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China: Mutual visa-free agreements boost Lunar New Year travel

Monday, February 19, 2024

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China’s travel and tourism sector witnessed a significant rebound during the Lunar New Year holiday, signaling a robust recovery in consumer spending within the world’s second-largest economy. The Lunar New Year holiday in China, a period rich with cultural significance and traditionally a barometer for consumer sentiment, saw a remarkable boost in international travel, underscoring the tourism sector’s vibrant recovery.

The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday witnessed 3.6 million tourist departures alongside 3.23 million arrivals, a testament to the effectiveness of mutual visa-free agreements with certain countries. This surge in cross-border travel not only highlights the growing appeal of China as a premier tourist destination but also reflects the Chinese people’s increasing enthusiasm for international travel.

The enhanced outbound and inbound movement contributed significantly to the dynamism of China’s tourism industry during the Lunar New Year, further emphasizing the holiday’s importance as a key metric for evaluating shifts in consumer behavior and economic health.

According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the eight-day festival saw an impressive 474 million domestic trips, marking a 34.3% increase from the previous year, and a 19% rise compared to the same period in 2019. This resurgence in travel activity translated to a substantial financial boost, with tourists spending nearly 632.7 billion yuan ($87.95 billion), a 47.3% jump year-over-year and a 7.7% increase from 2019 levels.

The surge in travel and spending comes as a positive development for Chinese policymakers, who have been actively seeking ways to enhance domestic consumption amid the country’s struggle with deflationary pressures.

Despite the encouraging figures, analysts, including those from Nomura, caution against over-interpretation of the data. They attribute the surge partly to pent-up demand, as this was the first Lunar New Year celebration since 2019 not dampened by pandemic restrictions. Furthermore, they note that while overall spending has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, tourism revenue per trip has yet to fully recover, indicating potential challenges in sustaining this growth momentum.

As China’s stock market responded positively, especially within the tourism sector, all eyes remain on the Chinese government for potential stimulus measures to further support economic recovery. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China’s decision to maintain a key policy rate steady reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, amid global economic uncertainties and the anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve’s future actions, which could influence China’s policy space and economic outlook.

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