Thai GDP Growth Impacts Inflation & Estimates

Monday, February 21, 2022

The economy of Thailand grew on a faster pace than what was expected last quarter, buoyed by rising exports and arrival of tourists, making its revival firm as it faces risks in 2022 due to inflation and the omicron.  During October-December, gross domestic product rose 1.9% from a year ago. The National Economic and Social Development Council explained this on Monday. In a Bloomberg survey that beat the median growth estimate of 0.8% and compares with the prior quarter’s revised 0.2% contraction.  For 2022, the council maintained its 3.5% to 4.5% GDP expansion outlook while raising its forecast of inflation to 1.5%-2.5%, from 0.9%-1.9% in November. 

In 2022, growth will be helped by increasing demand as the restrictions related to pandemic eased and vaccinations continues, together with recovery in tourism, government spending and external demand in the middle of constant global growth. Danucha Pichayanan, NESDC secretary-general, explained at a briefing Monday, adding that inflation will be a key pressure this year. To quote Amonthep Chawla, head of research at CIMB Bank Thai Pcl, “The big question is if the momentum can be susta ned after government stimulus measures turned out to be the key to recovery last year. The private sector should drive the recovery this year but it continues to face uncertainties from omicron, rising prices and supply disruptions. Still, easier rules for foreigner travelers should support the tourism sector and the overall economy.”

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