UNWTO forecasts international tourism return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024

Friday, January 19, 2024

After a robust performance in 2023, international tourism is poised to make a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, as indicated by the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. The report reveals that international tourism concluded 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with approximately 1.3 billion international arrivals. Key factors contributing to this recovery include the release of pent-up demand, improved air connectivity, and a more robust rebound of Asian markets and destinations, with expectations of a complete recovery by the end of 2024.

In terms of regional performance in 2023:

• The Middle East led the recovery, surpassing pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above those in 2019.
• Europe, the most visited region globally, reached 94% of 2019 levels, driven by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
• Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors, and the Americas reached 90%.
• Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with variations in performance across sub-regions.

The economic impact of the recovery is evident, with international tourism receipts reaching USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, approximately 93% of the earnings in 2019. Total export revenues from tourism, including passenger transport, are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion, almost 95% of the 2019 figures. Preliminary estimates for the economic contribution of tourism indicate USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, constituting 3% of global GDP.

Looking ahead to 2024, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels, with a projected 2% growth above 2019 levels. The UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey reflects a positive outlook, with 67% of tourism professionals anticipating better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Key considerations for the coming year include continued recovery in Asia, accelerated Chinese outbound and inbound tourism, visa facilitation measures in various regions, and strong travel from the United States.

However, challenges persist, including economic and geopolitical headwinds such as inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices, and trade disruptions. Tourists are anticipated to prioritize value for money, sustainable practices, and travel closer to home. Staff shortages in the tourism industry remain a critical issue, and geopolitical tensions, including the Hamas-Israel conflict and the Russian aggression against Ukraine, may impact traveler confidence.

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