Russia Faces Aviation Meltdown in 2025 as Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Ural Airlines, Aurora, Azimuth, and I-Fly Struggle to Stay Airborne

Published on March 31, 2025

Russia is facing a full-scale aviation meltdown in 2025 as its top carriers—including Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Ural Airlines, Aurora, Azimuth, and I-Fly—struggle to stay airborne amid crippling Western sanctions, aircraft shortages, and a collapse in international support. With more than one-third of the commercial fleet at risk of grounding and Boeing and Airbus jets becoming impossible to maintain, these airlines are scaling back routes, cancelling flights, and fighting to survive in an industry unraveling under geopolitical pressure, economic turmoil, and failing infrastructure.

Following sweeping sanctions imposed due to the war in Ukraine, Russia’s commercial airlines lost access to Western-built aircraft maintenance services and replacement parts. Major manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are prohibited from engaging with Russian entities, leaving hundreds of aircraft without long-term support.

To stay airborne, Russian airlines have turned to cannibalizing grounded aircraft for spare parts. This emergency tactic offers a temporary fix but significantly reduces the lifespan of the fleet. According to Sergey Chemezov, CEO of state defense conglomerate Rostec, 30% of foreign-built aircraft could be grounded within five years due to lack of serviceability.

Airlines Crumble Under Sanctions, Debts, and Fleet Breakdown

The effects of the crisis are not theoretical—they’re devastating and immediate. Thirty airlines in Russia are expected to declare bankruptcy in 2025, overwhelmed by mounting debts and shrinking operational capacity. Airlines simply cannot survive without a reliable fleet or spare parts supply chain.

Notably, S7 Airlines has canceled its flagship £65 million turbine engine manufacturing project in St. Petersburg. The abandonment of this key project underscores the broader failure of Russia’s pivot to domestic production and import substitution.

Meanwhile, Russia’s broader economic turmoil, including £10 billion in annual losses from Gazprom and sky-high inflation, has left the aviation sector with little access to capital or state rescue.

Nearly Every Russian Carrier Is in Crisis Mode

Russia’s aviation collapse in 2025 is not only a systemic crisis—it’s one that affects nearly every major carrier in the nation. Aeroflot, the country’s flag carrier, is facing mounting pressure as aircraft shortages and maintenance delays cripple operations. S7 Airlines, already canceling its St. Petersburg turbine engine project, is among the worst hit, while regional operators like Angara Airlines, Kazan Air Enterprise, and Azimuth are struggling to sustain domestic routes under financial duress.

Rossiya Airlines and Aurora, both subsidiaries of Aeroflot, are also seeing reduced flight activity amid the shrinking fleet. Leisure carriers such as Azur Air and I-Fly, once popular for outbound tourism, are now slashing international schedules due to aircraft unavailability. Even charter services like Aerolimousine are reeling from limited access to parts and fuel. Meanwhile, Ural Airlines, known for its extensive domestic network, is facing a logistical nightmare in keeping its aging Airbus fleet airborne without sanctioned support.

Together, these airlines reflect the broader implosion of a once-thriving aviation sector now grounded by geopolitics, economic fallout, and severe resource constraints.

Domestic Air Routes Become the Last Frontier

As international connectivity plummets, the Russian government has shifted its aviation strategy to prioritize intranational air service. Domestic flights between cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Novosibirsk, and Kazan remain the government’s focus—even as service frequency decreases.

The aim is to prevent regional isolation, though experts warn that even domestic service will soon be unsustainable without a replenished and repairable fleet.

International routes to Europe, the U.S., and even many parts of Asia have already been abandoned. Only limited connections remain to countries like China, India, Turkey, and the UAE, where geopolitical alignments are more flexible.

Rosaviatsia Confirms Dozens of Aircraft Already Retired

Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, reports that 58 commercial aircraft have already been retired since the start of the crisis. This is just the beginning of a much larger problem. With 700 Boeing and Airbus jets comprising over 90% of the country’s commercial fleet, their eventual grounding could mean the collapse of both passenger and cargo air service.

