Jordan Leads Saudi Arabia and Other Middle East Countries in Tourism Recovery as US Tourist Arrival Decline Narrows Later in 2026
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Jordan leads Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries in tourism recovery as the US tourist arrival decline narrows later in 2026, driven by restored air connectivity, expanding flight networks, improving traveller confidence and renewed demand after major regional aviation disruptions earlier in the year.
Jordan has emerged as the strongest recovery market among the five Middle Eastern destinations analysed, as U.S.-originating air travel began recovering from severe disruption earlier in 2026. The supplied data shows Jordan only 1.7% below its 2025 January-August level, substantially outperforming Israel at −5.1%, Saudi Arabia at −14.1%, the UAE at −21.9% and Qatar at −39.8%.
The recovery, however, is not uniform. The Middle East suffered major aviation disruption in March as regional conflict triggered airspace closures, flight suspensions and network reductions. Qatar temporarily closed its airspace, while airlines across the Gulf and wider region operated reduced schedules or rerouted aircraft. As operations returned, passenger numbers began recovering, but the speed of that rebound differed sharply between destinations.
The underlying figures are U.S. Citizen Originating air-passenger data. They are a useful indicator of U.S.-originating travel demand but include leisure, business, family, religious and other journeys, so they should not be interpreted as pure tourist-arrival statistics.
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Jordan — Strong Summer Rebound Leaves Market Just 1.7% Below 2025
Jordan has delivered the strongest overall recovery among the five destinations. U.S. citizen-originating air passengers reached 94,599 between January and August 2026, compared with 96,249 during the same period in 2025. That leaves Jordan down just 1.7%, or only 1,650 passengers, despite suffering substantial losses earlier in the year.
The recovery becomes clearer when the monthly pattern is examined. March traffic fell 42.2%, followed by an even deeper 52.9% decline in April as regional conflict disrupted aviation, raised operating costs and weakened traveller confidence. By June, however, the direction had completely changed. U.S.-originating traffic surged 23.9% in June, 31.4% in July and another 8.4% in August.
Air connectivity has been central to this turnaround. Royal Jordanian continued operating during difficult regional conditions and expanded its international network. A new nonstop Amman-Dallas route launched in May, making Dallas the airline’s fifth U.S. destination alongside New York, Chicago, Detroit and Washington. Royal Jordanian also added aircraft and expanded other routes, increasing the options available to international travellers.
Jordan has another advantage: its tourism product is highly distinctive. Petra, Wadi Rum, the Dead Sea, Aqaba, ancient archaeological sites, religious heritage and desert experiences give U.S. visitors multiple reasons to travel beyond a conventional city holiday. The combination of recovering confidence, greater airline capacity and strong destination appeal helps explain why Jordan moved ahead of its regional peers during summer.
U.S. Citizen Originating Air Passengers to Jordan
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 8,519 | 8,507 | −0.1% |
| February | 7,332 | 6,413 | −12.5% |
| March | 8,978 | 5,190 | −42.2% |
| April | 10,463 | 4,924 | −52.9% |
| May | 15,431 | 14,011 | −9.2% |
| June | 15,754 | 19,525 | +23.9% |
| July | 16,304 | 21,429 | +31.4% |
| August | 13,468 | 14,600 | +8.4% |
| Jan–Aug Total | 96,249 | 94,599 | −1.7% |
Israel — Dramatic Swings Keep Recovery Fragile Despite Strong Rebounds
Israel recorded one of the most volatile patterns in the entire dataset. U.S. citizen-originating passengers totalled 190,171 during January-August 2026, compared with 200,349 a year earlier, leaving traffic down 5.1%, or 10,178 passengers.
The year initially appeared exceptionally strong. January traffic jumped 110.4%, followed by growth of 68.8% in February. The direction then reversed dramatically. March plunged 76.5%, April declined 49.4%, and May remained down 31.4%.
This volatility reflects the close relationship between Israel’s tourism recovery and aviation security. Regional conflict, airspace uncertainty and airline suspensions sharply reduced available international capacity during periods of escalation. When conditions improved and flights returned, passenger demand responded quickly. This is visible in June, when U.S.-originating traffic rebounded by 73.2%.
The recovery nevertheless remained unstable. July slipped 9.8%, followed by a 27.1% decline in August. Israel continues to have strong underlying U.S. demand because of religious tourism, family connections, business links and destinations such as Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the Dead Sea. But aviation reliability and regional security remained powerful constraints on converting that demand into consistent passenger growth.
U.S. Citizen Originating Air Passengers to Israel
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 19,302 | 40,609 | +110.4% |
| February | 17,734 | 29,937 | +68.8% |
| March | 18,573 | 4,359 | −76.5% |
| April | 38,971 | 19,710 | −49.4% |
| May | 30,291 | 20,792 | −31.4% |
| June | 15,089 | 26,130 | +73.2% |
| July | 26,774 | 24,138 | −9.8% |
| August | 33,615 | 24,496 | −27.1% |
| Jan–Aug Total | 200,349 | 190,171 | −5.1% |
Saudi Arabia — Two Months of Growth Signal a Clearer Late-Summer Recovery
Saudi Arabia remained 14.1% below the previous year during January-August, but its later monthly figures point towards a much healthier trajectory. U.S. citizen-originating passengers declined from 57,230 in 2025 to 49,155 in 2026, a reduction of 8,075 passengers.
