Sarasota Tourism Outlook 2026: Why “Flat” Growth is a Win for Florida’s Gulf Coast

Published on December 18, 2025

In the world of tourism marketing, growth is usually the only metric that matters. But as we look toward 2026, Sarasota County is championing a different philosophy: Quality over Quantity. After the “gold rush” years of the post-pandemic era, where Florida was one of the few open destinations in the world, the region is settling into a new, more sustainable “normal.”

According to the latest data from Visit Sarasota County (VSC), the outlook for 2026 is projected to be “flat” in terms of visitor volume—and surprisingly, that is exactly what local leaders want to see.

Beyond the Pandemic Peak

To understand why “flat” is considered a success, one must look at the context of the last five years. Erin Duggan, President and CEO of Visit Sarasota County, describes the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022 as “shooting fish in a barrel.” With international travel halted and cruises docked, Sarasota became a primary haven for those seeking sun and space.

However, 2024 and 2025 brought challenges that no marketing strategy could fix: a series of back-to-back tropical weather systems that disrupted travel seasons. As global travel has fully returned, fellow Floridians and domestic travelers are once again looking toward Europe and Asia.

Despite these factors, the data shows a resilient economy. While the number of visitors in fiscal year 2025 (2.71 million) was down slightly from 2024, their spending and total economic impact remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. In short: fewer people are coming, but those who do are spending much more.

The Luxury Shift: St. Regis and the “Bed Tax”

A major driver of this high-value tourism is the expansion of Sarasota’s luxury hotel inventory. The opening of the St. Regis on Longboat Key has been a game-changer for the county’s “bed tax” (the 6% accommodations tax). With room rates often exceeding $1,000 per night, the tax revenue generated from a single suite can outperform a dozen budget rooms.

For 2026, the county anticipates roughly $46.25 million in tourism development tax revenue. This money doesn’t just sit in a vault; it funds the very things that make Sarasota a paradise for residents and visitors alike.

• 23% goes to beach maintenance.
• 21% supports sports stadiums (like Ed Smith Stadium and Cool Today Park).
• 13% funds promotional efforts via VSC.
• 8% is dedicated to the arts, cementing Sarasota’s reputation as Florida’s Cultural Coast.

Downtown’s New Horizon

The confidence in Sarasota’s future is visible in the skyline. Wes Santos, General Manager of the Art Ovation Hotel, notes that the presence of six construction cranes in the downtown core is a clear sign of investor confidence. Even with the loss of legacy properties like the Hyatt Regency (set for redevelopment), the influx of modern, boutique, and branded hotels is keeping the area competitive.

“Sarasota is now in the same conversation as Miami and Orlando,” says Santos. The city has evolved from a sleepy retirement community into a vibrant urban destination that balances world-class beaches with a sophisticated arts scene.

The Airport Indicator

Perhaps the most telling sign of Sarasota’s health is the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (SRQ). While local hotel stays have leveled off, the airport is expecting to hit a record 4.5 million passengers in 2025—a massive leap from the 1.9 million seen in 2019. This suggests that while some travelers may be choosing short-term rentals or visiting friends and family, the “bread and butter” of the region—the inbound passenger—is stronger than ever.

Strategic Marketing for 2026

Visit Sarasota County is moving into 2026 with a surgical approach to marketing. Instead of casting a wide net, they are targeting specific high-value demographics:

• Sports Tourism: Actively recruiting competitions to facilities like Nathan Benderson Park.
• Meetings and Conventions: Filling rooms during the “shoulder seasons” when leisure travel dips.
• The Arts Enthusiast: Leveraging Sarasota’s unique status as a hub for opera, ballet, and fine arts.

The Resident Benefit

The “Quality over Quantity” mantra also serves a dual purpose: protecting the lifestyle of those who call Sarasota home. By focusing on higher spending per visitor rather than sheer volume, the county can generate the revenue needed for beach renourishment and infrastructure without the soul-crushing congestion often seen in other Florida hotspots.

As Erin Duggan puts it, “We’re residents, too. We would rather have fewer visitors spending more money than more visitors spending less money.”

A Steady Path Forward

The 2026 outlook is one of stability. After the turbulence of the early 2020s and the weather events of 2024, a “flat” year provides the breathing room needed to refine the visitor experience and invest in long-term sustainability. Sarasota isn’t just a place people are fleeing to anymore; it’s a place they are choosing—intentionally, and with a willingness to invest in the local culture.