No realistic scenario exists in which Russia can quickly replace these aircraft—neither through imports nor domestic production.

Import Substitution: Ambitious but Underfunded

The Kremlin has long championed import substitution as a path to restore self-reliance in aviation. State-backed aircraft such as the Tupolev Tu-214 and Ilyushin Il-96-300 were promoted as alternatives to Boeing and Airbus.

Yet in 2025, budget allocations for these programs have been cut by 1.5 times. The reason: economic instability and lack of manufacturing scalability. These models are outdated and cannot match the efficiency or safety standards of modern Western aircraft. Furthermore, Russian factories lack the tooling and materials to scale production rapidly.

In short, these planes may keep the lights on in a few strategic routes, but they are no replacement for the hundreds of jets Russia is losing.

Russia’s Charter and Leisure Airline Sector Implodes

Leisure travel, which once boomed among Russian middle- and upper-class travelers heading to destinations like Antalya, Phuket, and Dubai, has been severely hit. Airlines such as Azur Air, I-Fly, and Nordwind are reducing their international schedules dramatically.

Tour operators, once reliant on charter partnerships, are unable to guarantee flights or travel packages. Even with rising demand for domestic tourism, many smaller regional airports lack infrastructure or airworthy planes to support increased capacity.

Charter Services, Fuel Access, and Logistics Breakdown

Private aviation and VIP charter services are also affected. Providers like Aerolimousine, Jet Express, and regional players offering business flights have seen fuel access restricted, parts delayed, and licenses suspended. While some clients can afford alternatives, the elite segment alone cannot sustain an industry built for mass transit.

Ural Airlines: A Symbol of the Fleet Maintenance Nightmare

Among regional and domestic-focused airlines, Ural Airlines stands out for its struggle to keep its aging Airbus fleet flying. With no spare parts, no maintenance contracts, and limited engineering support, Ural faces a constant logistical nightmare.

Reports suggest Ural has had to ground nearly a third of its fleet due to airworthiness concerns. As operational costs rise and reliability falls, customers are abandoning the carrier in favor of rail travel, further compounding losses.

Russia’s Shrinking Skies: Isolation Returns

From Moscow to Kamchatka, flight frequency is declining fast. Routes once considered routine—like Sochi to Kazan or Moscow to Irkutsk—are now rare and unreliable. As aviation fails, Russia risks returning to a Soviet-era model of disconnected regions and poor transportation infrastructure.

This poses significant risks for economic development, health care delivery, tourism, emergency response, and logistics.

No Relief in Sight: Economic and Political Isolation Deepens

There is no immediate path to recovery for Russian aviation. Even if Russia were to acquire new aircraft from China or Iran, these would not be enough to replace the capacity loss from Boeing and Airbus exits. Moreover, these alternatives lack certification to fly most international routes and are limited in scale.

The political decisions underpinning the crisis—particularly the war in Ukraine—remain unresolved. As long as sanctions stay in place and global suppliers refuse cooperation, Russia will find itself locked out of the global aviation ecosystem.

Russia’s aviation industry is collapsing in 2025 as Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Ural Airlines, Aurora, Azimuth, and I-Fly face grounded fleets, aircraft shortages, and crippling sanctions, threatening to bring the nation’s air travel to a standstill.

A Once-Great Aviation Power Comes to a Halt

In the early 2010s, Russia boasted one of the most expansive aviation networks in the world. Aeroflot was a SkyTeam partner. Russian carriers flew to hundreds of destinations across Europe, Asia, and North America. Domestically, the network allowed fast, efficient travel across eleven time zones.

In 2025, that legacy is gone.

Sanctions have severed its lifeline to global aviation. War has intensified economic pressures. The fleet is aging, the airlines are folding, and the domestic manufacturers are underfunded. The skies above Russia are growing quieter—not by choice, but by force.

Unless there is a dramatic geopolitical shift or massive external support, Russia’s aviation industry is likely to remain grounded for years to come.