The biggest shock came in April, when traffic collapsed 61.5%. February was down 27.2%, March declined 13.1%, and May fell 19.7%. Regional aviation disruption and wider geopolitical uncertainty created a difficult environment for discretionary long-haul travel during this period.
The decline then narrowed dramatically. June was only 3.8% below 2025 before July returned to 4.9% growth. August strengthened further, increasing 7.9% year on year. Saudi Arabia therefore ended the supplied period with two consecutive months of positive growth.
The improvement also comes as Saudi Arabia continues its large-scale tourism transformation. Riyadh and Jeddah are expanding as city destinations, while AlUla, Red Sea resorts, heritage tourism, entertainment projects and religious travel are broadening the country’s visitor economy. Saudi tourism spending reached record levels in 2025, providing a strong underlying base entering 2026.
The numbers suggest the spring decline was more closely associated with an extraordinary period of regional disruption than a complete loss of U.S. demand for Saudi Arabia.
U.S. Citizen Originating Air Passengers to Saudi Arabia
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 7,898 | 8,104 | +2.6% |
| February | 7,083 | 5,157 | −27.2% |
| March | 7,461 | 6,485 | −13.1% |
| April | 7,407 | 2,852 | −61.5% |
| May | 6,249 | 5,018 | −19.7% |
| June | 8,896 | 8,554 | −3.8% |
| July | 7,200 | 7,550 | +4.9% |
| August | 5,036 | 5,435 | +7.9% |
| Jan–Aug Total | 57,230 | 49,155 | −14.1% |
UAE — Massive Spring Losses Give Way to a Rapid Aviation Recovery
The UAE recorded 470,169 U.S. citizen-originating passengers during January-August 2026, down from 602,363 in the corresponding 2025 period. That represents a substantial decline of 21.9%, equivalent to 132,194 fewer passengers.
Yet the cumulative figure hides one of the clearest recovery curves in the dataset.
January actually started 6.9% above the previous year. March then plunged 82.6%, followed by a 66.8% decline in April. These exceptional losses coincided with major disruption to regional airspace and airline operations.
The recovery accelerated once aviation networks were restored. Emirates progressively rebuilt its operation and by May had restored 96% of its global network, serving 137 destinations. Although capacity had not fully returned to pre-disruption levels, the restoration gave U.S. travellers considerably more options through Dubai.
That change is visible in the data. The decline narrowed from 26.0% in May to 7.2% in June, 5.8% in July and only 4.5% in August.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi also benefit from an unusually broad tourism proposition. Luxury hotels, beaches, shopping, desert experiences, entertainment, major sporting events, business travel and world-class connecting hubs allow the UAE to capture both destination visitors and passengers travelling onwards.
The UAE had not recovered its enormous spring losses by August, but its monthly trajectory suggests that the underlying U.S. travel market was moving much closer to normal levels.
U.S. Citizen Originating Air Passengers to UAE
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 89,659 | 95,811 | +6.9% |
| February | 82,416 | 79,951 | −3.0% |
| March | 68,474 | 11,932 | −82.6% |
| April | 70,996 | 23,553 | −66.8% |
| May | 72,899 | 53,938 | −26.0% |
| June | 75,822 | 70,389 | −7.2% |
| July | 81,520 | 76,774 | −5.8% |
| August | 60,577 | 57,821 | −4.5% |
| Jan–Aug Total | 602,363 | 470,169 | −21.9% |
Qatar — Airspace Closure Leaves the Deepest Hole in U.S. Passenger Traffic
Qatar experienced by far the largest cumulative decline. U.S. citizen-originating passengers fell from 559,352 during January-August 2025 to 336,531 in 2026. That represents a collapse of 39.8%, or 222,821 fewer passengers.
The reason becomes particularly clear in March.
Qatari airspace was closed at the end of February amid regional security concerns, forcing Qatar Airways to suspend scheduled flight operations. Limited services were subsequently introduced through designated corridors before scheduled commercial operations gradually resumed.
The effect on U.S.-originating passenger traffic was extraordinary. March collapsed from 72,688 passengers in 2025 to just 676 in 2026, a year-on-year fall of 99.1%. April remained down 88.1%, while May was 61.1% lower.
However, Qatar’s recovery in absolute passenger numbers was substantial. Traffic increased from 676 in March to 8,249 in April, 26,212 in May, 49,884 in June and 61,089 in July.
Qatar Airways progressively restored its network as approved air corridors reopened. The carrier moved towards more than 90 destinations in late March, more than 120 by mid-May and planned service to more than 150 destinations from mid-June.
Doha’s tourism proposition also remains strong, combining museums, luxury hospitality, shopping, sporting infrastructure, stopover tourism and one of the world’s most important international aviation hubs.
