Turkey Unites Russia, Norway, Romania, and Belarus: Find Out Which Nations’ Currencies Are Set to Plummet in 2026 and How it Might Affect Tourists

Published on December 23, 2025

As 2026 approaches, the currency landscape in Europe is marked by divergent trajectories. Several governments and international institutions have released forecasts that signal depreciation in certain currencies. This article synthesizes official reports and monetary policy analyses to explain which European currencies are expected to fall in 2026 and why those declines are anticipated. The focus is on the Turkish lira, the Russian ruble, the Romanian leu, and the Norwegian krone—currencies for which official projections or policy documents imply weakness relative to major foreign currencies.

Turkish Lira

Turkey’s currency has been under persistent pressure in recent years due to high inflation, persistent current‑account deficits and heavy dollarization within the domestic financial system. The Turkish government’s Medium‑Term Programme 2026‑2028 provides the most explicit official indication of further lira depreciation. In the programme’s macroeconomic forecasts, policymakers assume that the average exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar will increase markedly. The official plan projects the average rate to rise to 46.60 lira per U.S. dollar in 2026, up from 39.63 in 2025 and 32.83 in 2024. Such a trajectory implies further weakening of the lira because a higher number of lira are needed to purchase each dollar.

Several factors explain why Ankara anticipates a weaker currency. First, Turkey faces a combination of double‑digit inflation and expansive fiscal policies. Although policymakers have tightened monetary conditions, inflation remains far above the central bank’s target and threatens to erode the currency’s purchasing power. Second, the external sector continues to be a source of vulnerability. Turkey imports most of its energy and industrial inputs, leading to chronic current‑account deficits that must be financed through capital inflows. When global risk appetite wanes or domestic policies appear inconsistent, foreign investors demand higher risk premiums or reduce exposure, leading to lira depreciation. Third, the authorities plan to maintain competitive export dynamics. A gradually declining lira supports exporters by keeping Turkish goods relatively inexpensive in foreign markets. The government’s forecast in the Medium‑Term Programme therefore reflects both macroeconomic reality and an implicit policy preference for a weaker exchange rate to aid rebalancing.

Russian Ruble

Russia’s ruble is another currency expected to depreciate in 2026. The Bank of Russia’s Macroeconomic Survey of Professional Forecasters collects projections from financial institutions and research centres. In the latest survey, analysts forecast the average U.S. dollar–ruble exchange rate to rise to 90.3 rubles per dollar in 2026, compared with 83.8 in 2025. This forecast implies a weakening ruble, continuing the trend of depreciation that began with the geopolitical shocks of 2022.

Several structural factors are driving these expectations. Western sanctions continue to constrain Russia’s access to global financial markets and advanced technology, limiting investment and productivity growth. Reduced energy export revenues, particularly from Europe, weaken the balance of payments and pressure the ruble. Moreover, the Russian government has increased fiscal spending to support the military and social programmes, widening the budget deficit. Although the central bank has at times raised interest rates aggressively to stabilise the currency, the underlying macroeconomic pressures—sanctions, declining export earnings and high military spending—point to continued depreciation. The professional forecasters surveyed by the Bank of Russia incorporate these factors into their expectations, hence the projection of a weaker ruble in 2026.

Romanian Leu

While the Romanian leu has enjoyed relative stability against the euro in recent years, official assessments suggest that this stability may be unsustainable. The International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Article IV Consultation for Romania, an official review by a multilateral institution, notes that the leu’s exchange rate has been kept stable through interventions. The report argues that maintaining a very stable exchange rate has contributed to rising external imbalances and that the currency appears overvalued relative to fundamentals. The IMF therefore recommends that Romanian authorities allow more two‑way flexibility in the exchange rate to enhance resilience and improve competitiveness. It warns that maintaining an overvalued currency leaves the economy vulnerable to shocks and that rapid depreciation could harm borrowers with unhedged foreign‑currency loans.

