US-China Aviation Tensions Put New York Tourism Recovery in Spotlight as High-Value Chinese Travel Lags
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US-China aviation will be back in the spotlight as senior officials from both countries prepare for economic talks in New York on September 20, 2026. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent will have their first in-person talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. These talks will take place prior to the working meetings between the leaders of both countries in Washington DC. Tourism from China has been slower to recover to pre-pandemic levels, however, it is an important market for the US and has high economic potential. New York is especially interested in stronger tourism ties with China. With international borders now reopened, travel from China is expected to provide a boost to the US tourism industry and help New York City businesses serve the needs of international visitors.
Quick Summary
- US-China aviation tensions are putting renewed attention on the slow recovery of Chinese travel to the United States.
- Chinese visitors remain highly valuable, with official US data showing significant tourism spending despite arrivals remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
- New York has major exposure to the recovery, with stronger Chinese arrivals potentially supporting hotels, attractions, restaurants and the wider visitor economy.
New York Talks Put a Wider Travel Relationship Back in Focus
The immediate meeting is about economics and trade, not a formally announced tourism agreement.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative confirmed that Greer will join Bessent in New York on Sunday, 20 September, to meet He Lifeng ahead of the US-China summit in Washington. Greer said the administration would focus on implementation of recent commitments, trade in non-sensitive goods and improved market access.
USTR has not listed tourism, visas or passenger air services as specific items on the public agenda. Any suggestion that the meeting will directly change airline capacity would therefore go beyond what officials have announced.
Yet the location and timing give the meeting a significant travel dimension. China remains one of the most valuable but incompletely recovered inbound tourism markets for the United States, while New York remains one of America’s most important destinations for overseas travellers.
China Was Once America’s Biggest Travel Export Market
The scale of the missing Chinese visitor economy becomes clear when the pre-pandemic figures are examined.
The US Department of Commerce says China was the largest source market for US travel export dollars during 2015–2019. Chinese visitors accounted for 13.6% of US travel exports over that period.
In 2019 alone, the United States received around 2.8 million Chinese visitors. They spent approximately $33.3 billion, according to Commerce Department market data.
The pandemic then transformed the market. Chinese arrivals fell to just 192,000 in 2021, a 93% decline from 2019, before recovering to 368,000 in 2022.
By 2023, arrivals had climbed to almost 1.1 million, but that was still only 38% of the 2019 level.
| Indicator | Official figure |
|---|---|
| Chinese visitors to US in 2019 | 2.8 million |
| Chinese visitor spending in 2019 | $33.3 billion |
| Chinese visitors in 2021 | 192,000 |
| Chinese visitors in 2022 | 368,000 |
| Chinese visitors in 2023 | Nearly 1.1 million |
| 2023 recovery versus 2019 | 38% |
| Chinese visitor spending in 2023 | Nearly $21 billion |
Source: US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration and NTTO.
The numbers make China unusual. Visitor volumes remained deeply depressed, yet the market continued to generate substantial economic value.
Chinese Travellers Remain a High-Value Market
Nearly 1.1 million Chinese arrivals generated almost $21 billion in US spending in 2023, according to the Commerce Department. That spending represented about 14% of US exports to China.
Chinese travellers also tended to stay longer. Commerce Department data put their average US stay at 35 days in 2023, while more than half of Chinese travel to the country involved stays longer than two weeks.
That makes the Chinese tourism recovery particularly relevant for destinations such as New York.
A visitor staying several weeks can spread spending across accommodation, restaurants, attractions, shopping, domestic transport and other services. The economic importance of the market therefore cannot be measured through arrival numbers alone.
Official 2026 Forecast Shows Recovery Is Still Gradual
The latest official federal forecast provides an important reality check.
The National Travel and Tourism Office’s April 2026 forecast projects 1.617 million Chinese arrivals in 2026, compared with 1.562 million in 2025. That represents growth of 3.5% this year.
The same forecast expects the recovery to accelerate later.
| Year | Chinese arrivals forecast | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 actual | 1.562 million | — |
| 2026 | 1.617 million | +3.5% |
| 2027 | 1.778 million | +9.9% |
| 2028 | 1.935 million | +8.9% |
| 2029 | 2.091 million | +8.0% |
| 2030 | 2.245 million | +7.4% |
Source: NTTO International Visitor Forecast, April 2026.
The forecast is striking because even by 2030, projected Chinese arrivals remain below the roughly 2.8 million recorded in 2019.
That makes China one of the clearest examples of an international market where recovery in US inbound tourism remains unfinished.
US-China Aviation Has Been Central to the Recovery Story
Air connectivity has long been part of the problem.
When the pandemic disrupted international aviation, passenger services between the two countries fell sharply. The US Department of Transportation and Chinese authorities subsequently managed access through reciprocal flight permissions.
In 2020, the US Department of Transportation explicitly said its objective was the restoration of passenger air travel between the countries. The department adjusted Chinese airline frequencies as China changed the number of services available to American carriers.
The Commerce Department later identified air service as an important factor in tourism recovery. Its 2024 market analysis stated that resumption of air transportation services between China and the United States would improve the outlook for visitor recovery.
This history matters when assessing US-China aviation in 2026. Air access influences available seats, routing choices and the practical ease of making a long-haul journey, even though no aviation agreement has been announced as part of the 20 September economic talks.
New York Has More at Stake Than the Meeting Venue
New York is not simply hosting the negotiations.
The city is one of the biggest beneficiaries of international tourism in the United States. NTTO reported that New York was the most-visited US state by overseas travellers in 2023, while New York City was the country’s most-visited city among overseas travellers.
Chinese travellers have historically been particularly important.
Commerce Department data show that 34% of Chinese travellers to the United States visited New York in 2022, making it the second-most-visited state for the market after California.
