Thailand Sees Nearly Seven Percent Decline in Foreign Tourist Arrivals This Year with Geopolitical Conflicts and New Flight Openings Offering Hope for Recovery

Published on August 8, 2025

Thailand Suffers Nearly Seven Percent Decline in Foreign Tourist Arrivals: By early August 2025, approximately 19.57 million foreign visitors have registered under the Visit Thailand Year program that is experiencing a drop of nearly seven percent on previous years. This is the result of ongoing global geopolitical conflicts which have affected major travel markets and an overall delayed recovery of the world economy, keeping international travel a challenge. Nevertheless, recovery is on the horizon with the launch of new flights to seek new markets, aimed at making Thailand more easily accessible. These steps should, along with the return of Chinese travellers bode well for the ailing Thai tourism sector in coming months.

Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports announced on Monday that foreign tourist arrivals dropped by 6.56% in the first seven months of the year, totaling 19.57 million visitors, A drop when evaluated against the corresponding period from the prior year. The fall continues to demonstrate the struggle of Thailand’s tourism industry post-COVID but there are still routes, and new campaigns for recovery and growth, mainly with emerging flight traffic.

The Impact of Global Factors on Thailand’s Tourism Industry

This drop in foreign tourism numbers comes as no surprise, given the global socio-political situation, economic factors, and ongoing travel restrictions. Despite efforts to revive the tourism sector, Thailand has yet to reach pre-pandemic tourism levels, which saw nearly 40 million visitors in 2019.

China Reclaims Its Position as Thailand’s Largest Source Market

One key aspect of the current tourism scenario is the recovery of Thailand’s largest source market, China. For the first time since the pandemic, China has reclaimed its position as Thailand’s leading source of international tourists, contributing 2.73 million visitors in the first seven months of 2025. This shift is largely attributed to the easing of restrictions on international travel between China and Thailand, as well as the growing demand for international leisure travel from Chinese tourists.

The impact of China’s reopening post-pandemic cannot be underestimated, as Chinese travelers have historically been a major contributor to Thailand’s tourism industry. The recovery of this market brings hope for a gradual rebound in international arrivals, even though the overall tourism figures remain below the 2019 peak.

The Economic Slowdown and Its Effects on Thailand’s Tourism Forecast

Earlier in 2025, Thailand’s Finance Ministry adjusted its forecast for the number of foreign tourists arriving in the country. The revised figure now stands at 34.5 million visitors for the full year, a reduction from the earlier projection of 36.5 million. While the forecast remains optimistic compared to the 2020-2021 periods, it still reflects a significant gap when compared to pre-pandemic numbers.

The decline in tourism projections can be attributed to a variety of influencing factors:

• Global Economic Slowdown: Economic challenges, particularly in major markets such as Europe and the United States, are causing reduced spending on international leisure travel. The weakening purchasing power of tourists from these regions has resulted in fewer arrivals to Thailand.
• Rising Geopolitical Tensions: The geopolitical landscape continues to impact global travel. Heightened tensions in regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe have caused some travelers to reconsider their plans, particularly those who previously visited Southeast Asia.
• Ongoing Pandemic Recovery: Although the world has largely moved beyond the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the tourism industry’s recovery remains gradual, as numerous potential travelers are still hesitant to resume international trips due to ongoing health fears and financial instability.

The Middle East and African Markets: A Challenging Yet Promising Segment

Thailand’s Tourism Authority (TAT) has set an ambitious target of attracting 1 million visitors from the Middle East and Africa in 2025. However, the challenges of meeting this goal are significant. Geopolitical conflicts in these regions are major deterrents to travel, especially in markets where security is a concern.

The Middle Eastern market, in particular, has been significantly impacted by political instability and regional conflicts, which have limited the potential for growth in tourism. However, the Tourism Authority of Thailand remains optimistic, citing new flight openings this winter as a potential means to tap into previously underserved markets. These new flights are expected to make it easier for travelers from the Middle East and Africa to visit Thailand, despite the current geopolitical challenges.

New Flight Routes: A Potential for Tourism Recovery

While 2025 has seen a decline in foreign tourist numbers, there is still a silver lining. Thailand’s strategic push to open new flight routes during the winter months could provide a boost to tourism arrivals. These new routes are particularly targeted at underserved markets, such as India, the Middle East, and parts of Southeast Asia, where demand for travel to Thailand is growing.

In particular, the Indian market has become a key focus for the Thai tourism sector, as India is one of the fastest-growing outbound travel markets. Additionally, Middle Eastern travelers are increasingly seeking destinations in Southeast Asia, and Thailand, with its established reputation for hospitality and tourism infrastructure, remains a top choice for these visitors.

The Role of International Airports in Supporting Growth

Thailand’s international airports, particularly Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok, continue to play a pivotal role in facilitating this growth. The airport has seen a steady increase in international flights, with several airlines planning to increase their frequencies in the coming months. This increased connectivity will likely encourage more travelers to consider Thailand as their destination of choice.

New initiatives to improve the passenger experience, streamline immigration processes, and enhance air travel infrastructure are also expected to support the recovery of Thailand’s tourism industry. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is also working closely with the Ministry of Transport and aviation authorities to ensure that Thailand remains competitive in attracting international travelers.

Domestic Tourism: A Key Component of Recovery

Although foreign arrivals are declining, Thailand’s domestic tourism sector is experiencing steady growth. Local Thai travelers are playing an important role in supporting the country’s tourism industry, with many opting for staycations or regional travel. This shift is partly driven by changing travel preferences and the ongoing recovery from the pandemic.

Promoting Local Attractions

The Thai government and local tourism bodies have focused their efforts on promoting local attractions and cultural heritage sites within the country. Efforts to highlight destinations such as Chiang Mai, Phuket, and Ayutthaya have seen positive results, with more locals choosing to explore the beauty of their own country.

By supporting the development of sustainable tourism and encouraging domestic travel, Thailand is creating a robust foundation for long-term growth in the tourism sector.

Future Outlook: Optimism Amidst Challenges

Looking forward, the future of Thailand’s tourism industry remains cautiously optimistic. Although the country faces challenges in attracting foreign visitors due to external factors like geopolitical conflicts and economic pressures, there are several reasons to be hopeful.

Key Drivers for Future Growth:

• Infrastructure Development: Continued investment in tourism infrastructure, including transportation, hotels, and tourism facilities, will enhance the visitor experience and make Thailand even more accessible.
• Cultural Tourism: The Thai government is placing a strong emphasis on cultural tourism, with initiatives to showcase Thailand’s rich history, festivals, and traditional arts to both international and domestic visitors.
• Sustainable Tourism: Thailand is also positioning itself as a leader in sustainable tourism, with policies aimed at reducing environmental impacts and promoting eco-friendly travel experiences.

Navigating Challenges and Leveraging Opportunities

Tourism in Thailand is at a turning point. The 6.56% decline in foreign tourist arrivals to 110,182 in the first seven months, though significant, does not mark the end of the road for Thailand’s tourism industry. Given the return of China as a top source market and new opportunities in air services, tourism promotion and cultural attractions, Thailand has every reason to be confident it will remain among the world’s tourism leaders.

In the next few years foreign tourists arrivals to Thailand have fallen by almost 7 per cent due primarily to geopolitical conflicts and the global economic slowdown. However, the unveiling of new flight routes could give some ray of hope for recovery as it may increase arrivals from nascent markets, and the return of Chinese tourists signals a good sign for tourism revival.

In the meantime, regional challenges from geopolitics and global economy slowdown will linger, but long-term growth in China rests on this strategic positioning by the country to develop infrastructure, tourism sustainably and market diversification for further years.