The implication is that policymakers may need to tolerate a gradual depreciation of the leu. Romania has been running current‑account deficits, financed mainly by portfolio inflows and European Union funds. Allowing the leu to weaken would make exports more competitive and reduce import demand, helping to correct these deficits. At the same time, a more flexible exchange rate would reduce the burden on foreign‑exchange reserves and monetary policy. Although the Romanian National Bank has not published a numerical exchange‑rate forecast, the IMF’s official analysis points to a likely depreciation if the leu is allowed to float more freely.

Norwegian Krone

Norway’s krone has depreciated since late 2024, reflecting lower oil prices and expectations of looser monetary policy. The Norges Bank outlines this dynamic in its Monetary Policy Report 4/2025. It explains that the import‑weighted krone exchange‑rate index weakened by more than two percent between September and December 2025 and notes that the krone is weaker than projected in previous reports. The depreciation is attributed to a decline in oil prices and to markets pricing in narrower interest‑rate differentials as other central banks keep rates higher for longer. While the bank’s baseline projection assumes the krone will remain broadly unchanged going forward, the report also indicates that markets expect Norwegian policy rates to be reduced in mid‑2026, a factor that could exert further downward pressure on the currency.

Despite Norway’s strong fiscal position and substantial sovereign wealth fund, the krone is sensitive to commodity prices and international interest‑rate differentials. If oil prices remain subdued or global risk sentiment deteriorates, the krone may weaken further. Additionally, domestic inflation is projected to decline, allowing Norges Bank to cut rates sooner than some peer central banks. Narrowing rate differentials typically reduce the attractiveness of a currency to investors. Therefore, even though Norges Bank does not explicitly forecast a weaker krone, the combination of recent depreciation, expected rate cuts and lower oil prices leads analysts to believe that the currency could continue to fall in 2026.

Comparison and Conclusions

The anticipated depreciation of these currencies reveals how economic fundamentals and policy choices interact. In Turkey, structural imbalances and a desire to support exports lead the government to forecast a significantly weaker lira. Russia’s ruble is pressured by sanctions, reduced energy revenues and expansionary fiscal policy, with official forecasts expecting depreciation. Romania’s leu, currently kept strong through intervention, is considered overvalued by the IMF, and greater flexibility implies a weaker currency going forward. Norway’s krone has already weakened and, while the central bank assumes stability, market expectations of rate cuts and soft commodity prices suggest further downside risk.

Not all European currencies face the same prospects. Several central banks in the region, such as those in Sweden or the Czech Republic, project stable or appreciating currencies thanks to stronger external balances and credible monetary policies. The four currencies analysed here share common themes: high inflation or overvaluation, external imbalances, reliance on commodity exports, and policy frameworks that either explicitly or implicitly favour depreciation.

As 2026 unfolds, currency movements will continue to be influenced by global economic conditions, commodity prices and domestic policy decisions. Investors and policymakers should watch how these factors evolve in the Turkish, Russian, Romanian and Norwegian economies. Official forecasts suggest that these currencies are more likely to weaken than strengthen, but the pace and magnitude of depreciation will depend on how effectively governments address their underlying macroeconomic challenges.

Reference List

1. Medium‑Term Programme 2026‑2028 (Turkey) – Annex 1 of the Turkish government’s medium‑term plan provides macroeconomic and fiscal targets, including the official projection that the average U.S. dollar–lira exchange rate will rise from 39.63 in 2025 to 46.60 in 2026[1].
2. Bank of Russia – Macroeconomic Survey of Professional Forecasters (2024) – The central bank’s survey reports that analysts expect the average U.S. dollar–ruble exchange rate to increase from 83.8 in 2025 to 90.3 rubles per dollar in 2026[2].
3. IMF Article IV Consultation for Romania (2025) – The IMF notes that Romania’s exchange rate has remained too stable and appears overvalued; it recommends greater flexibility and warns that unhedged foreign‑currency loans could deteriorate if the leu depreciates[3][4].
4. Norges Bank Monetary Policy Report 4/2025 – The report observes that the krone weakened by more than two percent between September and December 2025 and is weaker than previously projected; it attributes the decline to lower oil prices and narrower interest‑rate differentials[5]. While the bank assumes the krone will remain broadly unchanged, the report acknowledges that markets expect policy rate cuts in mid‑2026[6].