New York City Tourism + Conventions later forecast 833,000 Chinese visitors to New York City in 2024, more than double the previous year’s level.
That gives the diplomatic meeting an unusual geographic backdrop. Officials are discussing the broader US-China economic relationship inside a city with considerable exposure to the recovery of Chinese travel.
New York Tourism Is Entering 2026 From a Stronger Base
New York’s wider visitor economy has continued growing despite volatility in international markets.
New York City Tourism + Conventions reported that the city received 65.1 million visitors in 2025, exceeding its forecast. Those visitors generated $84.7 billion in economic impact and supported more than 388,000 leisure and hospitality jobs.
Hotel demand reached 38.1 million room nights, up 2% from 2024. The average daily hotel rate increased 5% to $334.
The official destination organisation expects 66.3 million visitors in 2026, representing approximately 2% growth. International visitation is projected to reach 12.9 million, returning to its 2024 level, while business travel is forecast at 12.8 million.
| New York City tourism indicator | 2025/2026 figure |
|---|---|
| 2025 total visitors | 65.1 million |
| 2025 economic impact | $84.7 billion |
| Leisure and hospitality jobs supported | 388,000+ |
| Hotel room nights sold | 38.1 million |
| 2025 average daily hotel rate | $334 |
| 2026 visitor forecast | 66.3 million |
| 2026 international visitor forecast | 12.9 million |
| 2026 business travel forecast | 12.8 million |
Source: New York City Tourism + Conventions, March 2026.
Why Chinese Recovery Matters to New York Hotels and Businesses
International travellers are particularly important to large gateway cities because their trips can touch many parts of the visitor economy.
Chinese travellers’ historically long stays and high aggregate spending mean recovery can matter to hotels, restaurants, retailers, attractions, tour operators and transport providers.
For hotels, international growth arrives as New York continues adding capacity. The city’s official tourism organisation reported approximately 124,000 hotel rooms in 2025, with 24 projects representing another 5,778 rooms in active development through 2028.
For attractions and local businesses, the opportunity is similarly broad. The value lies not merely in bringing travellers through airports but in converting international arrivals into spending across the five boroughs.
Tourism Has Already Had Its Own US-China Diplomatic Channel
There is also precedent for governments treating tourism as part of the bilateral relationship.
The United States and China held their 14th Tourism Leadership Summit in Xi’an in May 2024. The event brought together destination organisations, tour operators, online travel agencies, attractions, transportation companies and government representatives.
The Commerce Department said restoring Chinese visitation to 2019 levels could support more than 50,000 direct American jobs. When indirect employment and students were included, the department estimated an impact of around 400,000 jobs.
That does not mean Sunday’s economic negotiations will address tourism. It does show that both countries have previously maintained a formal tourism dialogue aimed at rebuilding travel.
US Tourism Forecast Points to Growth but Not a Full Chinese Comeback
America’s wider international tourism market is forecast to expand this year.
NTTO projects total international arrivals will rise 3.2% to 70.5 million in 2026, from 68.3 million in 2025. The agency expects the FIFA World Cup to contribute to visitor demand.
Total international visitation is forecast to reach 85.2 million by 2030, a 25% increase from 2025.
China, however, follows a different recovery curve. The official forecast shows only modest growth this year followed by stronger annual gains from 2027 onwards.
For New York, that means the Chinese market remains an important source of potential incremental international demand rather than a market that has already returned to its former scale.
What Travellers Should Know
The 20 September meeting itself does not change entry rules, visa requirements or airline schedules.
Travellers should therefore avoid interpreting diplomatic headlines as immediate changes to US-China travel. Any new flight, visa or border measure would require a separate announcement from the relevant government or aviation authority.
Passengers planning China-US journeys should continue checking current visa requirements and confirmed airline schedules before booking. Connecting itineraries may also differ considerably in journey time and price, making schedule comparison important for long-haul travel.
What the Official Outlook Says Comes Next
The strongest indication of future direction comes from NTTO rather than political speculation.
Its April 2026 forecast expects Chinese arrivals to increase from 1.617 million this year to 2.245 million by 2030. Growth is projected to accelerate to 9.9% in 2027 before moderating gradually through the end of the forecast period.
That still leaves Chinese arrivals below 2019 levels at the end of the current forecast horizon.
The numbers therefore point to a long recovery rather than a sudden rebound. For New York and other major US gateways, rebuilding this market remains an important part of the broader international tourism story.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are the US-China talks expected to change flights between China and the United States?
No official announcement says the 20 September meeting will change passenger flight rights or schedules. USTR describes the talks as economic and trade consultations. Travellers should wait for separate announcements from aviation regulators or airlines before assuming any change in air services.
Is Chinese tourism to the United States back to pre-pandemic levels?
No. NTTO recorded about 1.562 million Chinese arrivals in 2025 and forecasts approximately 1.617 million in 2026. That remains well below the roughly 2.8 million Chinese arrivals recorded in 2019.
Why is New York important to the Chinese visitor market?
New York is one of America’s leading international gateways. Federal tourism data ranked New York as the most-visited US state by overseas travellers in 2023, while historical Commerce Department data show it has been one of the leading states visited by Chinese travellers.
Chinese Tourism Recovery Remains a Major Prize for New York
The forthcoming meetings in New York will probably involve China, the biggest international market for inbound travel to the USA. However, the sector is still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. International travelers spend money in New York’s hotels, restaurants, shops, and other businesses. The meetings should address international travel and tourism. There is little doubt that the lack of direct flights between the USA and China has disrupted tourism. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 2.8 million Chinese tourists traveled to the USA each year. By 2026, it is expected that only 1.6 million will travel to the USA. The tourism industry is still concerned that the current situation will discourage the USA and China from improving air connectivity to boost tourism.
