fluctuations in airline seats and visitor arrivals have mixed implications for Hawaii’s residents. Some locals, concerned about the negative effects of overtourism prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, may welcome a slowdown.

However, for Hawaii’s economy—which relies heavily on tourism-driven revenue and jobs—reduced visitor numbers pose a significant challenge.

Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai‘i Hotel Alliance, highlighted the concerning trend of inconsistent hotel bookings, especially for the June 15 to August 15 period, a critical time for the industry. He noted declines in booking pace ranging from 35% to 40% in various parts of the state. This weakening demand undermines the financial stability of hospitality businesses and creates uncertainty for employees and service providers.

Gibson also pointed to consumers’ tendency to book closer to travel dates, a pattern that typically signals hesitation among travelers amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Additional factors include ongoing impacts from recent disasters, such as the wildfires in California, which have disrupted travel patterns from important feeder markets.

Challenges in International Visitor Recovery

Hawaii’s tourism recovery depends not only on U.S. mainland travelers but also on the return of international visitors.

However, several international markets have not rebounded as expected. Japan, traditionally one of Hawaii’s largest overseas source markets, has not recovered fully for summer travel. Visitor numbers from Canada and Oceania have also decreased, creating a broader shortfall in international arrivals.

These challenges underscore the vulnerability of Hawaii’s tourism sector to global economic shifts and external shocks, reinforcing the importance of diversified market strategies and targeted marketing efforts.

Economic and Educational Influences on Travel Demand

The changing dynamics of school calendars across the United States further complicate Hawaii’s summer tourism prospects. Jeffrey Eslinger noted that with many U.S. schools now resuming as early as the first week of August, the traditional summer travel season is effectively shortened to mostly July and a few weeks in June or August.

This compressed travel window intensifies competition among destinations and reduces the overall length of the peak season for Hawaii.

Competition and Marketing Concerns

Industry leaders attribute part of the current softening to inconsistent marketing efforts. Hawaii faces increasing competition from other destinations, particularly Mexico, which has recently introduced incentives such as partial refunds of value-added taxes for visitors on tourist visas. These perks enhance Mexico’s attractiveness to U.S. travelers seeking affordable vacation options.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV & Associates Hospitality Consulting, emphasized the critical role of the Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA) in destination marketing.

Vieira criticized recent shortcomings in coordinated marketing campaigns, stressing the need for robust, long-term promotional strategies rather than short-term tactics. The industry funds marketing, but they don’t have the destination marketing necessary to drive summer demand. If they miss this window, it’s difficult to build momentum for the rest of the year, Vieira said.

Maui Recovery Campaign and Industry Efforts

To address these concerns, the Hawai‘i Visitors and Convention Bureau is preparing a recovery marketing campaign focused on Maui, which suffered significant damage from wildfires in August 2023. Governor Josh Green allocated $6.3 million in reserve funds to support this effort, with hopes to launch the campaign by the end of May 2025.

Jerry Gibson expressed cautious optimism about the campaign’s potential impact, noting that it could help stimulate travel interest in Maui and assist the broader recovery of Hawaii’s tourism industry.

Airline Industry Response and Workforce Developments

Southwest Airlines and other carriers continue to adjust their operations in response to fluctuating demand. Southwest’s chief operating officer Andrew Watterson explained that airline capacity to Hawaii is fluid, with aircraft deployments moving in and out depending on demand levels.

Demand is down from 2022 levels but remains well above 2018.

As travel recovers, we will add more planes back, Watterson said. Southwest’s seat capacity stabilized since April, despite small reductions in interisland flights and shifts from daytime to red-eye flights.

Southwest employs nearly 700 workers in Hawaii and continues hiring to manage normal turnover, though overall staffing remains below peak levels due to reduced flying demand.

Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines Merger Effects

The merger of Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines has created the fifth-largest U.S. carrier, holding over 40% of the Hawaii-U.S. mainland seat share. Despite uncertainties, the combined airline projects a slight increase of 1.45% in seat capacity for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Hawaiian Airlines plans a significant hiring drive for 2025, recruiting 500 flight attendants along with pilots, mechanics, and airport operations staff in Hawaii. A key focus is recruiting flight attendants fluent in Korean and Japanese to support expanded international routes.

Recent route additions include daily nonstop Seattle-Narita service, with Seattle-Incheon service scheduled to begin in September 2025.

Outlook: The Need for Swift Industry Action

Industry experts agree that quick and coordinated efforts are essential to mitigate the summer downturn and strengthen Hawaii’s tourism momentum for the rest of the year.

Chris Kam, president and COO of Omnitrak, noted that despite falling consumer confidence, leisure travel remains a priority for many, though economic uncertainty is causing uneven booking patterns.

Keith Vieira stressed the importance of timely destination marketing. Failure to address declining demand risks further reductions in airline capacity, which would compound challenges for Hawaii’s travel-dependent economy.

Conclusion

Hawaii’s summer tourism outlook remains cautious amid global economic headwinds, inconsistent international market recovery, and evolving consumer behavior. The state’s heavy reliance on air travel makes airline seat capacity a critical metric closely watched by policymakers, industry stakeholders, and local communities.

By leveraging government support, targeted marketing campaigns, and industry collaboration, Hawaii aims to navigate these challenges and sustain its position as a premier island destination.

The success of these efforts will be pivotal in ensuring a stable tourism economy that supports residents and businesses across the islands.