Thailand, Southeast Asia at the New Risk of Losing Chinese Tourists to Japan, East Asia, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Malaysia

Published on February 24, 2025

Tourism analysts have suggested that Thailand’s ambitious goal of attracting up to 9 million Chinese tourists is facing serious challenges, particularly as increasing safety concerns are pushing many Chinese travelers toward Japan and Singapore. This shift in travel preferences has reportedly been driven by a recent high-profile kidnapping case involving a Chinese actor, which appears to have heightened concerns about security in Thailand.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence research, the number of flight cancellations from China to Thailand surged by 94% in January, reflecting growing hesitations among Chinese tourists. As a result, many visitors who would typically choose Thailand’s beaches and cultural sites for the Lunar New Year period instead opted for Japan’s ski resorts and hot springs, as well as Singapore’s more structured and secure environment.

Eric Zhu, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, has indicated that while Thailand has attempted to address these concerns, negative news coverage has significantly outweighed its efforts to boost safety, making it more difficult for the country to restore its reputation as a safe destination.

Japan’s Tourism Boom: How It Has Surpassed Thailand as the Top Destination

At the same time, Japan has experienced a remarkable surge in Chinese tourism, benefiting from a weaker yen and competitive airfare prices, with tickets as low as $50 from Shanghai to Tokyo. This affordability, combined with Japan’s strong reputation for safety and cleanliness, has reportedly contributed to Chinese travelers selecting Japan over Thailand in growing numbers.

Figures from the Japan National Tourism Organization suggest that Japan welcomed a record 980,000 Chinese visitors in January, more than double the number from the same period last year. In contrast, Thailand reported only 711,000 Chinese arrivals through February 2, demonstrating a clear shift in travel trends.

In addition to Japan’s rise, visa-free entry agreements in Singapore and Malaysia have also played a role in diverting Chinese visitors from Thailand. Both countries have been actively marketing themselves as premier destinations for Chinese travelers, leveraging ease of entry and a strong safety record to attract higher numbers of tourists.

How Thailand’s Response May Shape Its Recovery

In an effort to regain the trust of Chinese travelers, the Thai government has taken several actions, including shutting down illicit businesses linked to criminal activities in Myanmar and collaborating with neighboring countries to crack down on scam operations. These enforcement measures have reportedly led to the rescue of over 1,000 foreign workers, including several hundred Chinese nationals.

Despite these efforts, industry analysts remain uncertain about whether such crackdowns will be enough to fully restore confidence among potential travelers from China.

Chinese tourists have historically been Thailand’s top source of international tourism revenue, contributing significantly to the nation’s tourism sector, which represents around 12% of Thailand’s GDP and provides employment for nearly one-fifth of the country’s workforce. The country has projected $55 billion in tourism-related revenue, but with the current slowdown in Chinese arrivals, meeting this target may become increasingly difficult.

The Impact on Thailand’s 2024 Tourism Targets

Tourism industry observers have noted that Thailand may struggle to reach its goal of 9 million Chinese tourists unless major safety concerns are resolved by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts suggest that if these issues persist beyond, Thailand may fail to attract more than 7.5 million Chinese visitors in 2025, significantly below its intended target.

There have been some early signs of recovery, with travel data from China Trading Desk, a firm that tracks travel demand from the Chinese market, showing that March bookings from China to Thailand remain 10% lower than the previous year. However, projections for April and May indicate a slight improvement, with expected growth of over 3%.

Subramania Bhatt, CEO of China Trading Desk, has stated that while concerns about travel to Thailand have started to ease, overall recovery remains far behind pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, Singapore and Malaysia continue to see a stronger resurgence in Chinese visitor numbers, further complicating Thailand’s efforts to regain its market share.

The Need for Diversification in Thailand’s Tourism Strategy

Tourism stakeholders have suggested that Thailand’s tourism industry may need to expand its offerings beyond its traditional hotspots, such as Bangkok, Phuket, and Chiang Mai, in order to maintain long-term competitiveness.

Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotel Association, has indicated that even domestic Thai travelers are choosing to visit Japan instead of domestic destinations like Phuket, largely due to currency exchange rates and perceived value.

He has argued that Thailand must do more to expand its tourism portfolio, developing new attractions and destinations to entice higher-spending tourists who may otherwise choose alternative locations.

• Expanding regional tourism: Encouraging visitors to explore lesser-known Thai destinations beyond the main tourist hubs.
• Enhancing safety and security measures: Strengthening enforcement to combat scams and illegal activities that deter potential travelers.
• Increasing investment in premium tourism: Developing luxury travel experiences to attract high-spending visitors who prioritize safety and exclusivity.

Global Implications: How Thailand’s Struggles Reflect a Changing Travel Market

The challenges faced by Thailand in attracting Chinese tourists highlight broader trends in global travel, particularly as safety concerns and economic conditions influence tourist decisions.

For Chinese travelers, factors such as exchange rates, entry requirements, and perceived security risks have become major considerations when selecting destinations. Japan’s current success in drawing large numbers of Chinese tourists suggests that affordability and safety will remain critical factors in international travel recovery.

Other countries looking to attract Chinese visitors—such as Malaysia, South Korea, and Indonesia—may take cues from Japan’s approach, focusing on:

• Streamlining entry requirements to make travel easier.
• Promoting tourism beyond traditional cities and resorts.
• Addressing safety concerns to maintain trust among foreign visitors.

Thailand’s current tourism struggles serve as a reminder of how quickly global travel patterns can shift, and the country’s ability to adapt its strategy may determine its position as a leading tourist destination in the years ahead.

As competition for Chinese travelers intensifies, Thailand’s success in rebuilding confidence and diversifying its tourism industry will likely set the tone for its future standing in the Asia-Pacific travel market.