Montana Joins with New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, Nevada Experiencing a Rapid Downfall in Tourist Arrivals from Canada, as Trump Tariff Trade War Hits the Tourism Industry, What You Need to Know

Published on April 30, 2025

By: Tuhin Sarkar

Montana joins New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada in facing a severe tourism crisis, as the Trump tariff trade war spirals into a full-blown economic setback. Montana joins this downward spiral, aligning with New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada—each state now grappling with a sharp downfall in tourist arrivals from Canada. With the Trump tariff trade war escalating by the day, Montana joins the unfortunate list of states where the tourism industry is seeing a downfall. The downfall in tourist arrivals is particularly brutal from Canada, a key international market. Montana joins New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada, where the once-bustling influx of Canadian tourists has dramatically declined.

The Trump tariff trade war has unleashed a retaliatory wave of anti-U.S. sentiment, and Montana joins its coastal and southern counterparts in bearing the brunt. From California’s luxury resorts to Florida’s beaches, from Texas rodeos to Arizona’s canyons, and from Washington’s nature trails to New York’s iconic cityscapes—every state facing a downfall feels the ripple effects. Montana joins the fray with its own plummeting numbers. The downfall isn’t just statistical; it’s emotional, economic, and political.

Montana joins the list of New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada—a chorus of states crying foul as Canadian tourism fades. As the Trump tariff trade war deepens, the downfall in tourist arrivals has turned into a warning sign for the entire tourism industry. Here’s what you need to know as Montana joins the crisis.

Montana’s tourism industry—particularly in the beloved Flathead Valley—is facing its sharpest downturn in Canadian visitation since the pandemic, as the political fallout from President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariffs and inflammatory rhetoric begins to bite. In what is shaping up to be a critical year for the state’s international tourism sector, border crossings, hotel bookings, and visitor spending from Canada are in freefall, reversing a slow post-pandemic rebound and igniting concern among tourism leaders.

For decades, Alberta and northwest Montana have shared deep tourism ties. Canadians made up 14% of all Montana visitors before COVID-19, spending freely on lodging, groceries, and retail while treating the Flathead Valley as a home away from home. But after Trump reignited trade tensions with Canada in early 2025—slapping new tariffs on imports and suggesting Canada should become America’s “51st state”—those ties are unraveling.

A Sudden and Severe Drop

In January, Canadian spending in Kalispell dropped 13% compared to the previous year. In February, the decline accelerated to 36%, according to the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce. This economic contraction comes despite a hopeful start to the year, where 2023-to-2024 numbers had shown a 10.8% increase in Canadian travel spending.

Similarly, border traffic at Roosville, the nearest port of entry north of Eureka, plummeted. While January saw an 11% year-on-year increase in passenger vehicles, February saw a 14.8% drop, followed by a steep 26% decline in March. Tourism officials now warn of a broader collapse unless diplomatic and economic tensions cool.

Hotel Bookings Nosedive

Across Montana, hotel bookings from Canadian travelers are down 71%, according to Medler of Discover Kalispell. Even more alarming, Canadian youth sports teams have begun canceling their Flathead Valley tournament reservations, disrupting one of the area’s reliable sources of off-season travel.

“The political climate is directly influencing personal travel decisions,” Medler said. “People are not just canceling leisure trips—they’re canceling entire group bookings. That impacts hotels, restaurants, event venues, and local retailers.”

While domestic tourism may buffer some of the economic blow, Canadian visitors often spend more per capita, particularly on high-value items during favorable exchange rate periods. Their absence hits harder than raw numbers suggest.

A Community and Cultural Loss

More than just dollars and cents are at stake. Medler emphasized the emotional and cultural connections that have long defined the Alberta–Montana relationship.

“Montana and Alberta share the world’s first international peace park,” she noted, referencing the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, established in 1932. “Canadians don’t feel like they’re from a different country. They feel like neighbors. What’s happening now is deeply disheartening.”

The Flathead Valley, home to Glacier National Park, has historically seen Canadian travelers booking extended stays, purchasing second homes, and driving repeat visitation across seasons. With those relationships fraying, tourism leaders worry about long-term erosion of regional loyalty.

Ripple Effects Across Montana

It’s not just Flathead Valley feeling the pressure. Racene Friede, CEO of Western Montana’s Glacier Country, reported that inquiries from international travelers to their call center and website have dropped 29% year-over-year. That includes not only Canadians but European travelers as well, many of whom monitor U.S. political developments before booking.

Friede added that conference cancellations by federal employees—a result of federal budget tightening—are also affecting hotels and event venues, further straining Montana’s hospitality sector.

“We’re in a year of unknowns,” Friede said. “We’re cautiously optimistic about domestic travel, but the international outlook is volatile.”

Kalispell Airport Holding Steady—For Now

Despite the downturn in Canadian visitation, Kalispell’s Glacier Park International Airport (GPIA) is still reporting 13% passenger growth from January to March, according to airport director Rob Ratkowski. He credits this uptick to Flathead Valley’s growing local population and sustained interest from domestic tourists, particularly from western U.S. cities.

However, Ratkowski warns that a flat summer travel season is expected. Airlines are not adjusting capacity yet, but prolonged weakness in international demand may lead to fewer seasonal routes or reduced service in future years.

National Impact Looms

The impact of declining Canadian visitation isn’t limited to Montana. The U.S. Travel Association estimates that a 10% dip in Canadian visitors could cost the U.S. economy $2.1 billion in spending and lead to 14,000 job losses. In 2024, Canada remained the largest source of international visitors to the U.S., generating $20.5 billion in travel-related spending and supporting over 140,000 jobs.

With many border towns and rural destinations like Montana heavily reliant on cross-border tourism, even modest reductions in Canadian travel can ripple through local economies.

Can the Damage Be Reversed?

While tourism officials remain hopeful that domestic travel demand can buoy 2025 revenues, there’s growing consensus that geopolitical diplomacy will play a key role in reversing current declines.

“We need the rhetoric to cool,” Medler said. “We need signals from both governments that cross-border friendship and economic partnership still matter. Without that, no amount of marketing will bring back the trust that has been lost.”

Already, regional tourism boards are discussing joint campaigns with Alberta tourism partners to rebuild interest through storytelling, cultural exchanges, and media engagement. But leaders stress that policy consistency and mutual respect at the federal level are prerequisites for any lasting recovery.

Conclusion: A Warning Sign for Border Economies

The fallout from Trump’s revived trade war with Canada is proving far more than symbolic for Montana’s tourism industry. With hotel bookings plunging, spending shrinking, and border crossings down, destinations like the Flathead Valley are bracing for a potentially bruising travel season.

At stake is not just economic recovery but a decades-long relationship that once turned a border into a bridge. Whether that bridge can be rebuilt in the months ahead—or whether 2025 marks the start of a deeper divide—will depend on leadership, diplomacy, and the industry’s ability to adapt in uncertain times.