Thursday, March 14, 2024
After releasing the PATA Executive Summary Forecasts Report for 2024-2026 earlier last month, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has now published a more detailed Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts report for the same period. This in-depth analysis focuses on growth projections by examining the source market-destination pairs from 2024 to 2026 across the three Asia Pacific destination sub-regions, covering 39 destinations and outlining three possible future scenarios.
PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid points out that, “While most destinations within the Asia Pacific region are rebounding strongly and moving closer to pre-pandemic levels, this forecast report highlights the significant changes as experienced by the individual destinations. Therefore, it is important to understand this trend which will impact the future growth for respective destinations as compared to the overall region.”
According to the report’s medium scenario, international visitor arrivals (IVAs) to the Asia Pacific are forecasted to rise from 619 million in 2024 to 762 million in 2026, achieving a recovery rate of 111.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Asia is expected to lead this recovery, with arrivals projected to hit 564.0 million, followed by the Americas at 167.7 million and the Pacific at 30.4 million by 2026. These figures underscore the region’s resilience and its emerging significance as a travel destination.
However, when delving into the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2024-2026, it’s important to recognize that the recovery journey is not uniform across all destinations. Each location is at a different stage of recovery, influenced by its unique conditions and contributing to varying growth rates in international visitor arrivals. For instance, while many destinations in the Pacific are showing strong recovery, their growth, in terms of numbers, is relatively modest compared to larger global destinations. This detailed analysis highlights the importance of understanding the distinct recovery trajectories of each destination to fully grasp the changing dynamics of tourism in the Asia Pacific. PATA stresses the need to pay close attention to the specific recovery rates and trends of each destination, as they are crucial in understanding the broader narrative of tourism revival in the region.
The report encompasses 39 destinations, forecasting that 34 will reach or surpass their pre-pandemic visitor numbers. Japan and the Maldives are anticipated to lead the pack in terms of recovery speed. By 2026, Japan is expected to attract 49.3 million visitors, marking a 155% increase from its 2019 figures. Similarly, the Maldives is projected to welcome 2.5 million visitors, achieving a 148% return to its pre-pandemic visitor levels. These projections highlight the need for effective destination management practices to handle the resurgence in visitor arrivals.
Leading source markets such as China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia are poised to resume their vital roles in driving international visitor arrivals (IVAs) to the Asia Pacific, supported by their economic resurgence. These markets are predicted to bounce back to their pre-pandemic strengths by 2024.
Noor added, “The ramifications for destination marketing organisations (DMOs) to be more agile, flexible and robust to quick changes in the marketplace, especially output from the source market will play a crucial role on which destination will perform better than the other in the coming years. Destination marketeers and policy makers must understand that what they do in 2023, might no longer work from this year onwards, as the travel market shifts expeditiously while consumer buying power depends very much upon user-generated content (UGC). In this regard, understanding the PATA forecast report, which takes into consideration various key factors such as economic indicators, travel capacity, etc., will be crucial.”
Key insights from the report include:
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