International Air Transport Association and Partners Compare Aviation Net Zero Roadmaps

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

The Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review was jointly released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London (UCL), the The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), and the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) are three prominent organizations in the field.

This groundbreaking publication is the first of its kind, comparing 14 prominent net zero CO2 transition plans for the aviation sector. Its purpose is to serve as a comprehensive resource for airlines, policymakers, and all stakeholders in aviation, facilitating a deeper understanding of the similarities and differences among these roadmaps. The ultimate goal is achieving net zero carbon emissions in aviation by 2050. The report meticulously evaluates the selected roadmaps based on their scope, foundational assumptions, projected aviation energy demand, CO2 emissions forecasts, and the potential emissions reductions attributed to different mitigation strategies such as new aircraft technologies, zero-carbon fuels, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), and operational enhancements.

Key insights from the analysis include:

1. The pathways to achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 vary significantly, contingent upon the foundational assumptions made by the authors regarding the evolution of decarbonization technologies and solutions. These assumptions dictate the relative importance of specific mitigation strategies in the decarbonization efforts of aviation.
2. All roadmaps anticipate that Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) will contribute the most to CO2 reductions by 2050, albeit with a wide range of estimates from 24% to 70%, with a median of 53%. This variability reflects uncertainties related to governmental support, investment levels, production costs, profitability, and feedstock accessibility.
3. Technological advancements and operational efficiencies are expected to play a substantial role in the net zero transition across all roadmaps, collectively accounting for approximately 30% of emissions reductions by 2050 in all scenarios.
4. Projections regarding emissions savings from hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft vary significantly among the roadmaps, influenced by factors such as the adoption of pro-hydrogen policies and the rapid decline in renewable energy prices enabling faster adoption of electric-based technologies.
5. Nearly all global roadmaps indicate that the aviation sector will require assistance from market-based measures and carbon removal techniques to address residual emissions in 2050. Even though carbon removal technologies are often considered “out-of-sector” mitigation measures, their development is deemed urgent and critical, particularly for producing power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels that rely on CO2 as feedstock.

“The Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review demonstrates that there are multiple levers that can be used in different combinations to achieve the objective of decarbonizing aviation by 2050.  All these levers will be needed in aviation’s transition. While the impact of each varies across the roadmaps, all roadmaps expect the greatest decarbonization in 2050 to stem from SAF. This report provides airlines, policymakers and all stakeholders with a useful tool to analyze and improve their policy, investment, and business choices.  It is particularly important for SAF where strong and urgent public policy support is needed to increase production. Without that, no version of the roadmaps will get us to net zero carbon emissions by 2050,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

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