Macau’s Casino Industry Gears Up For A Record-Breaking Chinese New Year

Published on January 30, 2025

Macau’s gaming sector is bracing for a major influx of tourists as the Chinese New Year holiday commences on January 29, with surging hotel reservations and supportive government policies fueling travel from mainland China.

Spanning until February 4, the festive period represents a crucial revenue window for the casino hub, as operators anticipate a dynamic start to the Year of the Snake.

According to Seeking Alpha, at least 21 high-end hotels in Macau have reached full occupancy for a minimum of four nights during the holiday, with room rates hitting the upper spectrum of pricing expectations—an indicator of robust demand.

The post-holiday period historically sees strong stock performances from Macau’s casino operators, driven by a surge in visitor numbers. Analysts are closely monitoring whether this year’s turnout meets or surpasses market forecasts.

Adding to the travel momentum, China’s expanded Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) now grants multiple-entry access to residents of Zhuhai and Hengqin, potentially increasing daily visitor traffic from these cities by 20,000.

The Chinese New Year is regarded as the largest annual human migration, with RTHK News estimating that 510 million rail travelers and 90 million air passengers will be on the move across China.

Macau’s tourism authorities are optimistic, with the Macao Government Tourism Office predicting daily visitor arrivals could hit 185,000 during the celebrations, reinforcing positive sentiment for the city’s gaming sector.

Despite the anticipated short-term boost, opinions on Macau’s full-year gaming revenue outlook remain divided among financial analysts:

• Macquarie analysts argue that a projected 6% growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025 is an underestimation, citing government stimulus measures and aggressive tourism promotions.
• Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research suggests a potential 7% GGR increase, provided China’s economic conditions strengthen.
• Nicholas Chen from CreditSights takes a more cautious stance, predicting 4.7% growth due to concerns over weak consumer sentiment impacting discretionary spending.
• JP Morgan analysts foresee a 5% GGR rise in 2025, with a 4% uptick in the first half of the year and a stronger 7% in the latter half.
• The Macau government remains the most bullish, projecting MOP 240 billion in GGR for 2025—a notable 11% jump from 2024.

As one of the most significant tourism peaks of the year unfolds, Macau’s gaming giants are positioning themselves to capitalize on the surge in visitors, aiming for a strong financial start to the lunar new year.