The critical distinction is that Qatar’s 39.8% YTD decline reflects the enormous losses accumulated during the shutdown period. By August, traffic was still 20.8% below 2025, showing that recovery was underway but remained incomplete.
U.S. Citizen Originating Air Passengers to Qatar
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 74,824 | 74,891 | +0.1% |
| February | 71,715 | 64,700 | −9.8% |
| March | 72,688 | 676 | −99.1% |
| April | 69,042 | 8,249 | −88.1% |
| May | 67,466 | 26,212 | −61.1% |
| June | 62,914 | 49,884 | −20.7% |
| July | 76,518 | 61,089 | −20.2% |
| August | 64,185 | 50,830 | −20.8% |
| Jan–Aug Total | 559,352 | 336,531 | −39.8% |
Middle East Recovery Shows a Clear Divide
When the five destinations are compared, Jordan stands out because it has almost completely erased its accumulated decline. Saudi Arabia has also moved back into monthly growth, while the UAE has dramatically narrowed its deficit. Qatar is recovering in absolute terms but still carries the largest cumulative loss.
Destination Jan–Aug 2025 Jan–Aug 2026 YoY Change Passenger Difference Jordan 96,249 94,599 −1.7% −1,650 Israel 200,349 190,171 −5.1% −10,178 Saudi Arabia 57,230 49,155 −14.1% −8,075 UAE 602,363 470,169 −21.9% −132,194 Qatar 559,352 336,531 −39.8% −222,821 Combined 1,515,543 1,140,625 −24.7% −374,918
The five destinations collectively lost 374,918 U.S. citizen-originating passengers, with traffic falling 24.7% from the corresponding 2025 period. But that headline number is heavily influenced by the extraordinary aviation disruption experienced in March and April, particularly in Qatar and the UAE.
Why Jordan is leading the recovery
Jordan’s advantage becomes clearer when the latest three months are separated from the cumulative totals. It recorded positive growth in June, July and August, including a remarkable 31.4% increase in July. Saudi Arabia also finished the period positively, while the UAE reduced its deficit to only 4.5% by August.
Jordan benefited from an important structural difference: Royal Jordanian maintained operations during much of the disruption while expanding its network. New aircraft strengthened its fleet, and the launch of Dallas-Amman service created another direct bridge between the United States and Jordan.
The country’s tourism proposition also supports recovery. Petra provides an internationally recognised anchor attraction, but Jordan can sell a much wider itinerary encompassing Wadi Rum, the Dead Sea, Aqaba, Amman, archaeological sites, religious tourism and desert adventure. This diversity gives tour operators several ways to package the destination once flight access and traveller confidence improve.
Why Qatar suffered the largest decline
Qatar’s numbers demonstrate how aviation disruption can overwhelm underlying tourism demand. Doha functions simultaneously as a destination and a huge international connecting hub. When Qatari airspace closed and Qatar Airways suspended scheduled flights, passenger flows were interrupted almost immediately.
That explains the extraordinary 99.1% March decline far better than a sudden disappearance of traveller interest in Doha.
The subsequent recovery supports this interpretation. Passenger volume climbed from only 676 in March to more than 50,000 by August. Nevertheless, months of lost capacity created a cumulative deficit too large to recover within the first eight months.
Why the UAE recovered faster
The UAE benefited from the scale of its aviation ecosystem and the rapid restoration of Emirates operations. By May, Emirates had restored 96% of its global network, although available capacity remained below its previous level.
This helped bring U.S.-originating traffic progressively closer to the previous year’s figures. The improvement from an 82.6% decline in March to only 4.5% in August is one of the strongest signs of operational recovery in the dataset.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi also serve multiple traveller segments. Leisure tourists, business travellers, stopover passengers, visiting friends and relatives, luxury travellers and connecting passengers all contribute to traffic, providing the market with several channels through which demand can recover.
Saudi Arabia is emerging as another late-year recovery market
Saudi Arabia’s cumulative 14.1% decline remains significant, but its monthly direction is considerably stronger than the headline total suggests.
The country moved from a 61.5% fall in April to only 3.8% down in June, before returning to positive territory in both July and August.
Continued investment in tourism infrastructure, entertainment, heritage destinations, Red Sea development,
Jordan leads Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries in tourism recovery as US tourist arrival decline narrows later in 2026, supported by restored flights, stronger connectivity, expanding tourism initiatives and improving demand after regional disruptions.
In conclusion, Jordan leads Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries in tourism recovery as the US tourist arrival decline narrows later in 2026, with destinations benefiting from restored aviation networks, improving traveller confidence and renewed international demand. While Qatar and the UAE experienced deeper losses after major flight disruptions, their passenger trends showed gradual recovery as services resumed. Jordan’s strong rebound was supported by expanded connectivity and diverse tourism attractions, while Saudi Arabia also moved towards positive growth momentum. The changing recovery patterns highlight how air access, destination appeal and tourism investment are shaping the Middle East’s return of US-originating travel.
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