Hawaii Tourism Braces for Hurricane Lowell as Category 5 Storm Drives Dangerous Pacific Swells

Written By: Ankita Neogi Khan

Ankita Neogi Khan

With over 15 years of experience in digital media, I bring a strong foundation in language, journalism, and storytelling to travel reporting. A graduate in English (Honours) from Presidency College with a Master's in Journalism and Mass Communication from the University of Calcutta, I began my career as a content curator before transitioning into travel journalism. I specialise in aviation, tourism trends, destination news, and industry insights, combining meticulous research, accuracy, and compelling storytelling to deliver credible, engaging, and insightful content for a global audience.

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September 3, 2026 10:22 AM |

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At 160 mph, Hurricane Lowell is now a Category 5 storm that is affecting travellers heading to Hawaii. The National Hurricane Center reported Lowell’s peak on Wednesday.

Lowell was a Category 5 at the time it was 715 km to the south of Hilo during the upgrade. The storm was moving to the west at 10 mph, with no warnings or watches, at that time.

Hawaii was not in urgent danger at that time, and forecasters emphasized that could change. The risks were large swells and dangerous surf with rip currents.

Elsewhere, there was other activity in the Pacific. Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie made that area busy. The models also showed a good deal of uncertainty for Lowell’s future movements.

The timing matters in the travel industry, as July 2026 showed nearly 883,248 visitors and $1.99 billion of visiting expenditures in Hawaii. This makes things difficult for all aspects of the travel industry.

A Powerful Storm With An Uncertain Path

Lowell’s escalation was exceptionally rapid. On Tuesday morning, the system had only recently become a hurricane, with winds near 80 mph. By Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center recorded 160 mph winds and a central pressure of 927 millibars.

Forecasters attributed the strengthening to an unusually favourable environment. Lowell was moving over an area with very high oceanic heat content and low vertical wind shear. Its compact structure also featured a roughly 15-nautical-mile-wide eye surrounded by deep convection.

The storm’s intensity does not automatically mean a direct Hawaii landfall. Tropical cyclones can weaken, strengthen or change direction considerably over several days. For travellers, therefore, the forecast track matters more than the headline category alone.

The National Hurricane Center expected Lowell to continue westward initially. It then forecast a sharp turn towards the north or north-northeast around days four and five as an upper-level feature alters the steering pattern.

That forecast also contained an important warning about uncertainty. Models differed significantly on how sharply Lowell would turn. The official track envelope had shifted eastward at longer forecast ranges, keeping Hawaiian interests firmly in the monitoring phase.

Lowell’s Key Numbers for Travellers

Surf Could Arrive Before The Storm

For holidaymakers, the first visible effects may come from the ocean rather than wind. The National Hurricane Center warned that swells generated by Lowell would spread northwards across parts of the Hawaiian Islands. Those swells could create life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

That distinction is crucial for visitors. A destination can remain outside the forecast path while beaches become hazardous. Swimming, surfing, snorkelling, diving and small-boat excursions can therefore face restrictions before a storm approaches land.

Beach conditions can also change rapidly. A calm morning does not guarantee a safe afternoon, particularly when distant tropical systems generate long-period swells. Visitors should follow local beach warnings rather than rely on the appearance of the water.

The risk extends beyond leisure activities. Rough marine conditions can affect sightseeing cruises, fishing charters, inter-island excursions and other ocean-based tourism products. Operators may cancel or reschedule services when conditions become unsafe.

For travellers already in Hawaii, the practical response is straightforward. Do not enter the water when authorities issue dangerous-surf or rip-current warnings, even if skies remain bright.

Hawaii’s Tourism Economy Faces A Busy Test

The timing is important because Hawaii’s visitor economy remains substantial. DBEDT reported 883,248 visitors in July 2026, representing a 1.1% increase from July 2025. Visitor expenditure rose 1.7% to $1.99 billion.

Air connectivity was also stronger. Hawaii recorded 5,745 transpacific flights and 1.23 million seats during July, with capacity increasing from the previous year. Domestic services from the US mainland also expanded.

Those numbers demonstrate why tropical weather can have effects beyond individual holidays. Even modest operational changes can ripple through accommodation, aviation, attractions, car hire and visitor spending.

Maui, meanwhile, recorded 247,857 visitors in July, up 5.6% year on year. Visitor spending there reached $539.9 million, reinforcing the importance of stable visitor flows across the islands.

The broader recovery also remains uneven. During the first seven months of 2026, Hawaii received 5.92 million visitors, up 2.3% year on year. Spending reached $13.63 billion, an increase of 5.6%.

Hawaii Tourism At A Glance

Karina And Marie Complicate Pacific Planning

Lowell is not developing in isolation. Hurricane Karina remains a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific, while Tropical Storm Marie is moving near Mexico. The National Hurricane Center was issuing advisories on all three systems.

Karina matters because nearby tropical systems can influence steering patterns. Forecasters have been watching how the two hurricanes could interact, potentially changing Lowell’s future environment or track.

Marie creates a different travel consideration. The system is positioned near southwestern Mexico and could transport additional tropical moisture towards the US Southwest. That creates potential rainfall and flooding concerns well beyond Hawaii’s immediate weather zone.

The Pacific therefore presents a multi-system forecasting challenge, rather than a single-storm story. Travellers planning a multi-destination itinerary should monitor conditions across the entire route.

