Vietnam Unites with China and Mongolia as PATA Forecasts Asia Pacific Tourism Surge to Nearly Eight Hundred Million Arrivals by 2028 as Drive Regional Travel Growth Momentum in Asia

Asia Pacific tourism has entered a new phase of expansion as the PATA and the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University predict that there will be an increase in the number of international visitors to 39 destinations of Asia Pacific region to 714.9 million in 2026, 758.8 million in 2027, and 789.2 million in 2028. The revised forecast reveals that the region will achieve 115.6 per cent of 2019 visitor numbers by the end of the forecast horizon.

Asia Pacific Moves Beyond Recovery Into A Sharper Growth Phase

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028: Mid-Year Update marks a crucial turning point for regional tourism planning. The report, published on 29 June 2026, provides updated international visitor arrival forecasts by destination region and sub-region, along with source-market updates for the 2026 to 2028 period. This matters because the region is no longer moving in a single, uniform recovery pattern. Some destinations are surging ahead, while others remain constrained by air capacity, costs, source-market behaviour, geopolitical risk and traveller confidence. PATA indicates that the winners will be destinations able to adapt faster, use better data and respond to constant market volatility.

Vietnam Emerges As The Fastest-Growing Major Destination

Among the region’s ten largest destinations, Vietnam is forecast to record the strongest growth between 2025 and 2027, with international visitor arrivals expected to climb 31.2 per cent to reach 27.8 million. This places Vietnam at the front of Asia Pacific’s next growth wave, supported by rising demand, stronger connectivity and continued tourism development. Other high-growth destinations are also expected to make strong gains. Macao, China is forecast to grow by 19.4 per cent, followed by Japan at 15.8 per cent, Hong Kong SAR at 13.9 per cent, Türkiye at 12.7 per cent and Malaysia at 11.6 per cent. These numbers show that destinations with strong access, clear tourism investment and distinctive visitor experiences are likely to outperform slower-growing markets.

China Remains The Giant, But Its Growth Is Slowing

China is projected to remain Asia Pacific’s largest destination, with 157.8 million international arrivals forecast in 2027. However, its growth is expected to reach only 2.2 per cent over 2025 levels, showing that the region’s biggest market is entering a more mature phase. This does not weaken China’s importance. It changes the competitive picture. A slower growth rate in a giant market means smaller or faster-moving destinations can capture more attention from airlines, investors and tour operators. Thailand and the United States are also expected to record more moderate gains of 5.2 per cent and 9.0 per cent respectively, indicating a more competitive environment for established tourism leaders.

Mongolia Leads The Recovery Race By 2028

Looking further ahead, Mongolia is forecast to achieve the highest recovery rate by 2028, reaching 177.8 per cent of its 2019 arrival levels. Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam and Sri Lanka are also projected to significantly exceed their pre-pandemic benchmarks. This is a major signal for destination marketers. Travellers are increasingly looking beyond only the largest gateways. Nature-led destinations, premium island markets, culture-rich countries and emerging adventure hubs are all gaining stronger appeal. Mongolia’s forecast suggests rising interest in wide-open landscapes, nomadic culture and less-crowded travel experiences.

Not Every Destination Will Fully Recover By 2028

The positive regional picture still contains uneven results. Thailand is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level only by 2028, while the United States, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar and several Pacific Island destinations are projected to remain in recovery mode through the end of the forecast period.

Across all 39 destinations, about 27 destinations are forecast to exceed pre-pandemic arrival volumes in 2027, rising to 30 destinations in 2028. This means recovery will broaden, but it will not be universal. Destinations still below 2019 levels will need sharper air-service strategies, better visa facilitation, targeted source-market campaigns and stronger confidence-building measures.

China And The United States Will Drive Outbound Travel Power

The forecast also gives strong guidance for tourism boards, airlines, airports and investors watching outbound travel flows. China is projected to remain the largest outbound source market in Asia Pacific in 2027, generating nearly 127 million visitor arrivals across the region. The United States is expected to follow with 65.2 million outbound visitor arrivals, with both markets forecast to grow by around 18 per cent compared with 2025.

Korea (ROK), Canada and Mexico are also expected to generate substantial outbound volumes, although growth will vary by market. For destination marketing organisations, this means strategy cannot rely only on total visitor growth. It must identify which source markets are expanding, which are cautious and which are changing destination preferences.

Source-Market Behaviour Will Shape The Next Travel Cycle

A separate PATA source-market analysis says Chinese travellers are expected to keep supporting outbound demand, although cautious spending and stronger domestic-travel preference may soften the pace of recovery. Hong Kong SAR and Macao, China are expected to remain the top two destinations for Chinese travellers through 2028.

The same PATA analysis forecasts that Korea (ROK) will generate 44 million outbound visitors to Asia Pacific destinations by 2028, with Japan, China and Vietnam expected to remain the leading destinations for Korean travellers. US travellers are also forecast to generate 66 million departures to Asia Pacific destinations by 2028, with Canada and Mexico maintaining their top positions.

Tourism Growth Will Depend On Air Links, Visa Policy And Costs

The outlook is positive, but PATA also identifies several risks. Geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, fuel prices, aviation costs and air-connectivity challenges could influence performance over the next few years. Inflation and higher living costs in some source markets may also reduce discretionary travel spending, especially for middle-income households and long-haul travellers.

At the same time, the growth opportunity remains clear. Expanding airline networks, airport development, improved visa facilitation and stronger intra-regional travel demand are expected to support many Asia Pacific destinations. This means destinations that coordinate aviation, border policy, marketing and product development will have a stronger chance of capturing the next wave of demand.

Data-Driven Planning Becomes The New Tourism Advantage

The report provides annual and quarterly forecasts for 39 destinations, alongside analysis of major source markets, destination performance trends and macroeconomic and geopolitical factors shaping the future of tourism. For travel businesses, this makes the forecast a planning tool rather than a simple numbers update. Hotels can use the data to plan investment and room supply. Airlines can assess route demand. Airports can prepare capacity. Tourism boards can target stronger campaigns. Investors can identify destinations where recovery has already turned into expansion. In a market shaped by volatility, data becomes a competitive advantage.

Asia Pacific’s Next Tourism Winners Will Be Agile And Experience-Led

However, the PATA mid-year forecast delivers one message loud and clear – Asia Pacific tourism is growing, but not all destinations are going to benefit from that growth. Vietnam is booming, China is leading but becoming less youthful, Mongolia is expected to outpace others in recovery rates, while Japan, Maldives, Sri Lanka and other dynamic markets will surpass pre-crisis levels.

In the tourism industry, what comes next will be determined by adaptability. Destinations have to focus on improving connectivity, controlling expenses, enhancing their digital capabilities, attracting diverse sources of visitors and creating new tourist experiences that respond to the changed tourists’ needs. Asia Pacific could be long way past its recovery by 2028, but what will make the most successful destinations in the region will be smart and sustainable growth.

Image Source: PATA