Tropical storm Philippe heads for Bermuda to Atlantic Canada

Friday, October 6, 2023

Tropical Storm Philippe is poised to make a formidable impact as it barrels toward northern New England and Atlantic Canada. While the storm will undergo a transition to a more winter-style system, it still promises to deliver a powerful punch, especially in terms of torrential rainfall.

As of Thursday afternoon, Philippe was positioned approximately 400 miles south of Bermuda, boasting sustained winds of 50 mph and moving north at 13 mph. Its organization remained somewhat chaotic, with the heaviest rains and gusty thunderstorms located east of its center.

AccuWeather’s forecasts have been spot on, as Philippe recently took a northward turn after unleashing torrential rain, flash floods, mudslides, and washouts in parts of the Leeward Islands. While it’s predicted to pass west of Bermuda as a tropical storm, the islands should brace for rough seas, heavy rain, and strong winds in the coming days.

As Philippe progresses northward, some strengthening is conceivable, particularly if thunderstorms encircle its core, notes AccuWeather’s Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

However, Philippe’s path becomes complex beyond Bermuda, where it encounters cooler waters, a non-tropical system, and an approaching cold front. The latest trajectory has Philippe making landfall near the Maine and New Brunswick border late Saturday night to Sunday morning.

Anticipating heavy rainfall and gusty winds, Philippe has received a “less than one” rating on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in New England and Atlantic Canada.

While Philippe may not have the same intensity as Lee, which caused extensive damage a few weeks ago, its interaction with a non-tropical system is expected to result in significant rainfall. The strongest winds capable of causing damage and power outages will be near and to the northeast of the center upon landfall, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

Tropical-storm-force wind gusts ranging from 40 to 60 mph will extend across northeastern Maine and much of the Gulf of St. Lawrence region in Canada. In Maine and Atlantic Canada, the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for Philippe is 70 mph, just shy of hurricane strength.

The heaviest rainfall will target the area from Maine to southeastern Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, with 1-4 inches of rain expected, along with localized higher amounts. Given the already saturated ground from recent storms, this could lead to flash floods, mudslides, washouts, and urban flooding.

Philippe’s impact will extend far and wide, with the combination of heavy rain, strong winds, and elevated tides posing significant travel challenges, particularly around Halifax, Nova Scotia, and Saint John, New Brunswick.

The drenching rainfall, due in part to an approaching cold front, is likely to take on a banded structure, with some communities experiencing heavy rain while others receive little to none, a departure from the typical uniform distribution of tropical storm rainfall.

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