The 2024 presidential election to reshape the U.S. commercial aviation landscape? Why you need to know?

Published on November 6, 2024

By: Paramita Sarkar

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election stands to reshape the commercial aviation landscape, influencing key areas such as aviation policy, sustainable fuel development, mergers and acquisitions, and air traffic control (ATC) privatization.

Election Campaign Impact on Air Traffic Operations

Presidential campaign events have already introduced extensive Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) across U.S. airspace, impacting operations near major cities.

A notable example was the TFR implemented over Wilmington, Delaware, in early August 2024, restricting a 12-nautical-mile core up to 17,999 feet, disrupting regular flight paths and prompting enhanced security measures.

Policy Implications and Sustainable Aviation

The 2024 election could directly impact policies on trade, infrastructure, and sustainable aviation, with both major parties taking divergent approaches:

Trade Policies: A Democratic win might reduce trade barriers, fostering stable international aviation supply chains. A Republican administration, however, could increase tariffs, potentially raising operational costs.

Airport Infrastructure: The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s $25 billion investment in airport modernization could see sustained momentum, though Republicans might prioritize traditional infrastructure with less focus on sustainability.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): A Democratic administration would likely expand SAF tax incentives, whereas Republicans may downscale green initiatives while retaining SAF programs due to their alignment with domestic production interests.

Airlines Mergers and Acquisitions: Antitrust and Market Consolidation

The election outcome will also influence the regulatory landscape for airline mergers:

Democratic Approach: Historically stricter on antitrust issues, Democratic administrations have blocked mergers to maintain competitive markets, most recently with the DOJ’s opposition to JetBlue’s acquisition of Spirit Airlines.

Republican Approach: Known for a more business-friendly stance, a Republican administration might streamline merger approvals, favoring economic benefits and industry consolidation.

ATC Privatization: Revisiting Long-Standing Debates

The ATC privatization debate could resurface, with Republican administrations traditionally advocating for privatization to enhance efficiency and streamline operations, citing successful models in Canada, the UK, and Germany.

Conversely, Democrats may prefer to maintain the current FAA-operated ATC system, supporting existing modernization initiatives and FAA funding increases.

Future of U.S. Aviation: Policy and Industry Stability at Stake

From sustainable initiatives to regulatory oversight, the next administration’s policies will shape the trajectory of U.S. aviation, influencing everything from airport infrastructure to the viability of SAF and merger opportunities.

This election’s impact will be profound, setting the pulse for American aviation through the remainder of the decade.