Russia Joins South Korea, United Kingdom, China, Malaysia, Singapore, India, The United States, And More As Powerful Allies In Thailand’s 2026 New Year Tourism Boom, Counteracting Decline In Foreign Arrivals

Published on December 26, 2025

Thailand’s tourism sector is witnessing a pivotal shift in travel patterns as Russia joins South Korea, the United Kingdom, China, Malaysia, Singapore, India, and the United States as key markets for the New Year 2026 season. Despite challenges such as flooding in southern Thailand and geopolitical tensions at the Thai-Cambodian border, the growth in these markets is poised to drive the country’s tourism recovery. The strong performance from these nations reflects a promising outlook for the year-end season, with increased bookings and heightened interest in Thailand’s key destinations.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has forecasted a decline in tourism revenue for the 2026 New Year period, expecting it to reach between 70.1 billion and 76.5 billion baht. This represents a reduction of 2-9% compared to the previous year. The decline is attributed to a slower foreign tourism market, partly offset by a strong domestic tourism recovery.

TAT projects a drop in foreign tourist arrivals, with an expected range of 1.4 to 1.5 million international visitors between December 20, 2025, and January 1, 2026. This marks a decline of 6-12% compared to the same period last year. Foreign tourism revenue is anticipated to fall between 51.6 and 58 billion baht, representing a decrease of 4-15% year-on-year. This slowdown is attributed to several factors, including natural disasters and ongoing geopolitical tensions along Thailand’s borders.

However, the domestic tourism market is expected to experience an uptick. TAT anticipates a 7% increase in domestic travel during the New Year period, with around 4.96 million domestic tourist trips generating an estimated 18.5 billion baht in revenue. This is bolstered by several factors, including cooler weather, which encourages local travel, and strong tourism promotion campaigns, such as the Amazing Thailand Countdown 2026.

In terms of international tourism, TAT’s projections for the top 10 source markets during the New Year period include China, Russia, India, Malaysia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United States, Eastern Europe, and Germany. While Chinese tourists have historically been one of the largest groups visiting Thailand, TAT reports positive developments in the Chinese market. A recent visit by the Thai monarchy to China sparked renewed interest, as seen in a rise in searches for Thailand on popular Chinese travel platforms, such as Baidu and Ctrip.

Additionally, Thailand’s image is improving, especially in China, where social media platforms like Weibo and Xiaohongshu feature more content highlighting the safety, friendliness, and convenience of travel to Thailand. This shift is expected to contribute to a modest recovery in Chinese arrivals over the coming years.

Aviation also plays a key role in the tourism outlook. TAT has highlighted that at least 10 new routes are set to launch during the New Year period, including services from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam. Additionally, charter flights from Poland, the Czech Republic, Russia, and Uzbekistan will boost travel to major Thai destinations such as Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Krabi, and U-Tapao.

Despite these optimistic trends, several headwinds are challenging Thailand’s tourism sector. One major obstacle is the flooding in southern Thailand, particularly in Hat Yai, Songkhla. The heavy damage to tourist sites and infrastructure in the region has disrupted travel plans for Malaysian tourists, a significant demographic for Thailand, especially those who travel by land. With around 70% of Malaysian visitors entering Thailand via land border crossings, the floods are expected to further dampen the inflow of foreign tourists.

Moreover, the ongoing border conflict with Cambodia since December 7 has impacted tourism sentiment. While no blanket travel ban has been issued for Thailand, the international media coverage of the situation, along with travel advisories from various countries, has raised concerns among potential travelers. Countries have warned against non-essential travel to seven border provinces, which could deter tourists from booking trips to Thailand during the peak New Year season. Should the situation escalate, stricter measures could be enforced, further affecting tourism.

Regarding hotel bookings, TAT projects that average occupancy rates for major destinations in Thailand will range between 77% and 87%, with Bangkok expected to see the highest occupancy. The southern, central, and eastern regions are also expected to witness high demand, though the northeastern regions may experience slightly lower occupancy rates at 73%. Overall, domestic travel is expected to remain a vital pillar of Thailand’s tourism industry during this period.

For the hotel industry, occupancy in Bangkok during the New Year period is forecast to be around 80%, slightly lower than last year. The Thai Hotels Association (THA) attributes this decrease to the border dispute, which has affected tourism flows, particularly from ASEAN countries. However, the outlook for major destinations, including Phuket and Chiang Mai, remains strong. Five-star hotels in these locations are expected to be fully booked, which will likely lead to a surge in bookings at four-star establishments as well. Room rates during the holiday period are expected to hold steady, with prices closely mirroring those of the previous year.

While the Thai tourism sector faces challenges in the form of natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and a slow recovery in foreign arrivals, the strong domestic market and positive developments in key international markets provide optimism for the holiday season. Thailand’s tourism sector remains resilient, and with effective promotion and marketing, it is well-positioned to navigate these headwinds and build momentum for a successful 2026.