New Zealand Tourism to Hit Pre-Pandemic Visitor Numbers by 2026: The Growth Roadmap

Published on December 6, 2025

The New Zealand tourism sector, once severely impacted by the global pandemic, is not just recovering—it is surging back with renewed vigor and a clear, strategic vision for the future. Official data and industry forecasts paint a picture of aggressive growth, with the country confidently setting its sights on not only recovering to pre-pandemic visitor levels but also doubling the economic value of its tourism exports in the next decade.

The commitment is clear: by 2026, Aotearoa New Zealand aims to welcome back at least the 3.89 million international visitors it hosted in 2019. This target is underpinned by a coordinated government and industry effort that prioritizes high-value tourism, sustainability, and targeted international marketing.

The Recovery Blueprint: Investing in Value and Growth

The government’s proactive strategy, known as the Tourism Growth Roadmap (and built on the previous Tourism Boost Package), serves as the backbone of this resurgence. This roadmap is focused on a dual objective: increasing the sheer number of international visitors and ensuring those visitors contribute more to the economy, emphasizing quality over just quantity.

Key investments and targets include:

• Financial Injection: The roadmap includes a significant investment package, with substantial funding dedicated to international marketing in both core (like Australia, the US, and the UK) and emerging markets.
• Targeted Demand Stimulation: Millions are being specifically allocated to boost the Major Events Fund and to attract more business events. Business travelers are highly valued because they spend significantly more per day than the average tourist and often travel during the crucial off-peak periods (March to November), helping to stabilize the sector throughout the year.
• Infrastructure Improvement: Recognizing that growth requires capacity, the roadmap includes funding for key infrastructure projects, such as improvements to the Milford Road corridor in one of the country’s most iconic visitor destinations, Milford Sound Piopiotahi.

As of the year ending September 2025, visitor arrivals are already hitting 95% of pre-pandemic (September 2019) levels, demonstrating a rapid and robust rebound, largely driven by strong numbers from neighboring Australia. Econometric models further project that tourist arrivals will trend around 620,000 in 2027, indicating continued upward momentum after the 2026 target is met.

The Economic and Employment Engine

The data confirms that tourism remains one of the foundational pillars of the New Zealand economy and job market.

• Financial Contribution: In the year ending March 2024, total tourism expenditure reached a massive NZ$44.4 billion, a record high. Critically, international tourism expenditure surged by nearly 60% to NZ$16.9 billion, returning to levels similar to 2019. This rebound highlights the success of attracting high-value international spend, which is essential as domestic tourism spending moderates.
• Job Creation: The industry is a major employer, with 303,420 New Zealanders directly or indirectly supported by the visitor economy. Direct tourism employment alone accounts for 6.4% of the country’s total jobs market—a testament to the sector’s intensive need for human capital. The sector’s direct contribution to GDP was NZ$17.0 billion, making it the country’s second-largest export earner after dairy.

The return of international visitors has been a vital stimulus, offsetting a slight decrease in domestic tourism spend as New Zealanders once again travel overseas. The goal now is to maximize the value of every visitor to ensure sustainable growth.

Navigating Challenges: Sustainability and Workforce

While the recovery is strong, the sector is proactively addressing significant long-term challenges, chief among them the need for regenerative tourism and a stable workforce.

The recovery from COVID-19, which saw over a third of tourism businesses shrinking or entering hibernation and tens of thousands of jobs lost, has fundamentally reshaped the sector. Now, the emphasis is on:

• Sustainable Destination Management: Industry voices are emphasizing the need to pair aggressive international marketing (which drives demand) with parallel investment in destination development and management. This includes essential areas like infrastructure, environmental protection, and cultural stewardship to prevent overcrowding and ensure community wellbeing. The focus is moving “beyond GDP” to integrate environmental and economic metrics.
• Workforce Development: Before the pandemic, the tourism workforce was characterized by being relatively young, with a high proportion of migrant workers (22% in 2019), and facing an hourly income gap compared to the national median. As the sector rapidly re-hires, the challenge is to grow the number of Kiwis in tourism and hospitality jobs and ensure the workforce is secure, skilled, and well-remunerated, building resilience against future shocks.
• Cruise Sector Focus: The industry and government are meeting to address a recent decline in cruise ship deployment, which is a major source of economic benefit for local communities. The goal is to create a more supportive regulatory environment to attract more ships, reversing the current decline and securing this key visitor segment.

New Zealand is not simply returning to its old normal; it is building a more resilient, sustainable, and high-value tourism industry. By focusing on premium, purpose-driven travelers, investing heavily in promotion, and strategically managing its world-class natural assets, the country is poised for a golden period of tourism growth peaking in and beyond 2026.