New forecast predicts ongoing struggles for U.S. in international and domestic business travel

Thursday, January 18, 2024

The U.S. Travel Association unveiled its biannual travel forecast for the United States through 2027, indicating that international inbound travel and domestic business travel are expected to lag behind pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The forecast, prepared by Tourism Economics, follows the recent release of a global competitiveness report by Euromonitor International, revealing the U.S. ranked 17th out of 18 top travel markets due to historical underinvestment and a lack of coordinated focus from federal policymakers.

U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman emphasized the need for specific federal policies to revitalize the travel industry, noting the global competition where other countries are outpacing the United States in regaining the international travel market.

Forecast Highlights:

1. International travel to the U.S. is projected to grow, but full pre-pandemic recovery is anticipated in 2025. Challenges such as a global economic slowdown, a strong dollar, and prolonged visa wait times may impede growth, with volume reaching 98% of 2019 levels in 2024 and spending levels not expected to recover until 2026.
2. Competing countries have surpassed the U.S. in recovering pre-pandemic visitation rates, with some, like France and Spain, expanding their global travel market share. In contrast, the U.S. global market share is declining.
3. Business travel is expected to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate, reaching 95% of 2019 levels by year-end. Slowing economic growth will impact the recovery, with full volume recovery expected in 2026. Domestic business travel spending is not projected to return to pre-pandemic levels within the forecast range.
4. Domestic leisure growth slowed in 2023 due to consumer spending constraints, higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions, and the resumption of student loan repayments. The sector achieved a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2022.

Policies to Boost Travel:

The U.S. Travel Association advocates for several federal policies to enhance travel growth and global competitiveness, including:

• Lowering U.S. visitor visa interview wait times, currently averaging around 400 days in top visa-requiring inbound markets.
• Reducing Customs wait times at U.S. airports and other ports of entry facing excessive delays.
• Accelerating the deployment of biometric entry-exit security screening systems at U.S. airports.
• Improving the overall air travel experience through a comprehensive Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization bill.
• Increasing federal prioritization and focus on travel industry growth, aligning with strategies employed by other nations.

To address these issues, U.S. Travel has established the Seamless and Secure Travel Commission, composed of former government officials and private sector experts. This commission aims to provide policy recommendations to modernize the travel experience, enhance U.S. competitiveness, and promote industry growth, with plans to release its recommendations in autumn 2024.

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