Thailand’s Tourism Industry Faces Sharp Decline With Less than 2% Growth In Foreign Arrivals

Published on April 9, 2025

Thailand’s tourism faces challenges with a modest 2% increase in arrivals, battling economic setbacks, declining key markets, and fierce global competition in 2025.

Thailand experienced a modest uptick in tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2025, with 9.5 million visitors, marking a 1.91% increase from 9.37 million in the same period of 2024. period of 2024. However, this growth is tempered by concerning trends, including a sharp drop in arrivals from 3,709,102 in January to 3,119,445 in February, followed by a further decrease to 2,720,457 in March.

A significant factor contributing to the decline is the drop in arrivals from China, which fell drastically from 662,779 in January to just 297,113 in March, largely due to ongoing issues with scam centers. Furthermore, tourist numbers from neighboring Malaysia also saw a sharp decrease in March, attributed to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan (see the detailed chart of arrivals from 91 countries below).

While April brought expectations of recovery with the popular Songkran New Year celebrations, the month has already faced setbacks, including the earthquake on March 28 and the “tariffquake” caused by actions taken by Trump on April 2.

From April to September, traditionally the low season, the decline is expected to continue. Although the long-term European market has seen a reduction, this was somewhat balanced in recent years by short-term markets in Asia/Pacific and long-stay visitors from the Middle East. This year’s outlook appears bleak, as the economic repercussions of the “tariffquake” are significantly affecting future prospects.

The Chinese market is unlikely to recover swiftly, as China shifts from being predominantly an outbound market to increasingly becoming an inbound destination, a shift similar to Japan’s transformation.

As a result, the original target of 39 million visitors for 2025 is no longer realistic. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is now revising its expectations to between 36 and 37 million.

The road to recovery is further hindered by Thailand’s struggle to reinvent itself as a tourism destination. Despite efforts to refresh old attractions, the country faces challenges from overexposure and stiff competition from more value-driven destinations like Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

Ongoing negative publicity from recurrent crises only deepens the situation.

In response, Thailand is shifting its focus to India, a growing short-haul market known for mass tourism. As a result, places like Pattaya are seeing an influx of Indian tourists on budget tours, many of whom are solo male travelers seeking specific experiences.

While there is growing optimism around the potential legalization of casinos and the economic benefits it could bring, concerns about long-term socio-cultural impacts, doubts about enforcement, and conflicts with Buddhist values complicate the issue.

Thailand’s tourism sector is also facing “structural issues” that need serious attention, similar to the recent building collapse. Unfortunately, the travel industry has yet to address these fundamental challenges with the necessary level of critical thinking.

However, the outlook for this year appears less optimistic due to the ongoing economic repercussions from the “tariffquake,” which are severely impacting tourism prospects.

International Tourist Arrivals (January – March 2025)