Cruise passengers also need to pay attention. Tropical systems can prompt itinerary changes when sea conditions deteriorate, even when ports themselves remain open. A vessel may alter its route to avoid hazardous waters.

El Niño Adds A Wider Climate Signal

The unusually active Pacific backdrop also has a larger climate context. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño during its latest assessment.

The official outlook indicated a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27. It also placed a 69% probability on an exceptionally strong October-December event.

That does not mean El Niño guarantees a particular hurricane path. Weather systems remain dependent on short-term atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, wind shear and steering currents.

However, the climate signal provides useful context for travel planners. A more active Pacific deserves closer monitoring, particularly during a period when visitors are making non-refundable bookings.

For corporate travel managers and tour operators, that means risk assessment should extend beyond individual weather forecasts. Flexible inventory, realistic cancellation terms and rapid customer communication become increasingly valuable.

What Travellers Should Do Now

Visitors travelling to Hawaii should not automatically cancel because Lowell has reached Category 5 intensity. At the cited advisory, there were no coastal watches or warnings, and the forecast did not establish a direct Hawaii landfall.

However, travellers should avoid treating the absence of warnings as a guarantee. The National Hurricane Center specifically advised interests in the Hawaiian Islands to continue closely monitoring Lowell.

The best approach is to check official forecasts repeatedly as departure approaches. The National Hurricane Center remains the primary source for the storm’s official track, intensity and hazard information.

Visitors should also check the Hawaiʻi Visitor Emergency Guide for island-specific emergency information. The guide provides county alert channels, weather resources, tsunami information and transportation guidance.

Air passengers should check their airline before leaving for the airport. Previous tropical-weather disruptions in Hawaii have shown that airports can remain operational while individual flights face delays or cancellations.

Travellers with tight connections should therefore build additional flexibility into their plans. That matters particularly for visitors moving between islands, where a delayed mainland arrival can disrupt a separate inter-island booking.

Practical Travel Planning During Tropical Activity

The key principle is flexibility rather than panic. Tropical forecasting can change materially within 24 to 48 hours, particularly when several systems interact.

Hawaii Has Recent Storm Lessons

Hawaii’s travel infrastructure has already faced tropical-weather disruption this season. In August, Tropical Storm Lala prompted airport closures on Hawaii Island and affected commercial ports across several islands.

Hilo International Airport and Ellison Onizuka Kona International Airport at Keāhole were temporarily closed during the response. Airlines had already advised that scheduled operations would be limited during the closure period.

Later, the Hawaii Tourism Authority reported that airports had reopened, although some flights remained delayed. It advised travellers to check directly with their airlines and allow additional time at airports.

That experience provides a useful operational precedent for Lowell. Airport status and flight status are not always the same thing. A functioning terminal does not guarantee that every scheduled service will operate normally.

Road transport can also become a secondary problem. Heavy rain, flooding, debris and damaged infrastructure can affect access to airports, hotels and attractions even after the main storm threat passes.

The Risk Is More Than Wind

For tourism businesses, hurricane exposure extends beyond direct wind damage. The more immediate commercial risks often involve cancellations, transport interruptions, beach closures, staff availability and supply-chain delays.

Hotels may face last-minute changes in occupancy. Restaurants and attractions can experience reduced footfall when visitors remain indoors. Meanwhile, airlines must continuously reassess aircraft rotations and crew logistics.

Travel advisers therefore have a valuable role. Rather than simply warning clients about a Category 5 storm, they can translate official forecasts into practical decisions.

That means identifying refundable accommodation, checking connection times and reviewing alternative activities. It also means ensuring travellers understand that weather disruption can continue after a storm changes direction or weakens.

For destination-management organisations, rapid communication is equally important. Clear information can prevent unnecessary cancellations when a destination remains open, while encouraging sensible precautions when specific hazards emerge.

What The Forecast Means For Holidaymakers

The most important message remains measured. Lowell is an exceptionally powerful hurricane, but strength alone does not establish a direct threat to Hawaii. The storm’s projected turn and interaction with the broader Pacific atmosphere remain critical variables.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast showed Lowell moving west for several days before turning north or north-northeast. At the same time, forecasters acknowledged substantial model spread over the precise shape of that turn.

For visitors, the sensible strategy is therefore to watch the forecast rather than react to the category number. Beach and marine hazards may become significant before any land-based impacts develop.

The wider tourism market also has reasons to remain attentive. Hawaii entered this weather episode with strong visitor volumes, growing air capacity and billions of dollars in annual visitor spending.

A prudent traveller should retain flexibility, monitor official alerts and verify transport arrangements. Until forecasts become clearer, preparedness is more useful than speculation.

Pacific Weather Demands Flexible Itineraries

Reclassified as a Pacific super typhoon, Lowell is now one of the strongest storms on Earth. Hawaii has positioned itself for all likelihoods due to Lowell’s intensity and rapid intensification.

This story goes beyond the typical tale of a category five hurricane bearing down on a vacation destination. It is about the administration of tourism in the age of uncertainty.

This becomes especially important due to Hawaii forecasted to have high visitor numbers for 2026. Large volumes of travel quickly makes weather intelligence a necessary pillar of destination management.

Until further official updates are released, flexible travel plans are advisable for all travel. Based on subsequent forecasts, Lowell will continue to be primarily a marine threat to offshore activities, or we will need to significantly change travel arrangements.