Inbound US Tourism Expected to Drop in 2025, Marked by Fewer Visitors from Canada, Economic Concerns, and a Dwindling Travel Spend in Las Vegas: Here’s What You Should Know

Published on October 4, 2025

Inbound travel to the United States is projected to decline for the first time since 2020, as the U.S. Travel Association reports a 6.3% dip in international visits. This decline in 2025 follows a previous projection that predicted an uptick in travel, marking a major shift in the post-pandemic recovery phase. International visitors, particularly from Canada, are expected to decrease, contributing to the overall reduction. This is a stark contrast to the earlier forecast that predicted a rise in international travel and spending, reaching pre-pandemic levels by 2026. With the potential recovery now forecast for 2029, the tourism sector faces new challenges as it seeks to regain momentum.

Tourism Declines in the US: A Shift in Recovery Post-Pandemic

According to the latest U.S. Travel Association report, inbound international visits to the U.S. are forecast to drop to 67.9 million in 2025, which is approximately 85% of the travel levels seen in 2019. Initially, projections had pointed toward a steady recovery following the pandemic, with the expectation that international visitation would surpass 2019 figures by 2026. However, this decline has dampened the travel industry’s outlook, especially given the earlier anticipation of an 8.8% growth to 78.8 million international visits.

While the decrease is attributed mainly to fewer travelers from Canada, the report highlights a broader slowdown in growth from other key international markets. Experts warn that economic uncertainty, changes in visa policies, and a prevailing negative sentiment towards the U.S. have all contributed to the downturn. With this development, it is now expected that full recovery will not take place until 2029, when international visits are predicted to reach 81.9 million.

Spending Declines Alongside Reduced Visitors

In addition to the drop in visitor numbers, the financial impact of this trend is also significant. U.S. travel spending is projected to see a slight increase of just 1.1% in 2025, totaling $1.35 trillion. While this is still growth, it is markedly slower compared to previous years, reflecting the overall weakening of international tourism.

More concerning, however, is the decline in spending by international visitors, which is expected to fall by 3.2% to $173 billion. This reduction in visitor expenditure comes at a time when many economies are recovering from the pandemic, placing the U.S. in a unique position among major travel destinations. According to a report from the World Travel & Tourism Council, the U.S. stands as the only major economy expected to experience a decline in international visitor spending for 2025.

What Factors Are Contributing to the Decline in Inbound U.S. Travel?

Several factors are influencing the decline in inbound travel to the U.S. Political tensions, especially those related to past trade tariffs and visa regulations, have led to growing frustrations among international travelers. A study from Longwoods International reveals that around 20% of Canadian travelers have canceled or avoided their plans to visit the U.S. in light of ongoing policy shifts and safety concerns. This comes after previous rhetoric by the U.S. government that may have alienated key international partners.

Visa Issues and Safety Concerns

Among the top concerns cited by international travelers are the rising visa fees, longer processing times, and overall difficulties obtaining travel documents. Travelers from major source countries, including China, India, and Europe, have expressed frustration with the bureaucratic hurdles they face in securing U.S. visas. Moreover, safety concerns, whether tied to perceived political instability or issues like gun violence, continue to contribute to negative perceptions of traveling to the U.S.

Focus on Canada’s Decreasing Visits

Canada, historically the U.S.’s largest international market, has seen the most significant decline in visitor numbers. Efforts to reverse the trend have been made by both state and city governments. California’s Visit California and other regional tourism bodies have launched public campaigns aimed at restoring goodwill and encouraging Canadians to visit. Nevertheless, the damage seems to have been done, with cities like Las Vegas seeing a 19% drop in Canadian visitors year-to-date, reflecting the broader regional impact of these changes.

Looking Ahead: Will Major Events Revitalize U.S. Tourism?

Despite the current downturn, optimism remains for the future. One major hope lies in events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is expected to drive a surge in inbound tourism. This major international event, set to be hosted by the U.S. alongside Canada and Mexico, is expected to attract millions of visitors and could serve as a catalyst for the long-awaited recovery of international travel to the U.S. However, the event’s impact on the tourism sector may be tempered by external economic factors and growing competition from other global travel destinations.

What Should Travelers Know?

For travelers considering a visit to the U.S. in the coming years, it is essential to stay updated on visa application timelines and entry requirements, as the U.S. is currently grappling with longer processing times. Additionally, keeping an eye on economic conditions in both the U.S. and their home countries is advisable to understand the potential cost of international travel. Travelers may also want to explore alternative destinations within North America that offer similar experiences, such as Mexico, Canada, or even Caribbean destinations, which continue to show strong growth in the tourism sector.

As the U.S. aims for a recovery in the following years, tourists will need to carefully assess whether the destination meets their personal travel needs, given the current constraints.

Future Outlook

The overall outlook for inbound travel to the U.S. remains uncertain. While the recovery is expected to begin in earnest with major events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the U.S. tourism industry will need to overcome several hurdles, including economic instability, visa restrictions, and shifting public perceptions of the country. With the right changes and proactive strategies, the U.S. could see a bounce-back in international travel within the next few years, especially if it can capitalize on large-scale global events and improve its relationships with key tourism markets.