ACI World & ICAO Report: Global Air Passenger Traffic Surging Beyond 2019 Levels

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A joint report by Airports Council International (ACI) World and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) highlights the resurgence of global air passenger traffic, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and reaching 9.5 billion passengers (104% of 2019 levels).

The industry continues its upward trajectory, with long-term forecasts predicting 19.5 billion passengers by 2042 and 244% of 2019 levels by 2050.

Key Insights from the Report

• 2024 Full Recovery: The global air transport market is expected to fully recover in 2024, with Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) reaching 8.8 trillion (101% of 2019 levels).
• Emerging Markets Leading Growth: By 2052, China, India, Indonesia, and the United States will dominate as the largest passenger markets, reflecting the Asia-Pacific and Middle East’s expanding influence.
• Shifts in Top Routes: By 2052, domestic China/Mongolia, North America, and Southwest Asia will be key aviation corridors, alongside long-haul routes between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
• Long-Term Growth: Global passenger traffic is expected to grow at a 3.6% CAGR, while RPK is projected to expand by 4.2% annually, reaching 284% of 2019 levels by 2050.

Impact of COVID-19 and Recovery

The pandemic caused a severe 61% decline in global passenger traffic in 2020, with 5.5 billion fewer passengers (ACI World) and 5.8 trillion RPK lost (ICAO). However, by 2023, traffic rebounded to 95% of 2019 levels, with international travel accelerating recovery.

According to ICAO and ACI World, total passengers increased by 11% year-on-year (YoY) in June 2024, with international air traffic driving growth at 17% YoY, outpacing domestic gains.

Aviation Industry Forecast: Challenges & Opportunities

Positive Trends Driving Growth

• Global Economic Expansion: According to the IMF, world GDP growth is projected at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.
• Rising International Tourism: UNWTO forecasts 2% growth beyond 2019 levels in 2024.
• Stable Jet Fuel Prices: The IATA Jet Fuel Monitor reports prices declining by 23% YoY.
• Airline Profitability: IATA projects net airline profits at $30.5 billion in 2024.

Potential Risks

• Geopolitical Instability: Conflicts and trade tensions could disrupt the recovery.
• Aircraft Delivery Constraints: Supply chain disruptions have led to 11% fewer aircraft deliveries than forecast.

Conclusion

Global air travel is rebounding at a strong pace, with Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern markets driving long-term expansion.

As aviation continues to recover, ACI World and ICAO remain pivotal in shaping industry policies for sustainable and efficient air travel growth.