Thailand Reduces 2025 Foreign Tourist Projections To Over Thirty-Five Million, Addressing Emerging Obstacles

Published on May 3, 2025

In 2019, Thailand celebrated a record-breaking milestone, welcoming 40 million international visitors. This impressive number solidified the country’s reputation as one of the world’s top tourist destinations. The nation’s tourism industry thrived due to its rich cultural heritage, pristine beaches, bustling cities, and vibrant street food scene. These factors, combined with affordable travel options and a relatively simple visa process, made Thailand an irresistible destination for travelers worldwide.

However, in a recent update, the Thai Ministry of Finance revised its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in the country for the current year. The revised projection now estimates 36.5 million visitors, down from the previous figure of 38.5 million. This adjustment, which came with no official explanation from the government, has raised questions regarding the reasons behind the reduction. While the tourism industry had begun to show signs of recovery post-pandemic, this change could signal underlying challenges that Thailand’s tourism sector continues to face, even as many other countries around the world are seeing a resurgence in tourism.

Thailand’s 2019 tourism numbers were extraordinary, with 40 million international tourists contributing significantly to the nation’s economy. Tourism has always been a vital part of Thailand’s GDP, providing jobs, boosting local businesses, and driving the service industry. As one of the most popular international travel hubs in Asia, the country’s tourism sector is critical for its economic health. The recent reduction in the forecast, despite global recovery, is noteworthy, and raises concerns about whether Thailand’s tourism sector can return to its pre-pandemic glory.

The decision to revise the foreign tourist arrival target downward, without offering a detailed explanation, leaves room for speculation. There could be several factors at play. One possible reason could be the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. While many countries have seen travel rebound, certain regions, including Southeast Asia, have faced ongoing challenges, including stricter regulations, slower vaccination rates, or sporadic outbreaks. Additionally, global economic uncertainties, inflationary pressures, and a potential slowdown in key markets like China, which has historically contributed a significant number of tourists, could all factor into the lowered projections.

Thailand is also facing stiff competition from other destinations in the region. Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia have ramped up their efforts to attract foreign visitors, often offering unique experiences, streamlined visa processes, and competitive pricing to lure travelers away from Thailand. Despite its reputation and established brand in global tourism, Thailand now competes in a crowded field, where travelers have an increasing number of options.

Another possible explanation for the lowered forecast could be the geopolitical and economic conditions in major source markets like Europe, North America, and China. The global economic slowdown, along with rising airfare costs and other financial pressures on consumers, might discourage people from making international trips. Additionally, some countries have imposed new travel restrictions, or travelers may face difficulties with flight availability and increased costs, especially on long-haul flights.

In a bid to streamline the entry process and make the travel experience more efficient, Thailand has also recently implemented a new Digital Arrival Card (TDAC). This initiative, which became effective on May 1, requires all non-Thai nationals entering the country via land, air, or sea to complete and submit the form online before arriving in Thailand. The TDAC is designed to reduce the time spent at immigration counters and create a more organized and efficient system, especially during peak travel periods. With this digital card, Thailand aims to enhance the overall experience for both tourists and residents while making the entry process smoother and quicker.

The Digital Arrival Card is structured into three distinct sections that travelers must complete before entering the country. The first section requires travelers to provide personal information such as their full name, nationality, passport details, and other basic information. This ensures that all travelers are identified accurately and allows the immigration authorities to have key information before their arrival.

The second section focuses on travel and accommodation details. Here, travelers are asked to provide specifics such as their flight details, including the airline, flight number, and arrival time, as well as the address of their accommodation during their stay. This section helps Thai authorities ensure that travelers have confirmed travel plans and are properly accounted for upon their arrival.

The final section addresses health concerns. In this section, travelers must declare their current health status, including any pre-existing conditions, illnesses, or treatments they may be undergoing. This health check is particularly important as Thailand, like many other countries, wants to ensure that incoming travelers do not pose a health risk to the local population. Given the ongoing concerns regarding health and safety following the pandemic, this section serves as a precautionary measure to mitigate any potential health risks that could arise from international travel.

Once all sections of the form are completed, it is submitted for review. The TDAC system will validate the information to ensure accuracy and completeness before sending a confirmation. This verification process is crucial in ensuring that the data provided is consistent and up to date, as well as reducing the likelihood of errors during the entry process. After the form is successfully submitted and verified, travelers will receive a digital card sent to the email address they provided.

The digital card must then be presented to immigration officers upon arrival in Thailand. This system eliminates the need for paper-based arrival cards, which have traditionally been filled out during the flight or upon landing. By moving to a digital format, Thailand is not only speeding up the process but also aligning itself with global trends toward more efficient, tech-driven tourism systems.

To complete the process, travelers simply need to visit the official website at tdac.immigration.go.th. After selecting the ‘Arrival Card’ option, they will be prompted to enter the required personal information, followed by travel and accommodation details. Once these fields are filled out, travelers can submit their health status information. Upon successful submission, they will receive a digital card that they must keep accessible for presentation at the immigration counter.

While this new system is intended to improve the efficiency of the entry process, it also highlights Thailand’s commitment to adapting to the evolving needs of modern travelers. By leveraging digital technology, Thailand is making it easier for tourists to visit and ensuring that the country remains competitive in the global tourism market.

The implementation of the Digital Arrival Card also reflects Thailand’s continued efforts to modernize and streamline its infrastructure, especially in the wake of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is clear that Thailand understands the need for flexibility and innovation in the tourism sector, as well as the importance of adapting to the changing expectations of international visitors.

In conclusion, Thailand’s adjustment to its tourism forecast, alongside the introduction of the Digital Arrival Card, signals the country’s response to the shifting dynamics of global travel. While the reduction in tourist arrival projections may point to challenges in the current tourism climate, Thailand’s proactive approach to improving the travel experience with technology will help maintain its appeal as a top global destination. As the world continues to navigate the post-pandemic landscape, Thailand’s ability to adapt to new circumstances and provide a seamless experience for visitors will likely determine how quickly it can regain its position as a leader in international tourism.