South Africa Sees Overseas Arrivals Recover with Urgent Focus on Air Access and Visa Policies

Published on December 6, 2025

South Africa’s tourism sector is making commendable strides toward recovery after the global disruptions caused by the pandemic. However, while the country is experiencing positive growth, significant obstacles remain in place that hinder the industry’s full rebound. Improving air access and refining visa policies are among the most critical steps needed to enhance the country’s global competitiveness and sustain the positive trajectory.

Tourism Recovery Shows Positive Signs, But Gaps Remain

South Africa recently celebrated a significant milestone, welcoming 8.56 million international visitors between January and October. While these figures are promising, they tell only part of the story. A deeper analysis of the numbers reveals that key international markets, especially in Europe and Asia, are still underperforming.

David Frost, the CEO of the Southern Africa Tourism Services Association (Satsa), acknowledges the progress but cautions against overestimating the recovery. Year-to-date arrivals are at 91% of pre-pandemic levels for overseas visitors, a promising sign, but Frost urges against declaring victory prematurely, warning that such celebrations may obscure the critical challenges ahead.

The reported growth in overall arrivals is partly driven by regional and African markets, which may skew the perception of a broader recovery. While South Africa’s total arrivals show a 2% increase over pre-Covid figures, with a remarkable 31.5% year-on-year surge in October, the story changes when focusing on overseas arrivals. These remain 9% below 2019 levels, with Europe and Asia still lagging behind.

A Nuanced Look at Market Performance

The disparity between regional markets and overseas markets highlights the need for a more nuanced approach to tourism growth. While some markets have outperformed expectations, others continue to struggle.

For instance, the United States has surpassed 2019 arrival levels, reaching 105.7%, and Australia is at 109.4%. However, several European markets, which have traditionally been key to South Africa’s tourism flow, remain underperforming. Germany, despite showing impressive quarter-on-quarter growth of 126.9% for Q3 2024, is still only at 85.1% of its 2019 volumes. France follows a similar pattern, with 113.2% growth in Q3 year-on-year but just 80.4% of 2019 arrivals overall.

Frost emphasizes the importance of interpreting these growth statistics within their proper context. “Year-on-year surges can create a false sense of comfort. A strong quarter often reflects how weak the same period was the previous year,” he explains. He further cautions that such growth numbers should not be mistaken for full recovery, particularly when benchmarks are compared to 2019 levels.

Ongoing Struggles with Overseas Markets

A notable concern lies in South Africa’s overseas arrivals from China. Data from March to October 2024 shows that arrivals from China remain significantly behind, at only 42.4% of 2019 levels compared to 46.4% during the same period in 2023. This decline persists despite the introduction of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme (TTOS) aimed at boosting visitation.

This challenge highlights the need for more effective, targeted marketing strategies, as well as digital visa modernization and better access solutions for overseas visitors. These measures are essential to tap into key markets that continue to show slower recovery.

Air Connectivity: A Key to Recovery

Satsa also emphasizes the critical role of air connectivity in the tourism sector’s recovery. For example, Brazil’s remarkable recovery, with a surge from 25,672 arrivals in 2023 to 49,855 in 2024, has been supported by reinstated direct flights operated by South African Airways and LATAM. The planned introduction of the São Paulo to Cape Town route in September 2026 is expected to further boost this growth.

Similarly, the United Kingdom is making progress, with overseas arrivals exceeding 90% of pre-pandemic levels. British Airways has operated at 142% of its 2024 capacity, following recovery from earlier operational strains. However, there remain gaps in air connectivity, particularly with no direct service to Durban and limited SAA flights into Johannesburg.

“It’s not just about adding more seats,” Frost points out. “It’s about placing those seats where they will serve markets with the highest growth potential, especially in underperforming regions.” This targeted approach to air access is crucial for boosting arrivals from key international markets.

The Middle East: An Untapped Opportunity

The Middle East is another important opportunity for South Africa’s tourism recovery. Although airlift into the region is already at 109% of 2019 levels, the true potential of this market is often obscured by the way arrival data is reported. Many travellers from the Middle East are recorded as arrivals from countries like the UK, due to the region’s large expatriate population. This misreporting masks the size of the Middle Eastern market and makes it difficult to measure the region’s true value as a source of visitors.

By adopting a more nuanced approach to understanding Middle Eastern arrivals, South Africa could unlock a significant growth opportunity.

Visa Policies: A Barrier to Competitiveness

Visa policies remain a critical factor shaping South Africa’s global competitiveness. Satsa’s Frost points to the success of removing bureaucratic barriers as evidenced by the surge in arrivals from Russia following the easing of visa restrictions in 2017. Similarly, Mexico’s recent inclusion in the Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system could spark substantial growth in tourism from the region.

South Africa faces a similar opportunity to further expand its tourist base by revisiting its visa policies, particularly for markets that show untapped potential.

Ensuring Long-Term Growth and Competitiveness

Despite the positive signs of recovery, South Africa’s tourism sector is at a crossroads. The challenge now is to ensure that short-term growth translates into sustained long-term success. This requires addressing issues such as air connectivity, market diversification, and visa modernization.

As Frost notes, “The real test is whether we can translate short-term recovery into long-term competitiveness.” It is essential that the country not only matches pre-pandemic levels but surpasses them in a way that benefits the entire tourism ecosystem.

To ensure sustainable growth, South Africa’s tourism strategy must move beyond celebrating monthly growth figures and focus on long-term intelligence to future-proof the sector. By doing so, South Africa can strengthen its position as a top global destination, outpacing its pre-2019 benchmarks and achieving lasting success.