Global tourism at 88% pre-pandemic, UNWTO eyes full recovery by 2024

Sunday, January 21, 2024

UNWTO: 2024 poised for full tourism recovery, reaching pre-pandemic levels with 1.3 billion arrivals in 2023, driven by increased demand and air connectivity.

In 2024, global tourism is poised to rebound to levels seen before the pandemic, following a robust performance in 2023. The initial World Tourism Barometer from the UNWTO for the year reports that international tourism concluded 2023 at 88% of the levels seen before the pandemic, with around 1.3 billion international tourists. Factors contributing to this resurgence include a release of pent-up demand, enhanced air connectivity, and a more vigorous rebound in Asian tourism markets and destinations, leading to expectations of a full recovery by the year’s end.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: “The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism’s resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024. The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development”

In terms of regional performance in 2023, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa led the way, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. This detailed report tracks the sector’s progress, analyzing recovery across different regions, sub-regions, and destinations. Significant insights include:

• The Middle East surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with tourist arrivals 22% higher than in 2019.
• Europe, the most frequented region globally, attained 94% of its 2019 tourist levels, bolstered by intra-regional travel and visitors from the United States.
• Africa welcomed back 96% of its pre-pandemic tourists, and the Americas reached 90%.
• Asia and the Pacific saw a return to 65% of pre-pandemic levels, following the reopening of various markets and destinations. However, recovery rates varied within the region, with South Asia regaining 87% of its 2019 levels and North-East Asia around 55%.

The data for 2023 also shows substantial growth in international arrivals in both large, established destinations and smaller, emerging ones. Four sub-regions – Southern Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, Central America, and North Africa – exceeded their 2019 arrival figures.

Economically, international tourism made significant strides in 2023:

• International tourism receipts hit approximately USD 1.4 trillion, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned in 2019.
• Total export revenues from tourism, including passenger transport, were estimated at USD 1.6 trillion, nearly 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
• The direct gross domestic product from tourism was around USD 3.3 trillion, or 3% of global GDP, indicating a recovery to pre-pandemic levels driven by robust domestic and international tourism.

Furthermore, several destinations reported robust growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten to twelve months of 2023, sometimes outpacing the growth in arrivals. Strong outbound travel demand was also noted in several large source markets during this period, with many surpassing 2019 levels.

The sustained recovery is reflected in the performance of industry indicators. International air capacity and passenger demand recovered about 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023, according to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker and IATA data. Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly above the 62% recorded in November 2022, based on STR data.

Looking ahead to 2024, international tourism is anticipated to fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels, with initial projections suggesting a 2% growth above 2019 levels. However, this forecast from UNWTO is contingent on the pace of recovery in Asia and the development of existing economic and geopolitical risks.

The positive outlook for 2024 is echoed in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, where 67% of tourism professionals foresee better or significantly better prospects compared to 2023. About 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% predict a downturn in tourism compared to last year. Key factors influencing this outlook include:

• Significant recovery potential remains across Asia, with the reopening of key source markets and destinations expected to fuel global recovery.
• Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is projected to surge in 2024, driven by visa relaxations and improved air capacity. China has introduced visa-free travel for a year until 30 November 2024 for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia.
• Visa and travel facilitation measures are set to encourage travel within the Middle East and Africa. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries plan to implement a unified tourist visa akin to the Schengen visa, and measures to ease intra-African travel are underway in Kenya and Rwanda.
• Europe is likely to lead in tourism results again in 2024, with Romania and Bulgaria joining the Schengen area in March, and Paris hosting the Summer Olympics in July and August.
• Strong travel from the United States, supported by a robust US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and elsewhere. As seen in 2023, strong source markets in Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East will keep fueling tourism flows and spending globally.
• Economic and geopolitical challenges remain significant concerns for the continued recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, fluctuating oil prices, and trade disruptions could affect transport and accommodation costs in 2024.
• Tourists are likely to increasingly seek value for money and prefer traveling closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also become more important in consumer choices.
• Staff shortages continue to be a critical issue for tourism businesses, as they struggle to meet high demand with an adequate labor force.
• The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty arising from Russian aggression against Ukraine, along with other escalating geopolitical tensions, continues to influence confidence levels.

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