Japan Sets to Join Brazil, Germany Mexico and Canada as Tourists from These Countries Could Vanish from US Under New Trump Administration Plan Requiring Five Years of Social Media History Declaration for First-Time Entrants

Published on December 11, 2025

At the end of 2025 the U.S. government signaled that foreign tourists may soon face unprecedented digital scrutiny. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) published a notice proposing to make social‑media disclosure mandatory on the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) for first‑time entrants. Under this plan, citizens of Visa Waiver Program (VWP) countries such as Germany and Japan must list social‑media handles from the past five years[1]. The same disclosure would also apply to the I‑94 arrival/departure records that non‑VWP visitors and many Canadian and Mexican travellers complete[1].

CBP also wants telephone numbers, email addresses, IP addresses, family details and biometrics[2]. These additions implement Executive Order 14161’s directive to restore rigorous vetting and review VWP participation[3][4].

Changes to the Visa Waiver Program

DHS has already altered how it manages the VWP. A 2024 rule removed the list of participating countries from federal regulations and directed travellers to the DHS Visa Waiver Program website[5]. The rule notes that the Secretary of Homeland Security may designate, suspend or terminate participation and that publishing the list online allows quicker updates. Romania’s recent removal from the program shows how fluid membership can be[6]. As of late 2025, forty‑one countries participate; Germany and Japan remain eligible, while Brazil, Mexico and Canada are not, meaning their visitors must use visas or I‑94 forms.

Germany and Japan: Major Markets Under Watch

Germany and Japan are major overseas markets. National Travel and Tourism Office data show that Germany sent 1.995 million visitors and Japan 1.844 million in 2024[7]. The new proposal would require first‑time German and Japanese visitors to supply five years of social‑media identifiers plus personal data such as phone numbers and family contacts[8]. The goal is to cross‑check digital footprints against watchlists, but this may conflict with these countries’ strong privacy norms. Combined with the order’s call to reassess VWP participation[4], travellers might fear tighter screening or future suspension.

Brazil: A Popular Market Without Waiver Protection

Brazil is not in the VWP yet ranks near the top of overseas visitor counts. The NTTO survey records 1.910 million Brazilian visitors in 2024[7]. Brazilians seeking short‑term tourism apply for B‑1/B‑2 visas using the DS‑160 form, which already asks for social‑media identifiers. CBP’s notice proposes to revise the I‑94 and require first‑time entrants to submit five‑year social‑media histories[1]. Travellers would also have to provide contact information, IP addresses and biometrics[2]. For a market that already faces long visa wait times, these new hurdles could encourage would‑be tourists to look elsewhere.

Canada and Mexico: High‑Volume Neighbours

Canada and Mexico have special travel arrangements but many visitors still file I‑94 forms. CBP estimates that about 865,000 travellers will complete paper I‑94s each year and another 2.28 million will use the electronic version[9]. Those forms would incorporate the five‑year social‑media disclosure and the expanded personal data fields. In 2024 Canada sent 9.7 million air visitors[10], who stayed about seven nights and spent roughly $1,090 per trip[11]. Mexico sent 3.5 million air visitors[12], with longer stays and average spending around $1,379[12]. Additional vetting could deter spur‑of‑the‑moment cross‑border travel and reduce tourism revenue.

Why It Matters for the U.S. Economy

Taken together, these five nations form a massive slice of the U.S. inbound travel market. Germany (1.995 million), Japan (1.844 million), Brazil (1.910 million), Canada (9.7 million) and Mexico (3.5 million) accounted for nearly 19 million visitors in 2024[7][10][12]. These visitors stay one to two weeks and spend roughly $1,100–$1,400 per trip[11][12]. Beyond airfare and hotel bills, they shop, dine, visit attractions and support countless jobs across the United States. For small towns near the Canadian border or major hubs that cater to Japanese and German tourists, even a modest drop in arrivals could hurt tax revenues and local employment. Tourism is one of the few export industries that brings foreign cash directly into local businesses; policies that make the United States feel less welcoming thus have ripple effects far beyond the immigration desk.

Broader Implications and Next Steps

Executive Order 14161 frames the expansion of digital screening as a national‑security necessity, and CBP’s notice carries that mandate into practice[2]. Supporters argue that social‑media footprints can reveal ties to extremists or criminals. Critics counter that demanding five years of online history is intrusive and could chill free expression, especially when travellers must name family members and provide detailed contact information. Because Germany, Brazil, Japan, Mexico and Canada collectively account for tens of millions of visitors and billions of dollars in spending, even a modest decline could echo through airlines, hotels and attractions.

Public comments on the proposal are open until February 2026[13], and the outcome may depend on political leadership after the 2024 election. The State Department has already expanded social‑media vetting for certain student and exchange visas and instructed applicants to make their profiles public. If the broader rule is adopted, first‑time travellers from Japan, Brazil, Germany, Mexico and Canada will face a stark choice: share five years of digital history or rethink their trip. The coming months will reveal whether policymakers can balance security with economic and diplomatic interests and whether millions of potential visitors are willing to accept unprecedented online surveillance.

Travel associations and privacy advocates warn that this requirement could deter law‑abiding tourists and reduce visits to the U.S.