IATA Statistics: Air Freight Demand Soars by 18.4% in January, Marking Strong Start to 2024

Tuesday, March 5, 2024

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) unveiled January 2024 statistics for worldwide air freight markets, showcasing an optimistic kickoff for the year.

• The overall demand, quantified in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), saw an 18.4% rise from January 2023 (with a 19.8% increase for international operations). This surge represents the most substantial yearly growth in CTKs since the summer of 2021.
• The capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), experienced a 14.6% elevation from January 2023 (with an 18.2% rise for international operations), primarily due to an increase in belly capacity. International belly capacity experienced a 25.8% year-over-year growth, bolstered by robust passenger markets.

“Air cargo demand was up 18.4% year-on-year in January. This is a strong start to the year. In particular, the booming e-commerce sector is continuing to help air cargo demand to trend above growth in both trade and production since the last quarter of 2023. The counterweight to this good news is uncertainty over how China’s economic slowdown will unfold. This will be on the minds of air cargo executives meeting in Hong Kong next week for the IATA World Cargo Symposium with an agenda focused on digitalization, efficiency and sustainability,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

The acceleration of air cargo outstripped trade and production growth. Key environmental factors to note include:

• A 1.0% uptick in global cross-border trade in December over the previous month, despite a -0.2% year-on-year decrease.

The manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in January climbed to 50.3, breaching the 50 mark for the first time in eight months and indicating expansion. Nonetheless, the new export orders PMI improved to 48.8, still below the critical 50 threshold, pointing to a continued but slowing downturn in global exports.

• Major economies witnessed a gradual reduction in inflation from its peak, as evidenced by January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures—3.1% in the US and the EU, and 2.1% in Japan. Conversely, China’s CPI revealed a fourth consecutive month of deflation, intensifying concerns over an economic slowdown with a -0.8% inflation rate, the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
• Detailed Analysis of the Air Cargo Market for January 2024
• In January 2024, the air cargo sector showcased varied performance across different regions, reflected in several key metrics including Cargo Tonne Kilometers (CTK), Available Cargo Tonne Kilometers (ACTK), changes in Cargo Load Factor (CLF) both in percentage points and level. The global market held steady, with the total market representing 100% share, displaying an 18.4% increase in CTK and a 14.6% rise in ACTK year-on-year, leading to a modest improvement in CLF by 1.4 percentage points to a level of 45.7%.
• Regionally, the market dynamics differed:
• Africa experienced a growth in CTK by 17.0%, although ACTK rose more significantly by 19.4%, resulting in a slight decrease in CLF by 0.9 percentage points to 43.1%.
• Asia Pacific, holding a substantial 33.3% share of the world market, witnessed a notable 24.6% increase in CTK and a 25.0% increase in ACTK, with a minimal CLF decline of 0.2 percentage points to 44.6%.
• Europe saw a 16.4% rise in CTK against a slower 12.5% increase in ACTK, enhancing the CLF by 1.9 percentage points to an impressive 55.5% level, indicating efficient capacity utilization.
• Latin America, with a 2.8% market share, reported a 13.4% increase in CTK and a modest 6.6% rise in ACTK, which significantly improved the CLF by 2.1 percentage points to 34.4%.
• Middle East regions observed a strong 25.9% increase in CTK and a 17.1% rise in ACTK, leading to a considerable boost in CLF by 3.1 percentage points to 43.9%.
• North America showcased a lower growth in CTK at 9.3%, with a much smaller increase in ACTK of 3.8%, resulting in a 2.2 percentage point increase in CLF to 43.5%.
• This detailed breakdown reveals the diverse and dynamic nature of the global air cargo market in January 2024, with each region displaying unique trends in cargo volume and capacity utilization.

January Regional Performance Review

In January 2024, airlines in the Asia-Pacific region witnessed a remarkable 24.6% rise in air cargo volumes compared to January 2023, outperforming the previous month’s growth of 18.5%. This upswing was fueled by significant growth in international CTKs across three key trade lanes: Africa-Asia (up 52.5%), Middle East-Asia (up 29.5%), and Europe-Asia (up 27.5%). The availability of airline capacity in the region also expanded by 25.0% from January 2023, thanks to increased belly capacity from passenger operations.

Conversely, North American airlines reported the lowest regional growth in January, with a 9.3% year-over-year increase in cargo volumes, albeit an improvement from December’s 2.0% increase. Growth was driven by the North America-Asia (up 17.1%) and North America-Europe (up 3.5%) trade lanes. Capacity in this region rose by 3.8% compared to January 2023.

European airlines experienced a 16.4% increase in air cargo volumes in January 2024 versus January 2023, marking a significant improvement over December’s 8.6% increase. This growth was powered by robust international CTK expansion in intra-Europe markets (up 18.4%) and on the Europe-Asia route (up 27.5%), with additional gains from the substantial growth in the Middle East-Europe trade lane (up 46.1%). Capacity in the region grew by 12.5% in January 2024 compared to the same month in the previous year.

Middle Eastern airlines led the performance chart in January 2024 with a notable 25.9% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes, a considerable leap from December’s 18.3% increase. This growth was primarily due to increases in the Middle East–Asia (up 29.5%) and Middle East–Europe (up 46.1%) markets. Capacity for these carriers was up by 17.1% compared to January 2023.

Latin American airlines saw a 13.4% increase in cargo volumes over January 2023, a marked improvement from December’s 6.4% gain. January’s capacity was 6.6% higher than in the same month the previous year.

African airlines enjoyed a 17.0% boost in air cargo volumes in January 2024, a significant recovery from December’s -1.2% performance. The growth was largely attributed to the Africa-Asia trade lane, with capacity for the month standing 19.4% higher than in January 2023.

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